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Coronavirus

an_oxford_man

Tiger Champion
Nov 21, 2004
2,552
127
Civil unrest. Non compliance. Even if you take the virus seriously enough to actually get tested and diagnosed, flagrant lying to contract tracers ensures the spread continues.

Welcome to Victoria. The Transmission State.
 
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AngryAnt

Tiger Legend
Nov 25, 2004
27,017
14,794
I was talking to some colleagues with a bit of expertise in these areas the other day and our pure speculation followed this logic.

The first wave throughout Australia was generally the result of international travel and cruise ships.

People involved in that sort of activity are generally of a certain demographic and have the means and opportunity to isolate and follow the rules pretty solidly.

Because of the issues in Victoria with the quarantine debacle, they suffered a second wave where people from another demographic, this time low paid staff like security, cleaners etc were exposed and the pressures on them to not isolate or follow rules are much greater, hence it spreads more and is harder to contain.

In a lot of ways it is a pretty typical pattern of most health issues, your socio-economic status is very reflective of your susceptibility, prognosis ability to recover and recovery time.

Like I said pure speculation but I think there is logic in it.
Not speculation, that's pretty clear from what we know.

Some people in those demographics have screwed up, some have been the victims of having no choice but to work in difficult and dangerous circumstances.
 
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Althom

Tiger Superstar
Jul 23, 2016
1,175
1,027
The Chief Health Officer, Brett Sutton, said the challenge in Victoria was "profoundly different from equivalent case numbers in any other jurisdiction of Australia".

He said many of the people infected in Victoria's second wave faced a challenging set of social circumstances.

"Through this second wave, the 20,000 cases that occurred across Victoria settled into the hardest cohorts and populations across the state, including in metropolitan Melbourne," he said.

Professor Sutton said while the average household in Victoria had 2.5 people, many of the households at the centre of clusters were much larger.

"We're thinking that, on average, the household sizes that we're following up are twice to three times that size," he said.

"That means more workplaces exposed, and it goes on exponentially. Those workplaces have people working there who have households that are two or three times the size of an average Victorian household.

"So, the number of close contacts per household, and the number of close contacts they have, is hugely different."
He pointed to Victoria's "challenges of casualised work, of cash-in-hand, of issues of visa status, issues of language and cultural barriers".



So does NSW not have a casualised workforce, a cash in hand economy or any non-english speakers? Surely they had some large households at the centres of some clusters? NSW had over 100 cases per days for 2 weeks straight? Surely they faced the same challenges we did at that point? But somehow managed to bring the numbers down without 10 weeks of Stage 4 restrictions? Not sure you can say don't compare jurisdictions, he makes it seem like we are on another planet.

So we are either really really really unlucky or we are managing it differently and what we are doing is not as effective as in NSW. I thought I did read that we had accepted some help/advice in regards contact tracing.

Would like some further explanations on what he means when he says "Through this second wave, the 20,000 cases that occurred across Victoria settled into the hardest cohorts and populations across the state."
NSW now has an outbreak in an area which has all the issues of "casualised work, of cash-in-hand, of issues of visa status, issues of language and cultural barriers" and dare I say it - a less than compliant population.

The comparison in how it plays out compared to Melbourne will be interesting,
 
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DavidSSS

Tiger Legend
Dec 11, 2017
10,525
17,881
Melbourne
What gets me about that truck driver who went to Shepparton is that he was within the rules, didn't know he or a member of his family was infected. Then when contact tracing came to him he didn't take it seriously - forgot to mention that he went to Shepparton as well as Kilmore. Not really rule breaking or avoiding the question, just idiocy and a complete lack of regard for how serious this is. How could someone be so ignorant of the need for accurate contact tracing after 6 months of the pandemic?

Well, the cases below 10 for 2 days in a row is goo, here's what it looks like:

COVID19 7 day ave 15102020.jpg

By the numbers:

DateNew Infections7 Day Trailing ave5 Day Centred ave14 Day Trailing ave
8 October 2020109.2910.009.71
9 October 20201410.0011.809.86
10 October 20201210.2912.209.57
11 October 20201411.1411.6010.21
12 October 20201110.7110.0010.36
13 October 2020711.0010.14
14 October 2020610.579.57

Looking a little better but we'll have to see if we can keep it below 10 for a few days at least.

6 cases today in NSW so it does keep rumbling along there.

DS
 
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larabee

Tiger Champion
Jun 11, 2010
3,694
5,434
Tigerland
he was allowed to travel to regional areas as part of his work, but he was breaking the rules as he wasn't allowed to go to cafes, restaurants, shops etc while in the regional areas while on his working permit.
 
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TT33

Yellow & Black Member
Feb 17, 2004
6,816
5,805
Melbourne
he was allowed to travel to regional areas as part of his work, but he was breaking the rules as he wasn't allowed to go to cafes, restaurants, shops etc while in the regional areas while on his working permit.


Is that due to ignorance, arrogance or stupidity. I wonder!!!
 

