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The March to September - 2019
- Thread starter Tigerfan
- Start date
Next three weeks are important.
A middle team at a venue we don’t prefer (marvel)
A bottom team we need to treat seriously (Gold Coast)
A top team that will be chucking kitchen sinks at us (MCG)
3/3 is great
2 out of 3 is not great
1/3 makes it really hard.
A middle team at a venue we don’t prefer (marvel)
A bottom team we need to treat seriously (Gold Coast)
A top team that will be chucking kitchen sinks at us (MCG)
3/3 is great
2 out of 3 is not great
1/3 makes it really hard.
Coburgtiger said:
Not sure how you come to that conclusion of favourable draw. Based on ladder positions we have to play; 2nd, 3rd, 5th, 7th, 9th, 11th, 16th, 17th, 18th. We're currently 8th (12th by percentage) so a 5 win 4 loss scenario is reasonable. If we can sneak another win to make it 6 then we could sneak in to bottom half of the 8. Last year 15 wins was needed to make the 4. Can't see it with our current injury list and those playing half injured like Rioli and Vlastuin. Just have to be realistic. Injury has cruelled us this year.
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easy_tiger
Guest
Coburgtiger said:
16 wins would get us top 4, even with *smile* %.
but my ladder predictor has us winning 15, finishing 5th,
then beating Freo on The G in an elimination
then crows in Adelaide in the semi,
cats on The G in the prelim
then GWS in the GF
;D
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easy_tiger
Guest
At this stage in 2017, we had kicked over 100 twice and hadn't had 100 kicked against us
at this stage in 2018, we had kicked over 100 seven times and had 100 kicked against us once
in 2019 we have kicked over 100 once, but had 100 kicked against us 4 times.
our defence is the worry, obviously the perfect storm of injury making it unable to settle a back 6 post Rance.
If we are to contend this year, I think we would really need to be able to play the same back 6 uninterrupted for the next 3 months.
probably these blokes?
Houli Grimes Stackman
Vlastuin. Astbury Short/Broad?
at this stage in 2018, we had kicked over 100 seven times and had 100 kicked against us once
in 2019 we have kicked over 100 once, but had 100 kicked against us 4 times.
our defence is the worry, obviously the perfect storm of injury making it unable to settle a back 6 post Rance.
If we are to contend this year, I think we would really need to be able to play the same back 6 uninterrupted for the next 3 months.
probably these blokes?
Houli Grimes Stackman
Vlastuin. Astbury Short/Broad?
easy said:
its a fair point (except the crows kicked 140 against in '17, then the Crows and Weagles both scored 100+ in '18.)
obviously our undermanned midfield contributes to scores against, but i dont think we ahve figured out our best backline yet- continual injuries havent helped.
certainties to play if fit are Astbury, Grimes, Houli, Vlastuin (think he needs to stay back), Broad (as long as his form holds.) and Stack- IMO he needs to stay back for this year before any consistent move up the field.
that leaves 1 spot.- if Rance was to return it is his but that is unlikely.
I think they will continue to play Garth for a while to see how he fits next to Astbury. They may need to consider likely Sept opponents to see if the 2 'immobile' talls is an option- i dont mean immobile to denigrate, but neither of them are good options against quick forwards.
Short is an option, but he and Houli havent gone so well previously.
Edwards could stay back, but I think he is needed up field.
Menadue could play HBF, but I cant see him getting a game ahead of Short. he is better defensively but no by enough to make up for the offensive difference.
considering likely Sept opponents include the WEagles, the Crows and Giants i think we will give Garth every chance. Even the Pies and Cats have suitable match ups for he and Astbury. this allow Grimes to play on the best small forward, and allows Broad to cover leading options. it also allows the 2 of them to provide aerial support.
If Garth and Astbury dont work together then Short plays.
easy said:
Our forward line hasn't clicked either. We're 13th for average points scored this season with only Swans, Saints, Blues, Demons, Suns behind us. I think our backline has had excuses because of injuries to key position players. Our forward line just hasn't functioned and many players are playing well below their best. Obviously Reiwoldt is ultra important but we're going to have to start learning how to play without him as his time in the game is nearing an end.
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easy_tiger
Guest
tigerlove said:
agree our forward line isnt functioning great, largely due to Jacks absence and the midgets trying to work out their place in the Lynch mob
our mids aren't really working either, due to injury.
but if you compare the numbers I presented, its our backline that way below 2017 levels.
