2007 Draw was worse than first thought

[Scoop]

You bunch of whingers would find any excuse about our side why we are performing sh!thouse, expect for the bleeding obvious.

here here.lets play the top teams as much as possible. playing mostly weaker teams and making finals leads ultimately to false dawns because the cracks only get papered over. im sure all and sundry are sick and tired of false dawns by now.

Not all Claw, some on here would give Krak another 5 years if they had their way.

You only get better by testing your skills in the heat of battle againist the best.

 

[jb03]

Good stats, Hawthorns record against the better teams stacks up pretty well.

 

[blx]

our only draw preference should read...

WE WANT THE HARDEST DRAW POSSIBLE! BRING IT ON YOU SCUM!

harden *deleted* up Richmond >

 

[Mr Pumblechook]

Here is a summary that makes it pretty plain to the end of round 20. We had the worst of it by a fair margin and Collingwood had the best of it by a long way.

Pos	Team	vs top 8	vs bot 8
1	Geelong	8	12
2	Port Adel	8	12
3	West Coast	9	11
4	Hawthorn	10	10
5	Kangaroos	10	10
6	Collingwood	7	13
7	Sydney	9	11
8	St Kilda	9	11
9	Adelaide	10	10
10	Essendon	10	10
11	Bris Lions	12	8
12	W Bulldogs	11	9
13	Fremantle	11	9
14	Melbourne	12	8
15	Carlton	11	9
16	Richmond	13	7

That really is quite a remarkable table. I would think that statistically, it is beyond chance for such a pattern to emerge. The only real anomoly is Collingwood who should be higher on the ladder.

This is something the AFL should really have a look at. This has nothing to do with us (RFC), but the equality of the draw. Based on this, how the AFL can justify a non-random draw is beyond me.

Hope some journo somewhere picks this up and runs with it.

 

[Harry]

Here is a summary that makes it pretty plain to the end of round 20. We had the worst of it by a fair margin and Collingwood had the best of it by a long way.

Pos	Team	vs top 8	vs bot 8
1	Geelong	8	12
2	Port Adel	8	12
3	West Coast	9	11
4	Hawthorn	10	10
5	Kangaroos	10	10
6	Collingwood	7	13
7	Sydney	9	11
8	St Kilda	9	11
9	Adelaide	10	10
10	Essendon	10	10
11	Bris Lions	12	8
12	W Bulldogs	11	9
13	Fremantle	11	9
14	Melbourne	12	8
15	Carlton	11	9
16	Richmond	13	7

We still lost 5 out of the 7 played against the bottom 8.

 

[Tigerfan]

here here.lets play the top teams as much as possible. playing mostly weaker teams and making finals leads ultimately to false dawns because the cracks only get papered over. im sure all and sundry are sick and tired of false dawns by now.

I completely agree with this!

 

[TigersYellowAndBlack]

Lo and behold, Collingwood come up trumps again. 7 games against top 8, 13 against bottom 8, 4 against top 4, 7 against bottom 4.

These stats are a little misleading.
Given the evenness of the top 12 teams this year, the best way to do it is
Take the number of games played and subtract the games played against the bottom 4 teams.
That gives a slightly different picture. I am sure there are better ways than that to do it as well.

Keep in mind that if your a top team, you are there because you beat lower teams .. this means the teams you beat will be more likely to be in the bottom 8. Does that make sense!?

 

[MackTiger]

No melbourne team should play back to back games interstate !

 

[GoodOne]

Lo and behold, Collingwood come up trumps again. 7 games against top 8, 13 against bottom 8, 4 against top 4, 7 against bottom 4.

These stats are a little misleading.
Given the evenness of the top 12 teams this year, the best way to do it is
Take the number of games played and subtract the games played against the bottom 4 teams.
That gives a slightly different picture. I am sure there are better ways than that to do it as well.

Keep in mind that if your a top team, you are there because you beat lower teams .. this means the teams you beat will be more likely to be in the bottom 8. Does that make sense!?

