2022 Draft Thread

[TigerFurious]

Did @Little Ziggyadee request the below HS article be written

Draft revisited: Your club’s strike rate with first-rounders​

Has your club nailed its prized picks? We have crunched the numbers on every first-round selection over the past decade to work out how every side has fared.

Some pretty mediocre work here by the Hun.

Big difference in quality (and therefore likelihood of success) between a player taken top 5 and one taken around 15-20 but they are both classified as first rounders simply due to the vagaries of the draft structure.

In fact, a late first rounder and an early third rounder have more in common and are historically, closer in chance of success than a late first and early first rounder.

 

[TigerMasochist]

Luckily for us we've managed to somehow snaffle a premiership or three off the back of all our pathetic first round drafting over the last decade. Just imagine how well we be travelling n how many flags we would have won if we'd had all those early Carlscum picks to build a team out of.
Might even be on our fourth or fifth coach by now, surely we'd be able to find a good un with that many opportunities.

 

[Dont Argue]

Draft analysis: Who are this decade’s first-round misses?

They’re a prized commodity – first-round draft picks – but what happens when your club’s pick fizzles rather than fires?

https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/...3/news-story/745d86f2a6314571131dcebd461e00da

 

[Jonesracing82]

Luckily for us we've managed to somehow snaffle a premiership or three off the back of all our pathetic first round drafting over the last decade. Just imagine how well we be travelling n how many flags we would have won if we'd had all those early Carlscum picks to build a team out of.
Might even be on our fourth or fifth coach by now, surely we'd be able to find a good un with that many opportunities.

We've done it by nailing our later picks & decent trading/list management, early picks are good but u have to get them right as we well know from the past what can happen if those picks are bad decisions

 

[DuD_Delist]

We've done it by nailing our later picks & decent trading/list management, early picks are good but u have to get them right as we well know from the past what can happen if those picks are bad decisions

I like our strategy.
Let other clubs do the ground work.
When ripe.We pick.

 

[bullus_hit]

This is a totally flawed analysis, Richmond had to contend with compromised drafts over this period, it also omits the fact that Francis Jackson nailed the best player in 2006, 2007 & 2009. It also doesn't acknowledge that the recent picks are only just embarking on their AFL career, using a games average is therefore bollocks. In 2008 we picked Vickery, that pick went on Bolton who is arguably the best player from 2016. The Deledio trade was also list management excellence.

 

[Jonesracing82]

This is a totally flawed analysis, Richmond had to contend with compromised drafts over this period, it also omits the fact that Francis Jackson nailed the best player in 2006, 2007 & 2009. It also doesn't acknowledge that the recent picks are only just embarking on their AFL career, using a games average is therefore bollocks. In 2008 we picked Vickery, that pick went on Bolton who is arguably the best player from 2016. The Deledio trade was also list management excellence.

This is true. Tho with Jackson he nailed the '00's picks but in the teens he also picked guys like C.Ellis. Of course the jury is still out on our recent picks but some of them have already shown they'll be players but time will tell on how good they'll be etc. There was a time on here when ppl were calling for Jackson to go only a yr or 2 before our dynasty began, fast fwd to now he looks to be 1 of the best in the business during his time in charge.

 

[bullus_hit]

This is true. Tho with Jackson he nailed the '00's picks but in the teens he also picked guys like C.Ellis. Of course the jury is still out on our recent picks but some of them have already shown they'll be players but time will tell on how good they'll be etc. There was a time on here when ppl were calling for Jackson to go only a yr or 2 before our dynasty began, fast fwd to now he looks to be 1 of the best in the business during his time in charge.

Jackson became a better recruiter as the years rolled on, his late picks were instrumental in providing Clarke with significant draft capital. He butchered the Corey Ellis pick but hit homers with Butler, Broad, Castagna, Grimes, Chol & Lambert. People forget just how poor our recruiting had been beyond the third round, a few tweaks here & there and the foundations were in place for a premiership tilt.

