A consensus player rating system - preliminary discussion

[Dyer'ere]

Champion data rates players by role and then qualitatively (largely quantitatively).

The roles seem to be something like -
Starting mid
Change mid
Tall forward
Small forward
Tall back
Small back
Ruck
Some other ruck dud

Ratings within roles -
Below average - lowest 33% grade of player
Average - middle 33% grade
Above average - top 33%
Elite - top 10% of player (falls within top 33% range.)

I'm putting this out there so we can loosely agree on some ratings and maybe get our own ratings system going. Not too far from Champion at first is my thinking.

We're brainstorming over time. Your contribution is welcome.

Get shwifty or spoony and...

 

[Dyer'ere]

To get some controversy underway and eventually some clarity I'd like to put up Jacob Van Rooyen.

What is he? #1 forward? By no means. #2? How do his numbers look there? What numbers are we using? Is he #3 forward? Is he a ruck? No more than Shaun Grigg. Do his his ruck numbers make him special?

Who is Jacob Van Rooyen? How do we measure that? Can he improve? Measures? Is he getting worse? Measures.

I want JVR to be good at something but the numbers are steady and below average but for the spread. And then still below average.

Short. Game, but can't jump. Invested but not insightful. Are there numbers to that effect? Hey, maybe I'm misreading him.

Can we get a better one this draft? It may not be good for talls but I don't think JVR is much of a tall. We can do better. A battling J Whitlock is super mobile and can get space and then out the back. He can get air.

How do we rate JVR? We should ask Jason Taylor. He may know by now where he went wrong.

 

[Sintiger]

To get some controversy underway and eventually some clarity I'd like to put up Jacob Van Rooyen.

What is he? #1 forward? By no means. #2? How do his numbers look there? What numbers are we using? Is he #3 forward? Is he a ruck? No more than Shaun Grigg. Do his his ruck numbers make him special?

Who is Jacob Van Rooyen? How do we measure that? Can he improve? Measures? Is he getting worse? Measures.

I want JVR to be good at something but the numbers are steady and below average but for the spread. And then still below average.

Short. Game, but can't jump. Invested but not insightful. Are there numbers to that effect? Hey, maybe I'm misreading him.

Can we get a better one this draft? It may not be good for talls but I don't think JVR is much of a tall. We can do better. A battling J Whitlock is super mobile and can get space and then out the back. He can get air.

How do we rate JVR? We should ask Jason Taylor. He may know by now where he went wrong.

On Vandenhoogenband the ratings probably have it about right.
He is a decent KPF but not in the class of the really good ones. He is a decent back up ruck, but not an exceptional one.
He is the type of player who can be very valuable but only if he is teamed up with a top level KPF. Then he won’t get the best defender and he won’t be the main focus.
We need one like him but only as one of two imo. He is a 2nd banana and if we recruit one like him we still need to replace Lynch imo.
Big tick for him is that he kicks really well for goal, gold for a KPF.

 

[TigerFurious]

Harsh judgement re: JVR.

Third year key forward averaging 1.4gpg in a dysfunctional Melbourne forward line. I’d be rapt if we had a young key forward with that kind of output.

Also, are you aware that JVR was taken two picks after Tom Brown in the 2021 draft? Pretty sure, it’s against site rules not to mention this fact every time a discussion on JVR or Tom Brown occurs in a thread

 

[Sintiger]

Harsh judgement re: JVR.

Third year key forward averaging 1.4gpg in a dysfunctional Melbourne forward line. I’d be rapt if we had a young key forward with that kind of output.

Also, are you aware that JVR was taken two picks after Tom Brown in the 2021 draft? Pretty sure, it’s against site rules not to mention this fact every time a discussion on JVR or Tom Brown occurs in a thread

IMO he is a good player TF but not an exceptional one.

The potential exceptional KPFs are JUH and Cadman. I don't put JVR in that category but I may be wrong, to me Cadman and JUH are more mobile and better on the ground that JVR, more rounded footballers. To me they could be Jeremy Cameron class moving forward.

I tend to not engage in where players are picked because there is nothing I can do about it. Tom Brown is a Richmond player and JVR is not.

