2022 Draft Thread

[tigersnake]

In Doerre’s “long awaited” (his words) Top 100 Power Rankings (ie not his Phantom Draft referred to earlier), and not withstanding he has 15 mature ages from rankings 41 to 55, he has Matthew Jefferson rated 64th.

Michalenney 78th. Gruzewski 76th. Drury 74th. Lemmey 86th. And other strange rankings….

Have always thought he’s a bit weird and not that reliable and his latest video confirms that for me.

I read Rowsten at 19 and stopped. Not a bad player I suppose, but 19 in the land?

Yeah its been interesting being able to analyse and compare the 'pros' this year. Its confirmed what I've suspected and what a lot of PRE posters have said over the years. Its a huge task to systematically analyse the draft prospects, massive. if a comprehensive analysis of the draft is 100%, normally I would have done 5%, this year I've put a fair bit of time in and done maybe a 20-25% effort? I reckon the small cohort of pros who do it are there simply because they are willing to do it, have a working knowledge of footy and can string a sentence together, not necessarily because of talent, and they'd do a 50-60% job, being generous?

CD is all over the shop, but obviously he puts the time in, but more on the computer than at games I'd say. CT just talks to all the recruiters and managers, doesn't make too many calls himself, Rookie me central is totally random, a few kernels of good analysis but no consistency of amount or quality, I'd say they wouldn't have many resources. I think PRE is a good a source as any. Just one poster, Bullus, leaves CD for dead IMO on being across the field. Then there is the discussion, which the pros don't have, which is great.

 

[tigersnake]

The previous post just looked at a few highly rated players, but I decided to actually check and look at all u18 players and how many played senior state-league footy.

I had a few criteria:
1) must have played in the U18 champs, and ergo had a good junior career.
2) no overage players, must be 18. Thats the point.
3) must play more than 3 games at senior SANFL, WAFL, or VFL levels, this was originally to test if they held their spot. I didn't drill down into stats because the young fellas usually have to contend with low TOG, it was enough to keep getting a game. I expected this criteria to sift out a lot of players, but it didn't, it sifted out 6 players, more on that later. This criteria also eliminated the AFL academy v Collingwood VFL game, which wasn't for points and in reality another junior rep side.

So players who met the above criteria:

Marlin Corbett, Allies in the champs, Gold Coast Suns VFL, 10 games, 3 finals
Elijah Hewitt, WA in the champs, Swan Districts WAFL, 9 games
Jed Hagan, WA, East Fremantle WAFL, 8 games, 3 finals
Steely Green, WA, South Fremantle WAFL, 7 games, 1 final
Jack Cleaver, WA, East Fremantle WAFL, 7 games, 3 finals

A mere 5 players

The mere 6 players who were sifted out by the 3 game min criteria, Will Ashcroft*, Lloyd Johnston**, Darcy Jones, Jed Busslinger, Shadeau Brain, Max Michalanney, Paul Pascu.

I missed a player on the above list, not bad, only took me an hour. Happy to be corrected if I've missed any others;

Reuben Ginbey, WA, East Perth WAFL, 4 games

apologies to young Reuben, so 6 players in total. Interesting Steely Green's stocks are rising.

 

[bullus_hit]

Never draft a flanker to become a mid. He is what he is a flanker. You compared him to Zach Williams, Carlton paid $800k thinking he could become a part time mid. Never happened. I think Cowan is a second rounder in a weak draft.

Not sure I agree with those sentiments, Bontempelli came in as a wingman, 14 touches a match, very outside, look how that's going now. Nat Fyfe was a flanker, Jack Crisp was a flanker, Elliot Yeo was a flanker. Wingmen generally go in the 10-20 range, Cowan could easily slot in on a wing, certainly much better suited to the role than a player like Brown. Williams also finished top 5 in the B&F playing on the ball, GWS made a grand final that year, the fact Carlton paid a silly amount for a part time mid is irrelevant. If guys like Josh Sinn & Wanganeen-Milera are top 20 talents then Cowan slots into that bracket with ease. What's not to like? He has pace, he has kicking smarts, he has pinpoint accuracy, he has the leadership.

