2022 Draft Thread | PUNT ROAD END | Richmond Tigers Forum
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2022 Draft Thread

bullus_hit

Whatchu talkin about Jack?
Apr 3, 2006
15,227
5,668
Could have got Blakely as a DFA this off season if he was worth the punt.

Just on Naish, in his Draft yr, the AFL prospectus had him at 23% CP rate. The cut off for player to "make it" at AFL level is around 30% according to that book, which needs to make a comeback BTW. For context B.Ellis was at 30% as a jnr.
Fair line in the sand, I would always balance that with the ability to get 12 contested possessions a game, that's enough in my book, the rest comes down to using it well, not sure Naish has the polish required nor the break away speed for AFL.
 
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bullus_hit

Whatchu talkin about Jack?
Apr 3, 2006
15,227
5,668
So I've been pondering the question as to who is the best recruiter in the AFL, plenty in the Wells camp but does this actually stack up with reality or has it been a case of top ups & rorting the AFL system?

2008 - pick 15 Mitchell Brown (80 games)
2009 - pick 17 Daniel Menzel (80 games)
2010 - pick 15 Billy Smedts (47 games)
2012 - pick 16 Jackson Thurlow (53 games)
2013 - pick 17 Darcy Lang (64 games)
2014 - pick 10 Nakia Cockatoo (49 games)
2018 - pick 15 Jordan Clark (56 games)
2019 - pick 17 Cooper Stevens (7 games)
pick 19 Sam De Koning (24 games)
2020 - pick 20 Max Holmes (30 games)
2022 - pick 8 Jhye Clark (0 games)

15 years of top 20 picks and we are still empty handed when it comes to centurians, plenty of leftfield selections, the best looks to be De Koning but let's see how that pans out over the next 5 years. I think his first round strike has been poor, I also don't think he's in the Francis Jackson class although it's difficult to compare given Richmond have had more top 10 picks.
 
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Smoking Aces

Batten Down The Hatches
Sep 21, 2007
20,874
18,594
So I've been pondering the question as to who is the best recruiter in the AFL, plenty in the Wells camp but does this actually stack up with reality or has it been a case of top ups & rorting the AFL system?

2008 - pick 15 Mitchell Brown (80 games)
2009 - pick 17 Daniel Menzel (80 games)
2010 - pick 15 Billy Smedts (47 games)
2012 - pick 16 Jackson Thurlow (53 games)
2013 - pick 17 Darcy Lang (64 games)
2014 - pick 10 Nakia Cockatoo (49 games)
2018 - pick 15 Jordan Clark (56 games)
2019 - pick 17 Cooper Stevens (7 games)
pick 19 Sam De Koning (24 games)
2020 - pick 20 Max Holmes (30 games)
2022 - pick 8 Jhye Clark (0 games)

15 years of top 20 picks and we are still empty handed when it comes to centurians, plenty of leftfield selections, the best looks to be De Koning but let's see how that pans out over the next 5 years. I think his first round strike has been poor, I also don't think he's in the Francis Jackson class although it's difficult to compare given Richmond have had more top 10 picks.
My theory is all kids can play the game at junior level. For me it comes down to the club in terms of how it operates and more importantly its ability to coach and develop players.

Let’s cast our mind back to us missing Buddy. At that point in time we were the wrong club for him. We didn’t have the right mechanisms in place to develop him. Fast forward 10 years and it’s a totally different story. History is littered with these types of scenarios. Take Jack Watts for example. Every recruiter in the land would have taken him at pick 1. It’s just unfortunate he went to Melbourne who at the time were a basket case.
 
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Scoop

Tiger Legend
Dec 8, 2004
24,977
14,190
So I've been pondering the question as to who is the best recruiter in the AFL, plenty in the Wells camp but does this actually stack up with reality or has it been a case of top ups & rorting the AFL system?