 

[Brodders17]

Also, are you aware that JVR was taken two picks after Tom Brown in the 2021 draft?

Are you sure? I thought he was drafted the pick after Richard Tambling?

 

[TigerFurious]

IMO he is a good player TF but not an exceptional one.

The potential exceptional KPFs are JUH and Cadman. I don't put JVR in that category but I may be wrong, to me Cadman and JUH are more mobile and better on the ground that JVR, more rounded footballers. To me they could be Jeremy Cameron class moving forward.

I tend to not engage in where players are picked because there is nothing I can do about it. Tom Brown is a Richmond player and JVR is not.

Sometimes good enough is… well… good enough.

Agree JVR isn’t on the same trajectory has JUH or Cadman but he is on track to become a 2gpg key forward and that’s pretty good for a player taken pick 19 in the 2021 draft, two picks after Tom Brown

 

[Sintiger]

Sometimes good enough is… well… good enough.

Agree JVR isn’t on the same trajectory has JUH or Cadman but he is on track to become a 2gpg key forward and that’s pretty good for a player taken pick 19 in the 2021 draft, two picks after Tom Brown

I think we broadly agree and that's about what he is, a 40-45 goal key forward and back up ruck. Nothing wrong with that.

He is a good player and I would be happy to get one like him but I would then still think we need someone else to truly replace someone like Lynch. Who is the player who is a potential Coleman medallist we can get ? Is Armstrong that guy because plenty on here don't think so?

Just to argue against myself sometimes you can get true KPF gems at lower picks but they are rare, Treacy could be one, Larkey is close. Teams can be very good with a couple of JVRs as long as they have high quality small and medium goal kicking forwards around them.

 

[Smilliedell]

Champion data rates players by role and then qualitatively (largely quantitatively).

The roles seem to be something like -
Starting mid
Change mid
Tall forward
Small forward
Tall back
Small back
Ruck
Some other ruck dud

Ratings within roles -
Below average - lowest 33% grade of player
Average - middle 33% grade
Above average - top 33%
Elite - top 10% of player (falls within top 33% range.)

I'm putting this out there so we can loosely agree on some ratings and maybe get our own ratings system going. Not too far from Champion at first is my thinking.

We're brainstorming over time. Your contribution is welcome.

Get shwifty or spoony and...

View attachment 24805

Hold on fella. Ive got some questions first. I dont follow too closely you see.

Say champion data talks about hitting the ball. Either by foot or hand or head (i,m just surmising here). Numbers, always numbers.
Then wasnt there a super coach, Ken Johnny Dee (i think) who said that sometimes you have the ball and sometimes you're looking into space and thinking about a continuum because of the spliff.
Its the three sides of the coin.
So now numbers talk about ground ball getups (gbgs) debutante ball getups (dbgs) defensive efforts (des) and 1on1 contests (1o1co) and stuff.


But the most insightful data point i saw was how often we lost when Brett Delamboghini played/was out.
Which can be really whacked because Shorty played with Dusty.
But thats the goal here.
Can player.doofus help win this game of skittles.
What if each player had a percentage?
Both season and career.
The same % as the team's %, but adjusted for games played?

 

[TigerMasochist]

Hold on fella. Ive got some questions first. I dont follow too closely you see.

Say champion data talks about hitting the ball. Either by foot or hand or head (i,m just surmising here). Numbers, always numbers.
Then wasnt there a super coach, Ken Johnny Dee (i think) who said that sometimes you have the ball and sometimes you're looking into space and thinking about a continuum because of the spliff.
Its the three sides of the coin.
So now numbers talk about ground ball getups (gbgs) debutante ball getups (dbgs) defensive efforts (des) and 1on1 contests (1o1co) and stuff.


But the most insightful data point i saw was how often we lost when Brett Delamboghini played/was out.
Which can be really whacked because Shorty played with Dusty.
But thats the goal here.
Can player.doofus help win this game of skittles.
What if each player had a percentage?
Both season and career.
The same % as the team's %, but adjusted for games played?

Too many spliffs, try some shrooms instead.

