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IMPORTANT // Please look after your loved ones, yourself and be kind to others. If you are feeling that the world is too hard to handle there is always help - I implore you not to hesitate in contacting one of these wonderful organisations Lifeline and Beyond Blue ... and I'm sure reaching out to our PRE community we will find a way to help. T.
Welcome Tom Brown
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Rcd was a bit of an exception in that he was inside.
But i reckon If we left all outside 18 yo's to Dodoro, as a non-negotiable rule
We'd be way ahead
I reckon a high proportion of the uber howlers are outside juniors.
A side needs outside players,
But they need to have an inside game thats evident at 18
The lad showed his inexperience yesterday but still has plenty of upside for us in the future
You’ve been a consistent supporter of Brown which is commendable but this is not the first time you’ve suggested he’ll take Vlastuin’s role.
For the uneducated on here, can you please explain what that role actually is, because I cannot for the life of me see any Vlastuin like traits in the kid?
You have previously suggested that Brown will play the role differently so just need to understand what you think that role is. It can’t be interceptor because to date, we haven’t seen him take many aerial marks and doesn’t seem to possess the physical toughness required to park himself in front of a pack to take the punishment that has contributed to more than one of Vlastuins concussions.
If he’s a distributor, then perhaps he would be closer to Short’s heir apparent
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He can and has taken intercept marks before. That'll be his gig. He won't have Vlaustin's insane jump out of the trenches and storm your opponent attitude. But he can read the ball and pick it off. They'll likely also use him to start us out of half back, either a kick over the defence or to switch play.
Not just my opinion btw - but someone who I know who has a very strong connection inside the club.
It's not skill set that worries me, it's getting involved enough to show it.
we have debated the definition of busts over the years
and like all things there's a bust spectrum depending where we took the player (expectation) and the contribution they made (reality), with the added complexity of who was taken after them (opportunity cost)
they're first rounders and they were invariably whipping boys, so im using them as 'bust' examples.
some are debatable, and will be debated
IMO, a 100 game bust is a bit of an oxymoron, but then the opportunity cost applies (Pavlich, Buddy, Roughy)
anyway, for the purposes of making my point, going back 20 years;
Fiora
Pettifer
Tambling
Jon
ben lennon*
Corey ellis
Danny Meyer
ty vickery*
RCD
Reece Conca
80% identifiably outside juniors?
reece conca and RCD are exceptions (inside bust)
$hai bolton* perhaps the huge exception (outside boom) that proves the rule ($hai was 2nd round, and he's only outside because there's no human alive on a footy field who can lay a finger on him)
Tom Browns potential bust formulae looks like
Expectation (first round, replaces nick vlastuin) + Opportunity cost (Van Rooyen) / Reality (games = 1)
B= (E +OC) / (R)
at pick 17 (not his fault), in his 3rd year and 1 senior game coming into year 3
unfortunately his kid is highly likely to bust.
another, simpler rule applies: if they're any good, the match committee picks 'em to play.
anyway, I think the data illuminates a solar-eclipse-blindingly fail safe rule:
DONT PICK OUTSIDE PLAYERS IN THE FIRST ROUND.
leave 'em for Dodoro
not all outside players bust; but of the <190 busts, a very, very, significant proportion were identifiably outside 18yos.
* I wanted to draft these players
and like all things there's a bust spectrum depending where we took the player (expectation) and the contribution they made (reality), with the added complexity of who was taken after them (opportunity cost)
they're first rounders and they were invariably whipping boys, so im using them as 'bust' examples.
some are debatable, and will be debated
IMO, a 100 game bust is a bit of an oxymoron, but then the opportunity cost applies (Pavlich, Buddy, Roughy)
anyway, for the purposes of making my point, going back 20 years;
Fiora
Pettifer
Tambling
Jon
ben lennon*
Corey ellis
Danny Meyer
ty vickery*
RCD
Reece Conca
80% identifiably outside juniors?
reece conca and RCD are exceptions (inside bust)
$hai bolton* perhaps the huge exception (outside boom) that proves the rule ($hai was 2nd round, and he's only outside because there's no human alive on a footy field who can lay a finger on him)
Tom Browns potential bust formulae looks like
Expectation (first round, replaces nick vlastuin) + Opportunity cost (Van Rooyen) / Reality (games = 1)
B= (E +OC) / (R)
at pick 17 (not his fault), in his 3rd year and 1 senior game coming into year 3
unfortunately his kid is highly likely to bust.
another, simpler rule applies: if they're any good, the match committee picks 'em to play.
anyway, I think the data illuminates a solar-eclipse-blindingly fail safe rule:
DONT PICK OUTSIDE PLAYERS IN THE FIRST ROUND.
leave 'em for Dodoro
not all outside players bust; but of the <190 busts, a very, very, significant proportion were identifiably outside 18yos.
