I thought it would be interesting to have a bit of a hypothetical.
Take a team (unnamed) from 2006, and think about whether or not this team will go up or down the ladder in 2007.
Some background:
* It has a predominantly young list, from whom it should expect considerable improvement in 2007, gaining more experience of AFL football.
* Its young players include an NAB rising star winner, and a runner up.
* A bad run of injuries in 2006 gave its young list more opportunities to play AFL football than would have been normal.
* In the process two young players emerged as possible future stars
* Of all the teams with predominantly young lists, it ended up highest on the ladder at the end of 2006.
* In 2006 it beat all the teams below it except one or two; and lost to all the teams above it except two, suggesting that its 2006 result reflected its true strength then, relative to other teams.
* Its 2006 retirements played little role that year, with the exception of one player who was serviceable.
* There is little sign that its few players over 30 years old will play a lesser role in 2007
* Apart from the draft, its recruitment at the end of the year yielded two middle-level AFL standard key position players
* It had a bad run of injuries in 2006, and gets back its best player for 2007 fully fit
* It has one of the better (one of the best?) coaches and coaching teams in the AFL
When I look at all this, I see a team that--on paper--is all upside, and ought to be looking at winning more games and moving up the ladder--unless, of course, it had an exceptionally bad year with injuries, etc. Or if it played well below itself.
Now this is an entirely fictional proposition, but wouldn't it be strange if all the expert commentators predicted a radical slide down the ladder for such a promising outfit!!
Take a team (unnamed) from 2006, and think about whether or not this team will go up or down the ladder in 2007.
Some background:
* It has a predominantly young list, from whom it should expect considerable improvement in 2007, gaining more experience of AFL football.
* Its young players include an NAB rising star winner, and a runner up.
* A bad run of injuries in 2006 gave its young list more opportunities to play AFL football than would have been normal.
* In the process two young players emerged as possible future stars
* Of all the teams with predominantly young lists, it ended up highest on the ladder at the end of 2006.
* In 2006 it beat all the teams below it except one or two; and lost to all the teams above it except two, suggesting that its 2006 result reflected its true strength then, relative to other teams.
* Its 2006 retirements played little role that year, with the exception of one player who was serviceable.
* There is little sign that its few players over 30 years old will play a lesser role in 2007
* Apart from the draft, its recruitment at the end of the year yielded two middle-level AFL standard key position players
* It had a bad run of injuries in 2006, and gets back its best player for 2007 fully fit
* It has one of the better (one of the best?) coaches and coaching teams in the AFL
When I look at all this, I see a team that--on paper--is all upside, and ought to be looking at winning more games and moving up the ladder--unless, of course, it had an exceptionally bad year with injuries, etc. Or if it played well below itself.
Now this is an entirely fictional proposition, but wouldn't it be strange if all the expert commentators predicted a radical slide down the ladder for such a promising outfit!!