 

[Dyer'ere]

Jacob Van Rooyen is a Key Forward. Everybody happy with that? That's his role. Key Forward. We might break that down further in time.

@TigerFurious and @Sintiger I think it's a good idea to factor goals per game in rating a Key Forward. There are lots of other things to consider but goals per game is pretty important. We might look at marks inside 50 and contested marks too. As factors. KPIs.

What else should we look at? One of the things about JVR that goes a bit unnoticed is his spread of activity. He does lot of things. He spoils. He tackles. He rucks. He gets a clearance. He does not get even respectable numbers in any one category but he gets lots of different numbers.

He has an attribute - strength. Another - bravery. So even though he's short and can't jump he is able to work close to goal. His maps show this. I'm trying to think of some numbers that measure this.

JVR works dangerous areas and only them. He's structural. Jeremy Cameron is considered one of the best Key Forwards in the game but he's not structural. He's not constantly in the hole in front, blocking and stopping the bad guys from marking it and even catching it himself sometimes. JVR is part of a structure though. Not the main man. Otherwise the bad guys would just screen him out and mark uncontested.

JVR is just 21yo. Still developing. This thread is about measuring the actual. Finding ways to measure and express that. There are two full years of data available to us. Quite steady data.

Goals per game as a percentage of total team goals is a good number, @TigerFurious.

 

[Dyer'ere]

Hold on fella. Ive got some questions first. I dont follow too closely you see.

Say champion data talks about hitting the ball. Either by foot or hand or head (i,m just surmising here). Numbers, always numbers.
Then wasnt there a super coach, Ken Johnny Dee (i think) who said that sometimes you have the ball and sometimes you're looking into space and thinking about a continuum because of the spliff.
Its the three sides of the coin.
So now numbers talk about ground ball getups (gbgs) debutante ball getups (dbgs) defensive efforts (des) and 1on1 contests (1o1co) and stuff.


But the most insightful data point i saw was how often we lost when Brett Delamboghini played/was out.
Which can be really whacked because Shorty played with Dusty.
But thats the goal here.
Can player.doofus help win this game of skittles.
What if each player had a percentage?
Both season and career.
The same % as the team's %, but adjusted for games played?

I can't agree with Maso on his assessments of your rations, Dell. Have all the spliffs you want and then the shrooms too. Get em in the right order but. Shrooms then grass...

The games won with and without Player A is a good number. An indicator. It was no accident that Brisbane went ape after Will Ablett jr rejoined the team and no accident that Esserdun couldn't scratch themselves when Dudley Parish returned. In the case of fringe players but, I dunno. JVR would be crucial to Melbourne. It's a good thought.

 

[spook]

Hold on fella. Ive got some questions first. I dont follow too closely you see.

Say champion data talks about hitting the ball. Either by foot or hand or head (i,m just surmising here). Numbers, always numbers.
Then wasnt there a super coach, Ken Johnny Dee (i think) who said that sometimes you have the ball and sometimes you're looking into space and thinking about a continuum because of the spliff.
Its the three sides of the coin.
So now numbers talk about ground ball getups (gbgs) debutante ball getups (dbgs) defensive efforts (des) and 1on1 contests (1o1co) and stuff.


But the most insightful data point i saw was how often we lost when Brett Delamboghini played/was out.
Which can be really whacked because Shorty played with Dusty.
But thats the goal here.
Can player.doofus help win this game of skittles.
What if each player had a percentage?
Both season and career.
The same % as the team's %, but adjusted for games played?

You're talking about measures like basketball has with Win Share, and Box Plus-Minus. Measures of impact.

 

[mrposhman]

Jacob Van Rooyen is a Key Forward. Everybody happy with that? That's his role. Key Forward. We might break that down further in time.

@TigerFurious and @Sintiger I think it's a good idea to factor goals per game in rating a Key Forward. There are lots of other things to consider but goals per game is pretty important. We might look at marks inside 50 and contested marks too. As factors. KPIs.

What else should we look at? One of the things about JVR that goes a bit unnoticed is his spread of activity. He does lot of things. He spoils. He tackles. He rucks. He gets a clearance. He does not get even respectable numbers in any one category but he gets lots of different numbers.