 

[Scoop]

This is a totally flawed analysis, Richmond had to contend with compromised drafts over this period,

The GWS and GC drafts skewed everything, those drafts need to be taken out. To judge someone on a draft that has the top 20 picks out is skewing the data.

 

[tigersnake]

so back to this, to benchmark us:

2011 B Ellis pick 15
2012 Vlastuin pick 9
2013 Lennon pick 12
2014 C Ellis pick 12
2015 Rioli pick 15
2016 No first round pick, traded for Prestia (Bolton pick 29 )
2017 CCJ pick 20
2018 RCD pick 20
2019 Dow pick 21
2020 No first round pick, traded for Geelong future
2021 Gibcus pick 8

So on our recruiting record, objectively. We've had 3 top 10 picks in 10 years, (importantly, none in the top 5), we took 2, which I'd say we nailed. The data says you nail 1 out of 3 (28% chance of 200 gamer). We've nailed 2 out of 2, or 3 out of 3, depending on how you want to look at it. We have beaten the odds convincingly with Vlastuin and gibcus, and got Prestia into the bargain, (and I won't mention Bolton because I know you love your arbitrary pick 18 cuttoff )

So of the remaining 11-20 pick bracket, 2 outright, unequivocal busts, and I'll give you RCD. I reckon CCJ is a bust too as a player, but we got our money back on him so he wasn't a complete bust for us, neutral. I'll put the future trade as neutral too, but I feel good about Brown. Dow hard to assess, for balance I'll call him a win, but its debateable.

So sample of 6, Lennon, C Ellis, RCD crosses. B. Ellis, Rioli, Dow Ticks.

50% strike rate, The numbers set the benchmark at 48% chance of 100 gamer, 27% 200 gamer. I'd argue we've beaten the odds comfortably. The cherry on top, for me, was the Geelong future trade.

So you say our first round drafting has been a disaster, the numbers don't lie, and say the opposite. Depending on how you get into the nitty gritty and how harsh want to be, objectively, we've been solid at worst, and pretty damn good at best.

My analysis back in early 22, which was back-of-the-envelope rough, was better. This was in response to someone who is in the our drafting it terrible camp.

 

[bullus_hit]

My analysis back in early 22, which was back-of-the-envelope rough, was better. This was in response to someone who is in the our drafting it terrible camp.

The most stripped down basic measure would be 3 core players from any given year, I think we can get caught up in the first round theatrics but the real measure of greatness is the type of players being picked after the first 40 names are called. When Jackson nominated his best draft as being the 2014 haul I agreed with him, early busts in CEllis & Menadue but slayed it with Butler, Short, Lambert, Castagna & Soldo. Very few recruiters would be abe to replicate that type of recovery, in fact he was 1 pick away from making it Richmond's best haul since the draft was introduced. Swap CEllis with Weller and you have a bona fide royal flush.

 

[Jonesracing82]

The most stripped down basic measure would be 3 core players from any given year, I think we can get caught up in the first round theatrics but the real measure of greatness is the type of players being picked after the first 40 names are called. When Jackson nominated his best draft as being the 2014 haul I agreed with him, early busts in CEllis & Menadue but slayed it with Butler, Short, Lambert, Castagna & Soldo. Very few recruiters would be abe to replicate that type of recovery, in fact he was 1 pick away from making it Richmond's best haul since the draft was introduced. Swap CEllis with Weller and you have a bona fide royal flush.

I always marvel at the '14 Rookie Draft crop. For the sake of nailing the entire Draft who would you swap for Menadue?

 

[The Mole]

I always marvel at the '14 Rookie Draft crop. For the sake of nailing the entire Draft who would you swap for Menadue?

Harris Andrews pick 61.

 

[Scoop]

The most stripped down basic measure would be 3 core players from any given year, I think we can get caught up in the first round theatrics but the real measure of greatness is the type of players being picked after the first 40 names are called. When Jackson nominated his best draft as being the 2014 haul I agreed with him, early busts in CEllis & Menadue but slayed it with Butler, Short, Lambert, Castagna & Soldo. Very few recruiters would be abe to replicate that type of recovery, in fact he was 1 pick away from making it Richmond's best haul since the draft was introduced. Swap CEllis with Weller and you have a bona fide royal flush.