Althom

Tiger Superstar
Jul 23, 2016
1,175
1,027
What gets me about that truck driver who went to Shepparton is that he was within the rules, didn't know he or a member of his family was infected. Then when contact tracing came to him he didn't take it seriously - forgot to mention that he went to Shepparton as well as Kilmore. Not really rule breaking or avoiding the question, just idiocy and a complete lack of regard for how serious this is. How could someone be so ignorant of the need for accurate contact tracing after 6 months of the pandemic?

Well, the cases below 10 for 2 days in a row is goo, here's what it looks like:

View attachment 10773

By the numbers:

DateNew Infections7 Day Trailing ave5 Day Centred ave14 Day Trailing ave
8 October 2020109.2910.009.71
9 October 20201410.0011.809.86
10 October 20201210.2912.209.57
11 October 20201411.1411.6010.21
12 October 20201110.7110.0010.36
13 October 2020711.0010.14
14 October 2020610.579.57

Looking a little better but we'll have to see if we can keep it below 10 for a few days at least.

6 cases today in NSW so it does keep rumbling along there.

DS
Forgot to mention?
 

MD Jazz

Don't understand football? Talk to the hand.
Feb 3, 2017
13,329
13,714
6 cases today in NSW so it does keep rumbling along there.

DS

Not sure what your point is. They have been "rumbling" along at around 10 cases a day for over 6 months now. Since 1st July they have had 942 cases in 107 days. Yet they have had no Stage 4 and reduced restrictions over that period. They had their spike post ruby princess, over 200 cases on some days. But within a few weeks they were down to single digits. And have remained there for well over 6 months. Management or luck?
 

Althom

Tiger Superstar
Jul 23, 2016
1,175
1,027
Is that due to ignorance, arrogance or stupidity. I wonder!!!
Given he wasn't up front with the people from Contact Tracing I'm guessing a combination of all 3 plus maybe something he wanted to hide.
 

Ian4

BIN MAN!
May 6, 2004
22,181
4,681
Melbourne
Not sure what your point is. They have been "rumbling" along at around 10 cases a day for over 6 months now. Since 1st July they have had 942 cases in 107 days. Yet they have had no Stage 4 and reduced restrictions over that period. They had their spike post ruby princess, over 200 cases on some days. But within a few weeks they were down to single digits. And have remained there for well over 6 months. Management or luck?

probably a bit of both. when we peaked at 7,800 active cases in mid-august, NSW had 297 and were on the brink of a second wave, but were able to pull it back. they also had their own problems with quarantine with people disappearing (one went to newcastle from memory), but it didn't affect them as much as it did here.
 

DavidSSS

Tiger Legend
Dec 11, 2017
10,525
17,881
Melbourne
Not sure what your point is. They have been "rumbling" along at around 10 cases a day for over 6 months now. Since 1st July they have had 942 cases in 107 days. Yet they have had no Stage 4 and reduced restrictions over that period. They had their spike post ruby princess, over 200 cases on some days. But within a few weeks they were down to single digits. And have remained there for well over 6 months. Management or luck?

It's a point of comparison, because, you know, they are a state right next to us with a similar population in the same country.

What's your agenda?

DS
 
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Sintiger

Tiger Legend
Aug 11, 2010
18,205
17,605
Camberwell
Not sure what your point is. They have been "rumbling" along at around 10 cases a day for over 6 months now. Since 1st July they have had 942 cases in 107 days. Yet they have had no Stage 4 and reduced restrictions over that period. They had their spike post ruby princess, over 200 cases on some days. But within a few weeks they were down to single digits. And have remained there for well over 6 months. Management or luck?
yes.

I can't remember the exact numbers but Victoria has something like 180 active cases atm and NSW has about 40 . That's the big difference still
 

bigwow

Tiger Legend
Jul 24, 2003
8,453
6,049
Melbourne
yes.

I can't remember the exact numbers but Victoria has something like 180 active cases atm and NSW has about 40 . That's the big difference still
175 v. 40, NSW had 11 new today, Vic had 6, all metro apparently, 2 reassigned from previous days. Positive test rate 0.03%.
Still think Vic needs to open up, but cautiously, still with masks, etc.
 
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MD Jazz

Don't understand football? Talk to the hand.
Feb 3, 2017
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probably a bit of both. when we peaked at 7,800 active cases in mid-august, NSW had 297 and were on the brink of a second wave, but were able to pull it back. they also had their own problems with quarantine with people disappearing (one went to newcastle from memory), but it didn't affect them as much as it did here.

Funny how their problems didn't result in 10 weeks of stage 4.
 
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MD Jazz

Don't understand football? Talk to the hand.
Feb 3, 2017
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It's a point of comparison, because, you know, they are a state right nest to us with a similar population in the same country.

What's your agenda?

DS
No agenda, just thought you were trying to somehow say they are struggling like us. They've managed that case load for 6 months. They managed a rapid decline in weeks without severe restrictions. They've managed ongoing low numbers.

What faith should I have in the Vic gov't that they can keep the cases under control?
 

MD Jazz

Don't understand football? Talk to the hand.
Feb 3, 2017
13,329
13,714
We know the Vic contact tracing was initially completely inadequate as well as the whole public health setup.
So what confidence should we have now that they can manage this?