Coronavirus | PUNT ROAD END | Richmond Tigers Forum
  • IMPORTANT // Please look after your loved ones, yourself and be kind to others. If you are feeling that the world is too hard to handle there is always help - I implore you not to hesitate in contacting one of these wonderful organisations Lifeline and Beyond Blue ... and I'm sure reaching out to our PRE community we will find a way to help. T.

Coronavirus

Ian4

BIN MAN!
May 6, 2004
22,180
4,679
Melbourne
We know the Vic contact tracing was initially completely inadequate

I question this. when you're having 200+ cases per day for the best part of 6 weeks, its extremely tricky to get 100% accuracy on contact tracing. i think we were still running in the mid-90s in terms of percentage during the peak… which (from the outside) sounds like a very high number.
 

Sintiger

Tiger Legend
Aug 11, 2010
18,199
17,593
Camberwell
I question this. when you're having 200+ cases per day for the best part of 6 weeks, its extremely tricky to get 100% accuracy on contact tracing. i think we were still running in the mid-90s in terms of percentage during the peak… which (from the outside) sounds like a very high number.
I wonder what it is in many countries in Europe and in the USA?
 

IanG

Tiger Legend
Sep 27, 2004
18,087
3,323
Melbourne
I question this. when you're having 200+ cases per day for the best part of 6 weeks, its extremely tricky to get 100% accuracy on contact tracing. i think we were still running in the mid-90s in terms of percentage during the peak… which (from the outside) sounds like a very high number.

While thats certainly true once the virus is at that higher level it only got to that level because the initial contact tracing from the hotel quarantines was poor. This has been well established even from the authorities. Thankfully it is now clearly at a level that it should be able to deal with the number of cases we are getting per day.
 

Sintiger

Tiger Legend
Aug 11, 2010
18,199
17,593
Camberwell
While thats certainly true once the virus is at that higher level it only got to that level because the initial contact tracing from the hotel quarantines was poor. This has been well established even from the authorities. Thankfully it is now clearly at a level that it should be able to deal with the number of cases we are getting per day.
Poor is one way of describing it and that is part of the truth but it was also because some groups who became heavily infected refused to cooperate with contact tracing information gathering.
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: 1 user

vinpaul

Tiger Matchwinner
Apr 26, 2009
748
41
in the July/August period the contact tracing ‘system’ was severely overwhelmed and running way behind the
 

MB78

I can have my cake and eat it too
Sep 8, 2009
8,005
2,154
Poor is one way of describing it and that is part of the truth but it was also because some groups who became heavily infected refused to cooperate with contact tracing information gathering.

I agree with this. Places that were heavily effected in Regional Victoria like Colac for example had better control at reducing then eliminating due to better cooperation.
 

22nd Man

Tiger Legend
Aug 29, 2011
9,185
3,597
Essex Heights
yes.

I can't remember the exact numbers but Victoria has something like 180 active cases atm and NSW has about 40 . That's the big difference still
Didn't NSW relax their restrictions with current cases in the the 200s or 300s?
And if that isn't relevant, what number of current cases would Vic have to get to support easing?
 

Leysy Days

Tiger Legend
Feb 26, 2004
21,331
7,933
How many of the NSW were returning travellers in quarantine?

Of the 11 yesterday 5 were those, Would need to compare community transmission to Vic not overall numbers.
 

MB78

I can have my cake and eat it too
Sep 8, 2009
8,005
2,154
2 new cases and 0 deaths. Our best number for months.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 2 users

Ridley

Tiger Legend
Jul 21, 2003
17,755
15,433
2 new cases and 0 deaths. Our best number for months.
Great news. The Premier needs to release the brakes now, to a reasonable extent, and get this state moving again. We are falling behind the rest of the country.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 1 user

Ian4

BIN MAN!
May 6, 2004
22,180
4,679
Melbourne
how many cases from the chadstone cluster? about 40? if thats the case, our 14 day average would be below 6 today it didn't occur.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 1 user

MB78

I can have my cake and eat it too
Sep 8, 2009
8,005
2,154
how many cases from the chadstone cluster? about 40? if thats the case, our 14 day average would be below 6 today it didn't occur.
Also being reported that if we had the same health measures as Queensland and NSW health 3rd ring quarantine the truck driver would have been in quarantine rather than out in regional Victoria infecting people.
 

MB78

I can have my cake and eat it too
Sep 8, 2009
8,005
2,154

Take the political point scoring out of this article firstly. I agree with the opening up messages in this article. I hope we are moving towards some of these outcomes Sunday.
 

IanG

Tiger Legend
Sep 27, 2004
18,087
3,323
Melbourne
Also being reported that if we had the same health measures as Queensland and NSW health 3rd ring quarantine the truck driver would have been in quarantine rather than out in regional Victoria infecting people.

Reading the sequence of events I doubt that. Contact tracing occurred within the required timeframe he just moved quickly so he was uncontactable and didn't obey the rules and then lied.
 

MB78

I can have my cake and eat it too
Sep 8, 2009
8,005
2,154
Reading the sequence of events I doubt that. Contact tracing occurred within the required timeframe he just moved quickly so he was uncontactable and didn't obey the rules and then lied.
No doubt he did the wrong thing. But can we take chances like this? I doubt he willl be the first. Queensland health would have had him in quarantine the day before he made the trip.
 

DavidSSS

Tiger Legend
Dec 11, 2017
10,523
17,874
Melbourne
Good number today but there are still risks with opening up. I went for a ride the other day and saw groups of parents talking after picking up their kids from school. I know this is low risk but this is how it spreads, and this is why we have had things like closed schools and the 5KM limit on movement. If we are to open up people need to realise that the freedom of opening up comes with responsibility to distance, to wear masks, etc.

Let's hope the numbers stay very low, I think the number for today (the one which will be published tomorrow) will be very important in terms of any relaxing of restrictions.

Here's what it looks like now:

COVID19 7 day ave 16102020.jpg

By the numbers:

DateNew Infections7 Day Trailing ave5 Day Centred ave14 Day Trailing ave
9 October 20201410.0011.809.86
10 October 20201210.2912.209.57
11 October 20201411.1411.4010.21
12 October 20201110.719.8010.36
13 October 2020610.867.8010.07
14 October 2020610.439.50
15 October 202029.299.29

Good to see the 14 day trailing average heading in the right direction again. Maybe we can get past this plateau.

5 cases in NSW but only 1 locally acquired. 2 cases in Queensland. All in all very low numbers across the country.

Now, if we are going to have people coming in from overseas, can we quarantine them in some sort of quarantine centre instead of the silly idea of doing this in hotels?

DS
 

DavidSSS

Tiger Legend
Dec 11, 2017
10,523
17,874
Melbourne
Actually, just to add to the above and show some context, here's how it looks back to the start of July:

COVID19 7 day ave 16102020 all.jpg

We've come a long way from the dark days of August.

Now, all we need is a Tigers win tonight and the world will start to repair.

DS