2008 - pick 15 Mitchell Brown (80 games)
2009 - pick 17 Daniel Menzel (80 games)
2010 - pick 15 Billy Smedts (47 games)
2012 - pick 16 Jackson Thurlow (53 games)
2013 - pick 17 Darcy Lang (64 games)
2014 - pick 10 Nakia Cockatoo (49 games)
2018 - pick 15 Jordan Clark (56 games)
2019 - pick 17 Cooper Stevens (7 games)
pick 19 Sam De Koning (24 games)
2020 - pick 20 Max Holmes (30 games)
2022 - pick 8 Jhye Clark (0 games)

15 years of top 20 picks and we are still empty handed when it comes to centurians, plenty of leftfield selections, the best looks to be De Koning but let's see how that pans out over the next 5 years. I think his first round strike has been poor, I also don't think he's in the Francis Jackson class although it's difficult to compare given Richmond have had more top 10 picks.
Hang on Bobby, you agreed with Jackson comprised drafts need to be taken out, same here.

Clark, De Koning and Holmes look like being more than core players, that’s remarkable for picks after 15. And Clark is safe as houses. Under only the most preconceived conditions could Wells be listed as anything but a industry benchmark.
 

Jonesracing82

Tiger Champion
Sep 30, 2011
4,530
3,287
So I've been pondering the question as to who is the best recruiter in the AFL, plenty in the Wells camp but does this actually stack up with reality or has it been a case of top ups & rorting the AFL system?

2008 - pick 15 Mitchell Brown (80 games)
2009 - pick 17 Daniel Menzel (80 games)
2010 - pick 15 Billy Smedts (47 games)
2012 - pick 16 Jackson Thurlow (53 games)
2013 - pick 17 Darcy Lang (64 games)
2014 - pick 10 Nakia Cockatoo (49 games)
2018 - pick 15 Jordan Clark (56 games)
2019 - pick 17 Cooper Stevens (7 games)
pick 19 Sam De Koning (24 games)
2020 - pick 20 Max Holmes (30 games)
2022 - pick 8 Jhye Clark (0 games)

15 years of top 20 picks and we are still empty handed when it comes to centurians, plenty of leftfield selections, the best looks to be De Koning but let's see how that pans out over the next 5 years. I think his first round strike has been poor, I also don't think he's in the Francis Jackson class although it's difficult to compare given Richmond have had more top 10 picks.
IMO & as seen here his drafting doesn't add up to the "Wells has done it again" narrative the media ram down our throats each yr. Where he's done well is trading, he's been exceptional at that.
 
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bullus_hit

Whatchu talkin about Jack?
Apr 3, 2006
15,227
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Hang on Bobby, you agreed with Jackson comprised drafts need to be taken out, same here.

Clark, De Koning and Holmes look like being more than core players, that’s remarkable for picks after 15. And Clark is safe as houses. Under only the most preconceived conditions could Wells be listed as anything but a industry benchmark.
But my point is a salient one, he hasn't recruited a 100 gamer in 15 years, Clark is decent but he was mismanaged and then let go. Wells has also missed quite a few over the journey, even with his most productive recruits (Brown/Menzel) haven't lived up to the hype prior to being drafted. People slate FJ over Lennon & CEllis but I reckon it's a much better record than Wells over the same period.

Is Wells such a genius? Not in my book, he's been slightly above average, he's benefitted enormously from F&S rules, his record with talls is ok but nothing jaw dropping, his biggest hits have been from the state leagues so when sizing up teenage cattle he definitely does attempt to be a maverick (with limited effect). He's surprised me on a number of occasions, namely Thurlow who was rated third round by most, Lang was another who bolted out of nowhere, Smedts another who went 10 places higher than he should.
 
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Scoop

Tiger Legend
Dec 8, 2004
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Francis Jackson had much lower picks, Geelong were a finals side. Very unfair and unbalanced analysis.

Look at what Wells has done after the first round, he’s a genius.
 

tigerdell

Hope springs infernal
Mar 29, 2014
4,682
5,375
Francis Jackson had much lower picks, Geelong were a finals side. Very unfair and unbalanced analysis.