He has an attribute - strength. Another - bravery. So even though he's short and can't jump he is able to work close to goal. His maps show this. I'm trying to think of some numbers that measure this.

JVR works dangerous areas and only them. He's structural. Jeremy Cameron is considered one of the best Key Forwards in the game but he's not structural. He's not constantly in the hole in front, blocking and stopping the bad guys from marking it and even catching it himself sometimes. JVR is part of a structure though. Not the main man. Otherwise the bad guys would just screen him out and mark uncontested.

JVR is just 21yo. Still developing. This thread is about measuring the actual. Finding ways to measure and express that. There are two full years of data available to us. Quite steady data.

Goals per game as a percentage of total team goals is a good number, @TigerFurious.

Here's a good measure, same age Tyrone Vickery, we weren't the most dominant forward line at that point.

Pretty much Vickery has him covered in practically every stat, some of that is impacted by his TOG %, but still pretty much every stat in Vickery's favour over JVR, thats the type you are comparing him to IMO.

Jacob Van Rooyen and Tyrone Vickery AFL Stats Comparison

Jacob Van Rooyen and Tyrone Vickery AFL Stats Comparison.

www.footywire.com

 

[Brodders17]

Here's a good measure, same age Tyrone Vickery, we weren't the most dominant forward line at that point.

Pretty much Vickery has him covered in practically every stat, some of that is impacted by his TOG %, but still pretty much every stat in Vickery's favour over JVR, thats the type you are comparing him to IMO.

Jacob Van Rooyen and Tyrone Vickery AFL Stats Comparison

Jacob Van Rooyen and Tyrone Vickery AFL Stats Comparison.

www.footywire.com

TV was tracking well at that stage. Then in 2012 he did his shoulder and, despite a few good patches, was never really the same after that.
He lost the confidence to raise his arms high if contract was coming.

 

[Scoop]

If there was public access to the deeper statistical measures that the clubs have you could measure players by sizes, positions and output at much deeper level.

 

[The_General]

If we're talking about key forward, goals per game, goal assists, marks I50, contested marks, contested one on one wins or win%
May wish to consider goals v time on ground, or if you can get the stats - how many times he's been a target for folks bringing the ball forward.

 

[Tiggy Train]

To get some controversy underway and eventually some clarity I'd like to put up Jacob Van Rooyen.

What is he? #1 forward? By no means. #2? How do his numbers look there? What numbers are we using? Is he #3 forward? Is he a ruck? No more than Shaun Grigg. Do his his ruck numbers make him special?

Who is Jacob Van Rooyen? How do we measure that? Can he improve? Measures? Is he getting worse? Measures.

I want JVR to be good at something but the numbers are steady and below average but for the spread. And then still below average.

Short. Game, but can't jump. Invested but not insightful. Are there numbers to that effect? Hey, maybe I'm misreading him.

Can we get a better one this draft? It may not be good for talls but I don't think JVR is much of a tall. We can do better. A battling J Whitlock is super mobile and can get space and then out the back. He can get air.

How do we rate JVR? We should ask Jason Taylor. He may know by now where he went wrong.

He's listed as a KPF in wheeloratings with a low KPF rating. He only averages 4 HO per game so we can say he's a young developing KPF. I like his progress and can see him being a future star, but not the elite levels of Riewoldt, Hawkins, Cameron and Lynch. He's ranked 40th out of 82 as a KPF and that's about right for his age and level of development.

AFL Player Statistics

AFL player statistics.

www.wheeloratings.com

AFL Player Profile

AFL Player Profile

www.wheeloratings.com

 

[Dyer'ere]

If we're talking about key forward, goals per game, goal assists, marks I50, contested marks, contested one on one wins or win%
May wish to consider goals v time on ground, or if you can get the stats - how many times he's been a target for folks bringing the ball forward.

I can't get the target numbers yet, T_G. Champion has them and classifies forwards as Key or general based on that number. But I can't dig it out yet.

 

[Dyer'ere]

Here are Key Forwards sorted by Goals per game 2024-