2022 - March to the finals | PUNT ROAD END | Richmond Tigers Forum
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2022 - March to the finals

RoarEmotion

Tiger Champion
Aug 20, 2005
4,944
6,454
The lambo retirement and shedda 300 are the perfect media cover this week so all week isn’t spent on the 14 / 20 points we’ve coughed up in the last 5 weeks of footy.

Including the brain space for those here on PRE.
 
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btoz_01

Tiger Legend
Apr 5, 2004
11,046
5,464
In my mind, we're definitely making finals.

We haven't been outplayed for several months now. Not once.

Our defence is getting tighter with Tarrant settling in beautifully now.

We have star players about to come back

And we have a handful of promising young players to play a role like the Townsend/Graham types did late in 2017.

Overall, we're one of the in-form teams of the AFL over the 2nd half of the season and nobody has found a way to dismantle our system.

The only question in recent pages of this thread comes from a couple of close games going the other way. But a coin toss going the other way doesn't affect the outcome of next week's game.

There's a 12.5% chance of flipping tails 3 times in a row, but if you read the newspapers, the AFL media will paint the story as if we're now a 12.5% of winning any close game. It's misleading, and it invites negative thinking. For example, on match day their pre-game showed footage of us vs Freo from 2005 or so. See how far back they reached to manufacture a story to set expectations for what's in our future?

The RFC writes this story. And the only thing this group hasn't done is win a premiership from outside the top 4 - to win a premiership the hard way.

Everything is lining up for us to tick that box.
We will only play finals if we stop playing players that are injured , playing players out of position and FFS stop gifting games
 
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tommystigers

Don't Boo! It is hurtful to the inept and corrupt.
Oct 6, 2004
4,443
2,334
This has the potential be the most wasteful year we've ever had as club - we are capable of winning the flag and we will likely finish 9th.
Yep. 2018 was one wasted game that cost us a flag. This season has waste on a rinse and repeat cycle.
 
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tommystigers

Don't Boo! It is hurtful to the inept and corrupt.
Oct 6, 2004
4,443
2,334
1. We haven't been outplayed for several months now. Not once.

2. Overall, we're one of the in-form teams of the AFL over the 2nd half of the season and nobody has found a way to dismantle our system.

3. The only question in recent pages of this thread comes from a couple of close games going the other way. But a coin toss going the other way doesn't affect the outcome of next week's game.

The RFC writes this story. And the only thing this group hasn't done is win a premiership from outside the top 4 - to win a premiership the hard way.

Everything is lining up for us to tick that box.

I like your enthusiasm and bright outlook Cups. To counter your claims I put it to you that:

1. We have definitely been outcoached multiple times these past few months. If you don't select the correct cattle and play them in the correct position you are pushing boulders up a hill.

2. We have dismantled our own system. Choking up leads like a cat hawking up a hairball. Fumbling, bumbling, brain fades and explosions. Anti-Richmond.

3. A couple of close games going the other way is weasel speak for mental weakness. We didn't lose those games in some heroic fashion: Brave, courageous, compelling. We whimpered our way out of winning. We lost. Our opposition didn't win. The Norf game was the epitome of failure.

The RFC does write this story.*
(* Provided Bulldogs and StKilda lose)
I would love to see a win from outside the 4. However, I don't see everything lining up for that accomplishment. I see a Richmond that has consistently failed to address glaring deficiencies despite claims of "we will learn" and "we will better for it". In order to execute change you actually need to plan for and implement it. We haven't.
 
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Carter

Tiger Legend
Nov 14, 2012
9,348
7,515
Need to win eight finals in a row from here.

On current form we can’t even put four quarters together.

A dynasty team deserves belief, but it’s getting pretty hard to trust this group. I smell the same malaise that infected us last year.
 
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Ian4

BIN MAN!
May 6, 2004
22,180
4,679
Melbourne
Need to win eight finals in a row from here.

On current form we can’t even put four quarters together.

A dynasty team deserves belief, but it’s getting pretty hard to trust this group. I smell the same malaise that infected us last year.

I posted something like this mid-season. I said something along the lines of our season being on the brink and that we could have a big run like in 2019 or we could die in the arse like 2021.

We beat Port and Carlton after the bye and i‘m thinking “yes, we’re back!” But injuries continued to mount, and we kept finding crazy ways to lose games.

I don’t think we’re a sh!t team. We are a good team that can’t keep its squad together and make dumb decisions in close games.

Looking at things in more of a long term perspective, the most important thing we need to do is stay competitive while we overturn our squad and the next generation takes over. We need to be the next Sydney or Geelong that continues to stay competitive. I don't think i could stomach a rebuild where we're out of finals for 3-4 years.
 
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Harry

Tiger Legend
Mar 2, 2003
24,450
11,848
Hoping Lynch is the key ingredient that will make things happen for us to win our next 8 games.
 