 

[AstuteTiger]

JN has a point, but he doesn't make it that well. We went deep into the draft last year, if we take 2 this year thats 8 players in 2 years, its not rebuilding, but you can't call that inactive. Also he ignores the fact that the Suns and GWS are AFL owned and run sheltered workshops that nobody really cares about and as a result are mired in mediocrity and players don't want to stay.

The situation is more a symptom of AFL failure on GWS and Suns, not the a cause.

Spot on, we drafted 5 top 30 players last year plus mid-season draftee Jacob Bauer

 

[Scoop]

Not sure I agree with those sentiments, Bontempelli came in as a wingman, 14 touches a match, very outside, look how that's going now. Nat Fyfe was a flanker, Jack Crisp was a flanker, Elliot Yeo was a flanker. Wingmen generally go in the 10-20 range, Cowan could easily slot in on a wing, certainly much better suited to the role than a player like Brown. Williams also finished top 5 in the B&F playing on the ball, GWS made a grand final that year, the fact Carlton paid a silly amount for a part time mid is irrelevant. If guys like Josh Sinn & Wanganeen-Milera are top 20 talents then Cowan slots into that bracket with ease. What's not to like? He has pace, he has kicking smarts, he has pinpoint accuracy, he has the leadership.

Bont was a onballer getting 20 touches and 1.5 goals a game. He was never a wing in juniors. Year 1 AFL he was getting 50% of his touches contested. Cowan isn’t close to a Bont type nor does he have that scope. And Morrish medal winning form hasn’t translated to AFL succeed much the last ten year. Cowan isnt a midfielder.

 

[bullus_hit]

Bont was a onballer getting 20 touches and 1.5 goals a game. He was never a wing in juniors. Year 1 AFL he was getting 50% of his touches contested. Cowan isn’t close to a Bont type nor does he have that scope. And Morrish medal winning form hasn’t translated to AFL succeed much the last ten year. Cowan isnt a midfielder.

At state level Bont was playing wing and I'm not comparing Cowan to Bont, Goater is a player more aligned to that comparison. If you were prepared to spend a top 15 pick on Wanganeen-Milera I'm scratching my head as to why Cowan is kryptonite. As for the Morrish, pretty sure Oliver has justified that award, I recall you weren't keen on him either.

 

[Streak]

Interesting, Streaker. What's your read on him?

Not sure Spook. Very good at WAFL level, and could be good insurance if we lose either Lynch or Riewoldt.

There has to be question marks over how much Jack has left in the tank. History says one more season can be a performance chasm for older players. If he falls away, I think we are badly exposed for AFL ready height up forward.

Keitel reads the play as a forward very well. I he reminds me of Jeff Hogg a bit.

But given a number of clubs have run the rule over him, including both WA clubs, he is stock car at best.

 

[turk-d-tiger]

At state level Bont was playing wing and I'm not comparing Cowan to Bont, Goater is a player more aligned to that comparison. If you were prepared to spend a top 15 pick on Wanganeen-Milera I'm scratching my head as to why Cowan is kryptonite. As for the Morrish, pretty sure Oliver has justified that award, I recall you weren't keen on him either.

Change of subject here , You are a fan of Lemmy

If you had the choice to take 1 of the 2 players Lemmy v JVR which do you take right now

 

[bullus_hit]

Change of subject here , You are a fan of Lemmy

If you had the choice to take 1 of the 2 players Lemmy v JVR which do you take right now

I think you would have to take JVR, his VFL exploits gives him a more transparent form line but in saying that, Lemmey seems capable of becoming a handy 2nd ruck option, that makes his ceiling fractionally higher. My greatest criticism of JVR is he's not a noted jumper, seems to have heavy legs. I think this is also a valid point with his kicking range, Lemmey by far the more impressive kick when on song.