It makes sense, except even comparing Collingwood against the other top 8 teams, they come out well on top. Add to that 15 games at the MCG and there is a clear advantage to Collingwood as there appears to be every year. If it is by chance, then I guess Collingwood have the stars aligned every year.

 

[LeeToRainesToRoach]

Since 1997 when the current 16 clubs have been competing:

Co v Ca 22 matches
Co v Es 22
Ca v Es 22
...
Ri v Es 19
Ri v Co 18
Ri v Ca 16
...
Ca v WC 12
Co v Ge 12

 

[Tigers of Old]

Pos	Team	vs top 8	vs bot 8
6	Collingwood	7	13

Add to that 15 games at the MCG and there is a clear advantage to Collingwood as there appears to be every year.

Simply disgraceful.

I am so glad we beat these charity cases.

 

[the claw]

Since 1997 when the current 16 clubs have been competing:

Co v Ca 22 matches
Co v Es 22
Ca v Es 22
...
Ri v Es 19
Ri v Co 18
Ri v Ca 16
...
Ca v WC 12
Co v Ge 12

this is exactly why we should have a draw done over 2yrs. one yr 22 games the next 23 over the 2 yrs everybody plays each other 3 times. over 10 yrs everyone plays each other 15 times over a the time frame melb teams travel the same. we should not be looking at this as a yearly thing but a way to ensure all teams play each other the same amount for the entire time each team is in the competition.

 

[GoodOne]

this is exactly why we should have a draw done over 2yrs. one yr 22 games the next 23 over the 2 yrs everybody plays each other 3 times. over 10 yrs everyone plays each other 15 times over a the time frame melb teams travel the same. we should not be looking at this as a yearly thing but a way to ensure all teams play each other the same amount for the entire time each team is in the competition.

Good idea but we know that won't happen. That would represent an immediate hit to the hip pocket of the AFL.

 

[Dyer'ere]

It's not a minor development, Bill, that Richmond (spooners or thereabouts) don't get to play Richmond. And that Geelong (minor Premiers) don't have to play Geelong. In our numbers and theirs it matters. That's not to say that we haven't had a tough draw just that it's exaggerated by these facts.

My thinking is that in many ways you're advantaged by a disadvantageous draw. Richmond might have got a softer draw this year and won an extra three matches. But that wouldn't make us a better team. We've been tested and have failed. But we've been truly tested. We know where we're at.

The pay-off is that we get the draft selections for finishing say third last (maybe better than that). If we'd had a flattering draw.

If you overcome a tough draw to make the finals, you've got that underdog status and tested strength in your favour. I believe that these are more important than home ground advantage- even interstate. It may seem like polemic but I fully believe that in finals home ground advantage is negligible.

So, my wild theory is that usually tough draws make for tougher teams or teams that do better in draft selections. Win/win.

 

[jb03]

So the best team should always win regardless but a team with a soft draw will finish in a position that belies their true ability - a la the Pies this year.

 

[Dyer'ere]

So the best team should always win regardless but a team with a soft draw will finish in a position that belies their true ability - a la the Pies this year.

That's my take, jb. How has their finish helped them? They got beat by Fitzroy two weeks back. Smiled.

 

[Bill James]

It's not a minor development, Bill, that Richmond (spooners or thereabouts) don't get to play Richmond. And that Geelong (minor Premiers) don't have to play Geelong. In our numbers and theirs it matters. That's not to say that we haven't had a tough draw just that it's exaggerated by these facts.

Sure there is a little inherent bias created by the teams own ladder position but it still shows that the draw has a major impact on final ladder position.

At the end of round 20 the tiges had played 7 games against the top four (the most) and only 3 games against the bottom four (the least).

I made that point that their is bias but it is much smaller than the impact of the draw. Given that there is 7 teams in your own half of the ladder and 8 in the an even draw over 22 games would mean you play 1.5 games more against the other side of the ladder than your own.