* I wanted to draft these players
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I didn't see any of the game until last night. I watched the first three quarters last night and I'm a bit surprised (but also not) at how hard some are coming down on Brown. Was it the goal square lost contest to Lachie Schuwearfilter? Didn't look great, but Schuwearfilter is a strong and smart little midget, and had already cheated a free for being touched above the navel. Not great, sure.
I also saw a clean gather and incisive kick from half-back to CHF, where Maynard edged out Ryan. I saw him run on from defence and miss the goal he should have kicked. I saw him win a loose ball deep in defence but fail to clear it, leading to the Filth's first goal. He then spoiled the 203cm Darcy Cameron one-on-one and out of position after the resultant centre clearance. Got caught betwixt and between as Collingwood transitioned for their second goal - neither close enough to effect the ball carrier nor back quickly enough to assist Grimes with Mihocek. (Positioning and or/fitness.) Ran hard to collect and brush past an off-balance DeGoey before delivering inside 50. Lost a ground contest in the goal square to Schuwearfilter. Went back with the flight to spoil Schuwearfilter near the behind post.
I might have missed something? Or yet to see it?
Anyway, he probably goes out for Floss. I still back him.
Whether he was the right pick as above is another question that won't be answered this year unless Van Riewoldt goes quantum.
I also saw a clean gather and incisive kick from half-back to CHF, where Maynard edged out Ryan. I saw him run on from defence and miss the goal he should have kicked. I saw him win a loose ball deep in defence but fail to clear it, leading to the Filth's first goal. He then spoiled the 203cm Darcy Cameron one-on-one and out of position after the resultant centre clearance. Got caught betwixt and between as Collingwood transitioned for their second goal - neither close enough to effect the ball carrier nor back quickly enough to assist Grimes with Mihocek. (Positioning and or/fitness.) Ran hard to collect and brush past an off-balance DeGoey before delivering inside 50. Lost a ground contest in the goal square to Schuwearfilter. Went back with the flight to spoil Schuwearfilter near the behind post.
I might have missed something? Or yet to see it?
Anyway, he probably goes out for Floss. I still back him.
Whether he was the right pick as above is another question that won't be answered this year unless Van Riewoldt goes quantum.
I definitely want to see him play 2 months in an accustomed role in the seniors before I stamp his forum papers.
and I hope I come out looking like I had a grand mal seizure whilst whisking scrambled eggs outside a Taylor swift concert
But even if he plays 200 games,
I'd stick to my recruitment rule outlined above
First Round = A demonstrably Inside Game (non-negotiable)
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150 games and playing very little 2nds football does not make him a bust.
Yeah, sure, agree. But Brown's ability to win contests was probably one of the reasons we drafted him. He just does it nonchalantly.
I thought he was ok, but I did wonder if he was still on the ground for long periods in the 2nd and 3rd quarters- like a lot of our side.
I dont he starts the year in our best back 7, but he is probably no8 . (and that is not necessarily a negative reflection on him- he is behind Broad, Vlastuin, DRioli and Short for position- that is a lot of AAs ahead of him.)
he's definitely not a bust in my books. I was always a fan.
I used a less analytical definition for the purpose of the point.
The term 'first rounder whipping boy' maybe more apt?
Tambling, flora, pettifer or vickery weren't objective busts either.
as I pointed out. >100 games bust is an oxymoron.
anyway, my point stands
first rounders must have an inside game
point taken;
I will watch him through my nonchalance corrective lenses (Ive worn out 3 sets, along with the 2 Utes)
The Joel Bowden effect.
you've got me excited now
excuse me while I go iron on NO. 30
Yeh, Vlastuin is elite everywhere. Bravery/composure/disposal. Brown ain't playing that role. Perhaps the Short role is the aim.
nonchalance is one of my favourite characteristics in a footballer.
its almost as rare as the @Dyer'ere Gibkardashian Hover.
who had it?
Joel Bowden, Scott Pendlebury. I can't think of many others?
Mabior Chol's acute and unrelenting laziness was easily mistaken for it.
its very exalted company.
thanks fellas, I was really struggling under the weight of negativity.
perspective corrected!
Our Tom is a nonchalant footballer and I am all in.
end the farce