 

[turk-d-tiger]

I think you would have to take JVR, his VFL exploits gives him a more transparent form line but in saying that, Lemmey seems capable of becoming a handy 2nd ruck option, that makes his ceiling fractionally higher. My greatest criticism of JVR is he's not a noted jumper, seems to have heavy legs. I think this is also a valid point with his kicking range, Lemmey by far the more impressive kick when on song.

But prior to his 2022 VFL season "exploits" if both were available at the same selection you would take Lemmy ?
Now my other question as we have now officially been linked to Scully who you dont rate as highly as Lemmy
Lemmy is 10 months older than Scully and 5cm taller with what looks like more growing to do as he has just turned 18 earlier this month
which has the higher ceiling

 

[bullus_hit]

But prior to his 2022 VFL season "exploits" if both were available at the same selection you would take Lemmy ?
Now my other question as we have now officially been linked to Scully who you dont rate as highly as Lemmy
Lemmy is 10 months older than Scully and 5cm taller with what looks like more growing to do as he has just turned 18 earlier this month
which has the higher ceiling

Lemmey has the greater ceiling, better kicking technique, better leading patterns, definitely more suited to a centre half forward role. Scully to make the grade will need to become a viable ruck, this I'm struggling to see on exposed form, too easily pushed out of the contest. These tall lanky types are risky, Coleman-Jones a case in point, Vickery another, Griffiths, McBean............I think we've been down this path on numerous occasions. I suppose if Scully fills out & becomes a ruck/forward then there's hope, that would be my focus if we go down this path.

 

[Smoking Aces]

AFL phantom draft 2022: Every first round pick and bid predicted in Fox Footy mock draft

Why Dons could favour Bont clone over star mid; Cats’ shock call: AFL first-round mock draft

www.foxsports.com.au

 

[bullus_hit]

As for JVR vs Lemmey, I think the swingman capability gives him the edge but I reckon without the 2022 campaign in the picture Lemmey would have been selected.

 

[tigerdell]

Top discussion folks. Loving it!

 

[Redford]

AFL phantom draft 2022: Every first round pick and bid predicted in Fox Footy mock draft

Why Dons could favour Bont clone over star mid; Cats’ shock call: AFL first-round mock draft

www.foxsports.com.au

Could be an interesting haul that Cwood end up with.

 

[Scoop]

At state level Bont was playing wing and I'm not comparing Cowan to Bont,

Yeah you did. As a winger who could become an onballer. Bont played as onballer at TAC Cup and played significant on-ball minutes at the champs. You bought Bont into the Cowan discussion.
I'm not anti Cowan, he reminds me a bit of Sam Docherty. But in way has he resembled a midfielder at any stage.

As for the Morrish, pretty sure Oliver has justified that award, I recall you weren't keen on him either.

So now you raise Oliver as a link in someway to Cowan? That's the Bont and Oliver you have linked in Cowan discussions. Talk about talking the highpoint in a situation. Look at the list of Medal winner since 2010, only 4 from 16 have had decent careers. Most weren't even rookied. It's no pathway guide.

Can't remember on Oliver, don't think I was that anti but you have a good memory of pointing out blokes I got wrong.

 

[Scoop]

Could be an interesting haul that Cwood end up with.

I like Jakob Ryan a lot, I don't see the Sicily talk but he could be a Will Day/Ryan Burton type.

 

[Tigers of Old]

Cal Twoomey's final Phantom draft has dropped.

Cal Twomey's 2022 Phantom Draft: Top 30, late picks, club whispers

Who will your club take in this year's NAB AFL Draft? Our guru makes the call

www.afl.com.au

 

[Redford]

Cal Twoomey's final Phantom draft has dropped.

Cal Twomey's 2022 Phantom Draft: Top 30, late picks, club whispers

Who will your club take in this year's NAB AFL Draft? Our guru makes the call

www.afl.com.au

Heh heh heh. “Dropped”.

You’ve been hanging out with too many Gen Z’ers on Twitter old man.

 

[Tigers of Old]

Heh heh heh. “Dropped”.

You’ve been hanging out with too many Gen Z’ers on Twitter old man.

Mate I have an 18 year old son. I've got plenty more where that came from believe me.