3 Core players a draft minimum, is a great way to judge. Doesn't matter what pick. Sure, you need to look at your process for first and seconds and aim to improve but 3 core players every draft you are doing well.

I always marvel at the '14 Rookie Draft crop. For the sake of nailing the entire Draft who would you swap for Menadue?

Bully and I were in agreement with the first two picks, both wanted Weller and Connor Blakely.

 

[taztiger4]

I always marvel at the '14 Rookie Draft crop. For the sake of nailing the entire Draft who would you swap for Menadue?

semantics maybe , but it was actually the 2015 Rookie Draft , held on 3rd Dec 2014

 

[bullus_hit]

I always marvel at the '14 Rookie Draft crop. For the sake of nailing the entire Draft who would you swap for Menadue?

As Scoop mentioned it was Weller & Blakely, same player types, only a slight recalibration with the wingman going early and the inside mid in the second round. The decision to take CEllis was particularly risky given he largely played as an outside playmaker at state level, I think Jackson put too much emphasis on his inside work at TAC level, this can give you the bum steer at times, the Lennon pick was also skewed by some midfield performances playing for the Knights.

Harris Andrews pick 61.

In hindsight most definitely, that was an outstanding pick, could have even replaced Drummond who went a few picks earlier.

 

[tigersnake]

The most stripped down basic measure would be 3 core players from any given year, I think we can get caught up in the first round theatrics but the real measure of greatness is the type of players being picked after the first 40 names are called. When Jackson nominated his best draft as being the 2014 haul I agreed with him, early busts in CEllis & Menadue but slayed it with Butler, Short, Lambert, Castagna & Soldo. Very few recruiters would be abe to replicate that type of recovery, in fact he was 1 pick away from making it Richmond's best haul since the draft was introduced. Swap CEllis with Weller and you have a bona fide royal flush.

I don't disagree, the objective after all is to get good players to the club.

BUT, there is more too it, and I always find the discussion interesting. The data says its a numbers game, the superstars get drafted early, good players get drafted not so early, footsoldiers and role players get drafted anywhere, with an ever decreasing strikerate as the draft number gets bigger.

Also as I've often said, the term 'first round' is misleading, top 4 is diff to top 10 is diff to top 18 or 20.

An interesting thought, to me at least, There would probably be no way to measure it, but I wonder if there is a 'early pick nerves/ stagger/ pressure -factor? and does it have much of an impact? The earlier your pick the higher the stakes, the more you might second guess yourself, crap your dacks etc, whereas late picks are a free hit, you can back yourself and nobody will really scrutinise it.

Shai Bolton is an interesting case in point, he was our first pick that year. Now judged as the hindsight no. 1 pick, and I've heard it said he was always the no. 1 even at the time, although you take that with a GOS. Would we have taken him with an earlier pick if we had it? Why did other clubs pass, 28 times!? Too small? Did he bring some KFC to an interview? Interesting

 

[Scoop]

The decision to take CEllis was particularly risky given he largely played as an outside playmaker at state level, I think Jackson put too much emphasis on his inside work at TAC level,

I got told by someone in AFL land at the time that Ellis was a good pick and that he showed so much composure and had time with the ball, it was low risk according to the person. I didn’t like the pick at the time but I semi defended it based off that. I would rather fail picking true mids than Ben Lennon hoping he becomes a mid.

 

[bullus_hit]

I don't disagree, the objective after all is to get good players to the club.

BUT, there is more too it, and I always find the discussion interesting. The data says its a numbers game, the superstars get drafted early, good players get drafted not so early, footsoldiers and role players get drafted anywhere, with an ever decreasing strikerate as the draft number gets bigger.

Also as I've often said, the term 'first round' is misleading, top 4 is diff to top 10 is diff to top 18 or 20.