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UKTiger

Tiger Legend
Jul 11, 2010
9,220
7,384
Shipston on Stour, UK
We will only play finals if we stop playing players that are injured , playing players out of position and FFS stop gifting games
I also hope we do get to the finals but our biggest problem getting there is the team have lost that 'all for one' style from the previous five years and go through the motions instead of the gang mentality. The players are still good enough but the spirit and hunger are missing. I reckon the 2023 team will be significantly different to the one we have today what with delisting's, retirements and newcomers
 

achillesjones

"just kick it to Royce"
Apr 19, 2004
3,528
2,938
Castagna's stuffup was evidence that the team first mantra is dying in the arse. Players start playing for their spots.
 

123cups

Tiger Champion
May 1, 2016
3,099
4,076
I like your enthusiasm and bright outlook Cups. To counter your claims I put it to you that:

1. We have definitely been outcoached multiple times these past few months. If you don't select the correct cattle and play them in the correct position you are pushing boulders up a hill.

2. We have dismantled our own system. Choking up leads like a cat hawking up a hairball. Fumbling, bumbling, brain fades and explosions. Anti-Richmond.

3. A couple of close games going the other way is weasel speak for mental weakness. We didn't lose those games in some heroic fashion: Brave, courageous, compelling. We whimpered our way out of winning. We lost. Our opposition didn't win. The Norf game was the epitome of failure.

The RFC does write this story.*
(* Provided Bulldogs and StKilda lose)
I would love to see a win from outside the 4. However, I don't see everything lining up for that accomplishment. I see a Richmond that has consistently failed to address glaring deficiencies despite claims of "we will learn" and "we will better for it". In order to execute change you actually need to plan for and implement it. We haven't.

Some good points you raise. I'll counter with the following:

1. It's true that the coach has made selection mistakes throughout the season. But it's acceptable because you'll always have hits and misses when you are trying new things, and we needed to try new things.

Still, this team has not been outplayed in 2-3 months, and by that I mean, nobody has made us look like the definitive 2nd best team on a football field in months. That's a promising sign compared to 12 months ago.

2. The outcome of a couple of games isn't evidence of a problem with the process or system. Perform an action a thousand times and you'll end up with an expected ratio. That's the system. The last few minutes of a game, and only from a couple of recent losses, are just the most recent coin tosses from a larger system. The losses should therefore not be viewed as reflective of the overall system, and shouldn't guide our expectations for the next handful of outcomes.

3. We would need a larger sample size to attribute these losses to mental weakness. When we zoom out to include a larger sample size of this team's performance in high-pressure games, there's 3 premierships of evidence to the contrary in recent history.

I don't see a flawless team. But I do see a unique Richmond that looks to have addressed key weaknesses from earlier in the season. It's a team that has improved on where they were 12 months ago, 6 months ago, and 3 months ago.

So, this is an ever-changing team that's looking better defensively, with Martin and Lynch soon to add to an already dangerous and unpredictable team with the ball, and fresh young players stepping up to play various roles that the team needed. Subjectively, I also like the hunger and intensity in general play.

If we win this week, we'd back ourselves to enter the finals off 4 straight wins, with a refreshed best 22, and 3-4 months of never once being definitively beaten on our day.

Yeah, you always need a bit of luck to win premierships... but what if we're luckier in September than we were in July?
 
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MalenyTiger

Tiger Superstar
Jan 27, 2005
2,280
746
I like your optimism cups and similarly I think we aren't out of this... yet. I hope you can change your name to 1234 cups by the end of this season.
 
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gold1

Tiger Champion
Feb 24, 2008
2,810
1,131
Interesting comments here.History has shown that the Tiges can win a flag out of nowhere 1969 being a case in point.In fact this season is very like that year injuries to key players that came back at the pointy end of the year.My take is all we need to do is to scrape into the eight even if that was the last round so long as we then had a fit Lynch,Martin,Nanks,Cotch,etc for the finals.
 

23.21.159

A Tiger in Denmark
Aug 9, 2003
6,116
2,283
Denmark
www.dafl.dk
The thing is, we are currently out of the eight, which means we could win every game and still miss out.
We are already relying on other teams losing (ideally the Bulldogs).
They have to lose one more than we do from here on in.

We play: Brisbane (MCG), Port (Adelaide), Hawthorn (MCG), Essendon (MCG).
They play: Geelong (Alphabet Park), Freo (Marvel), GWS (Marvel), Hawthorn (Tasmania).

Not looking good.
Geelong's other games are against St Kilda, Gold Coast and West Coast - all very winnable so with a game and percentage on second, they pretty much have top spot sewn up even if they lose to the Dogs, which I expect they will do on purpose. And as much as I despise them, I wouldn't blame them one bit, and it is the ultimate compliment to Richmond.
If that happens, it's pretty much all over for us. Down to Freo - thank God they still need to win games.
 
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UKTiger

Tiger Legend
Jul 11, 2010
9,220
7,384
Shipston on Stour, UK
A loss this week will be the signal for the MC to start blooding more of our youngsters to replace the aging stars to see where we are before the draft
 
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Leysy Days

Tiger Legend
Feb 26, 2004
21,331
7,933
With the bookies Dogs would be around 10/1 to win all remaining games.

We win all ours we'll make it. That is the harder part.
 
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