Look at what Wells has done after the first round, he’s a genius.
BEllis, Rioli, Vlastuin.
All miles ahead of the cats first rounders (10-20 since 2008)
Even Higgins would be better than any of that crop

Further back Rance and Riewoldt are stars.
 

eZyT

Tiger Legend
Jun 28, 2019
21,516
26,012
Who would you rate the worst recruiter of the last decade, Dodoro excluded?
 

bullus_hit

Whatchu talkin about Jack?
Apr 3, 2006
15,227
5,668
Francis Jackson had much lower picks, Geelong were a finals side. Very unfair and unbalanced analysis.

Look at what Wells has done after the first round, he’s a genius.
He's overrated & the Dad's Army style of list management has masked quite a few shortcomings which will be exposed when Hawkins, Cameron, Duncan, Guthrie & Danger all retire. I will give him credit on a number of fronts, he pioneered the state league approach & shifted the goal posts every year so opposition clubs were clueless as to when he would strike, Tim Kelly & Harry Taylor excellent examples of outfoxing and maximising returns on that count. His eye for flair pretty good but sometimes too much of a premium, that is the reason his top 20 picks make for pedestrian viewing. Francis Jackson the better manager of blue chip picks, his conservatism was just the tonic Richmond needed when building from ground zero. But I will add that Jackson became a man for all seasons & switching the focus slightly away from kicking skills to raw pace changed the way the game was played, quite literally given the AFL changed the rules to stop Richmond winning. The proof will be in the pudding with regards to Wells, in three years time we will see the true state of the Geelong Football Club.
 
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Scoop

Tiger Legend
Dec 8, 2004
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BEllis, Rioli, Vlastuin.
All miles ahead of the cats first rounders (10-20 since 2008)
Even Higgins would be better than any of that crop

Further back Rance and Riewoldt are stars.
Wells will win this easily. Don’t do it.

Harder to draft in a side that has been so successful for so long.
 

tigerdell

Hope springs infernal
Mar 29, 2014
4,682
5,375
Wells will win this easily. Don’t do it.

Harder to draft in a side that has been so successful for so long.
yeah, responding to your post that it was harder for Wells in the first round.
In the last 10 years we've been in a similar draft spot. And Wells hasnt come up trumps.


Overall he may be one of the best. Some terrific picks, many ordinary picks and trades.
Think that we fell into a similar trap as he did - once we started winning and had picks 15-19, the impetus is to unearth a gem. And not pick the next best player (Dow v Robertson)
 
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Jonesracing82

Tiger Champion
Sep 30, 2011
4,530
3,287
Also responsible for Toumpas over Wines, that was unforgiveable, 2 Brownlow medalists missed & for the cherry on top, Lukas Cook at pick 12 delivered zero games.
I guess the Dees got the result they were asking for by still picking him up after that.
 

TigerFurious

Smooth
Dec 17, 2002
3,621
4,852
So I've been pondering the question as to who is the best recruiter in the AFL, plenty in the Wells camp but does this actually stack up with reality or has it been a case of top ups & rorting the AFL system?

2008 - pick 15 Mitchell Brown (80 games)
2009 - pick 17 Daniel Menzel (80 games)
2010 - pick 15 Billy Smedts (47 games)
2012 - pick 16 Jackson Thurlow (53 games)
2013 - pick 17 Darcy Lang (64 games)
2014 - pick 10 Nakia Cockatoo (49 games)
2018 - pick 15 Jordan Clark (56 games)
2019 - pick 17 Cooper Stevens (7 games)
pick 19 Sam De Koning (24 games)
2020 - pick 20 Max Holmes (30 games)
2022 - pick 8 Jhye Clark (0 games)

15 years of top 20 picks and we are still empty handed when it comes to centurians, plenty of leftfield selections, the best looks to be De Koning but let's see how that pans out over the next 5 years. I think his first round strike has been poor, I also don't think he's in the Francis Jackson class although it's difficult to compare given Richmond have had more top 10 picks.
Almost like those mid to late teen picks are vastly overrated and have close to the same probability of success as a second or even early third round pick.

Or, Wells is just a hack and got lucky in a couple drafts over 20 years ago and has been dining out on it ever since. This millenniums Greg Miller.