I think this is good and bad news.
bad, in that Rance wont come back (is that otter box challenge on rfc.com in real time? Rancey was jumping about piggy backing Grimes and looked right to go
good, in that with some continuity in the back 6, they can click (as they did against Port when Broad Vlastuin Astbury Grimes took 25 marks and looked very comfortable - im not sure if those 4 have coincided since?)
easy said:agree our forward line isnt functioning great, largely due to Jacks absence and the midgets trying to work out their place in the Lynch mob
our mids aren't really working either, due to injury.
but if you compare the numbers I presented, its our backline that way below 2017 levels.
I think this is good and bad news.
bad, in that Rance wont come back (is that otter box challenge on rfc.com in real time? Rancey was jumping about piggy backing Grimes and looked right to go
good, in that with some continuity in the back 6, they can click (as they did against Port when Broad Vlastuin Astbury Grimes took 25 marks and looked very comfortable - im not sure if those 4 have coincided since?)
The really good backlines that have stood the test of time seem to have real stability in terms of playing together over long periods of time. With Rancey out I think Astbury is critical as the key position defender which allows a bit more leeway for Grimes to run around and provide chop out and less pressure on an inexperienced Garthwaite. Atm having both Rance and Astbury out is way to hard to cover. Question is how will our backline look once Rance and Astbury move on. Rance is 30 soon and will become more susceptible to soft tissue injury particularly the way he plays. Astbury has never been quick and at 28yo this is going to become more and more of a liability. I think next year is probably our final year of having a premiership shot with the current crop of players. It does make it even more disappointing then the number of injuries we've had this year basically blowing any realistic tilt at a premiership.
I don't think we will make finals.
But I just checked the ladder and gee there are a lot of *smile* teams. Freo, Brisbane above us and Port, Bombers, Saints and Hawks below us. I don't think we are a top 8 but this has made me feel better.
For all of the equalization efforts, there is a huge gap between cats/pies/eagles and the rest of the comp.
But I just checked the ladder and gee there are a lot of *smile* teams. Freo, Brisbane above us and Port, Bombers, Saints and Hawks below us. I don't think we are a top 8 but this has made me feel better.
For all of the equalization efforts, there is a huge gap between cats/pies/eagles and the rest of the comp.
One thing is for sure, we need to start beating teams by 30 plus points to get a percentage back to a decent amount. Could be a major factor to finish top 4 with a home final.tigertim said:
I think the Saints game will tell the story. Unless we can fix the contested ball problems teams will continue to get a hold of us. At the moment we can't get hold of the ball enough to get our game plan up and running. Opposition teams would know that we are suspect at the coal face. Number one priority for 2020 is players who can win their own ball. Hopefully the chimp can hold up because Dusty and Prestia can't do it all on their own.
I don’t think this weeks games matter.
If the top teams win then we stay in the 8, if they lose we stay closer.
We just need to start winning.
If the top teams win then we stay in the 8, if they lose we stay closer.
We just need to start winning.
The march to September is still on, but it's going to be a difficult and examining journey for RFC.
I reckon we can make the eight and depending on how the Tigers hit the finals I believe everything is possible.
There is still so much to be gained form season 2019.
I reckon we can make the eight and depending on how the Tigers hit the finals I believe everything is possible.
There is still so much to be gained form season 2019.
Aside from Rance, all of our top tier players this season will have missed some games, but should be back and feeling fresh in time to run into some form. There are a lot of "ifs" here, but it's possible we could get a real head of steam up toward September with Cotch, Jack, Nankervis etc all fresher than last year and a run of games at the G. Add some of the new blokes to the mix (Lynch and Stack in particular) and we could be pretty hard to beat. Also - whats to say the other front runners, eg. , Cats et al won't hit the wall like we did last year? I had pretty much given up on this season, but am starting to believe we are in with a chance just because of that potential to build momentum with some fresh senior players (and the leadership they bring) coming back into the mix.
If we can beat Freo away and port away surely we can beat St Kilda at marvel.
Maybe we should the pack the team on a flight to Sydney, bring them straight back, stay at the Hilton and then go straight to marvel.
Maybe we should the pack the team on a flight to Sydney, bring them straight back, stay at the Hilton and then go straight to marvel.