An interesting thought, to me at least, There would probably be no way to measure it, but I wonder if there is a 'early pick nerves/ stagger/ pressure -factor? and does it have much of an impact? The earlier your pick the higher the stakes, the more you might second guess yourself, crap your dacks etc, whereas late picks are a free hit, you can back yourself and nobody will really scrutinise it.

Shai Bolton is an interesting case in point, he was our first pick that year. Now judged as the hindsight no. 1 pick, and I've heard it said he was always the no. 1 even at the time, although you take that with a GOS. Would we have taken him with an earlier pick if we had it? Why did other clubs pass, 28 times!? Too small? Did he bring some KFC to an interview? Interesting

You raise some good points, as a recruiter do I roll the dice on a tall forward with a top 15 pick & risk coming up empty handed or do I play it safe with a well-rounded mid. Such a tough one to answer, I had that dilemma in deciding between Hewett & Jefferson, in the end I picked Hewett because it felt prudent to shift some of that risk into the third round. St Kilda went the opposite direction when they picked McCartin over Petracca, that looks to be a poor choice now, they also knocked back 2 top ten picks which could have split the risk even further, Lever & Wright probably the perfect compromise in that particular scenario.

As for Bolton, he was a top 20 lock as far as I could see, not sure about pick 1, I think McCluggage & Taranto were jostling for that position. Tim English was the player some judges had at 1, I thought he was a steal for the Doggies after winning the premiership. My personal knock on Bolton was his slightly loopy kicking action but that appears to have been ironed out after a few seasons at the top level. There were also some question marks about professionalism, a few judges felt he didn't impose himself enough on matches, very similar to the knocks on Keeler if the truth be known.

I got told by someone in AFL land at the time that Ellis was a good pick and that he showed so much composure and had time with the ball, it was low risk according to the person. I didn’t like the pick at the time but I semi defended it based off that. I would rather fail picking true mids than Ben Lennon hoping he becomes a mid.

Whilst I agree with the sentiments I'm not so sure CEllis had proven himself as a genuine inside player, he was very scrawny & played mostly wing at state level. He was also slow so it really came down to midfield extractor or bust, lovely left peg but simply too one paced for a wing role, same issues Patrick Naish had to contend with. Blakely, despite having a wretched kicking action was proven in the inside role, he pretty much impacted from day one and has still managed to stay in the system.

 

[Jonesracing82]

You raise some good points, as a recruiter do I roll the dice on a tall forward with a top 15 pick & risk coming up empty handed or do I play it safe with a well-rounded mid. Such a tough one to answer, I had that dilemma in deciding between Hewett & Jefferson, in the end I picked Hewett because it felt prudent to shift some of that risk into the third round. St Kilda went the opposite direction when they picked McCartin over Petracca, that looks to be a poor choice now, they also knocked back 2 top ten picks which could have split the risk even further, Lever & Wright probably the perfect compromise in that particular scenario.

As for Bolton, he was a top 20 lock as far as I could see, not sure about pick 1, I think McCluggage & Taranto were jostling for that position. Tim English was the player some judges had at 1, I thought he was a steal for the Doggies after winning the premiership. My personal knock on Bolton was his slightly loopy kicking action but that appears to have been ironed out after a few seasons at the top level. There were also some question marks about professionalism, a few judges felt he didn't impose himself enough on matches, very similar to the knocks on Keeler if the truth be known.


Whilst I agree with the sentiments I'm not so sure CEllis had proven himself as a genuine inside player, he was very scrawny & played mostly wing at state level. He was also slow so it really came down to midfield extractor or bust, lovely left peg but simply too one paced for a wing role, same issues Patrick Naish had to contend with. Blakely, despite having a wretched kicking action was proven in the inside role, he pretty much impacted from day one and has still managed to stay in the system.

Could have got Blakely as a DFA this off season if he was worth the punt.

Just on Naish, in his Draft yr, the AFL prospectus had him at 23% CP rate. The cut off for player to "make it" at AFL level is around 30% according to that book, which needs to make a comeback BTW. For context B.Ellis was at 30% as a jnr.