age and games played.

[tigertim]

Geezus, my heads spinning with all these facts and figures, most of which are irrelevent. Whoever wins the most games is the better team, regardless if they have more players in this age bracket or more players in that "games played" bracket.

This thread reminds me of footy commentators who di-sect the game and pick out obscure stats like" Richmond had more handball receives in the defensive 50m zone" or "Richmond had 16 tackles to 8 in the neutral part of the ground" to illustrate why Richmond won.

Sometimes it's just because one team was better than the other that they win, not because of obscure stats. Also a team will be better simply because it has better players, not based on age brackets.

I know I'm a simpleton but there's analysing and there's analysing for the sake of it.

 

[benny_furs]

That is a poor post by your standards Clawreo.

to me the psd is supposed to be the place you take retreads

Now isn't this is a 180

Since when have you advocated taking retreads in the PSD? Are you serious in saying we should be taking more Kingsley's and Knobel's and less White's and Gourdis'?

2008 only vickery fits that yrs age bracket

When typing the reply to this quote I think I realised how the RFC is getting a competitive edge to the competition......

Let's go back to basics. To win a flag, Terry Wallace has always stated you need a large, strong core group of players between 23-27 years of age.

Forget everything you believe for a second. The year is 2004. How do we build the largest group of 23-27 year olds in the competition by 2011? Do we take more kids in each draft than any other club (the Claw method)???

No. Reason being, at 18 you will end up with a high percentage of duds, that is the reality. A percentage of those 18yo's will mature late, a percentage will become disillusioned at their clubs, and a percentage will not get a fair chance to play some real footy for whatever reason.

So what is the most efficient process of building the largest group of 23-27yo's in the competition, I hear you asking.

How do we get ahead of our competition?

Terry Wallace says "easy". Every year, all 16 clubs focus on filling list needs and finding a few good kids. Every new year, it's a new draft, and they look to fill the next holes that emerge. In 2008, while all the other clubs have lost interest in the 2004/05/06 talent (and giggling at the shiny "new" talent on offer) the RFC has said "you haven't beaten us in those previous drafts yet... we're not done" and picks up the likes of Morton, Thomson, Hislop, etc, etc ,etc. We continue to add to the stockpile of talent in the same age bracket when all other clubs are spreading out their picks into an even spread of age throughout their lists.

Everyone essentially has the same amount of currency, but while everyone else spreads this currency out over a 12 year age gap, we are focusing ours on a single group of about 4 years with only half a thought for other brackets.

The result?

In 2011 we WILL have the biggest group of 23-27 year olds by a considerable margin, especially if we keep trading for players from the 04-08 drafts.

This appears to have been Terry's plan all along. This is the premiership clock theory put into practice at it's extreme. We aren't building for a sustained, even-spread of age in different brackets (which will ensure we're a middle of the road team who makes finals every second year never a contender). No, sustained success in the top 4 is not possible, and we are not looking for sustained 9th-5th finishes.

We keep boosting the same age brackets so we can have success in waves. I believe West Coast are now doing exactly the same thing.




Simply put, this is our theory:

Instead of having a 17 gun, 21yo gun, 25yo gun and a 29yo gun........ we want to have a 23 yo gun, 24yo gun, 25yo gun and a 26yo gun.

Claw's theory of taking a massive batch of kids every year has a high failure rate. Terry's theory of taking a medium batch every year and continuing to add to this batch in future years (hence drafting never really stops) has a higher success rate for the same currency.

While Essendon and Carlton aim to have an even spread of players from 18-32, they base their clubs around a fear of finishing bottom 4. Richmond are aiming to have a huge batch in the one bracket who will strongly contend for multiple flags before we have our turn at the bottom.

The difference is; next time we're near the bottom, it will be cyclical, and we will already have the processes in place to quickly rebound.

 

[TigerMasochist]

I know I'm a simpleton but there's analysing and there's analysing for the sake of it.

Think you might have left out a hyphen tigertim.
Pretty sure it's anal - ysing.
It's described in my thesaurus as an outpouring of diarrhoea by x spurts in an attempt to establish their credentials as to having an understanding of the subject matter.
Anal - ysing can be attributed to any and all forms of sport but is believed to have evolved from American sports such as gridiron and baseball.
The Septic Tanks are renowned as masters at taking their sports anal - ysing to the Nth degree.

 

[ozmadman]

I understand that Claw is keen to keep this focussed purely on age v games played, but I don't understand why. The stat on its own appears meaningless to me. A football team is made up of people, and people are all different. Take Tucky - discarded and looked like he may never make it in the AFL. Richmond throws him a lifeline and he proves to give an excellent return on that investment. If you look at his age v games played, it might not look as good as you might like. But so what?
Sorry Claw, I just can't see the relevance of the stat.

 

[the claw]

I understand that Claw is keen to keep this focussed purely on age v games played, but I don't understand why. The stat on its own appears meaningless to me. A football team is made up of people, and people are all different. Take Tucky - discarded and looked like he may never make it in the AFL. Richmond throws him a lifeline and he proves to give an excellent return on that investment. If you look at his age v games played, it might not look as good as you might like. But so what?
Sorry Claw, I just can't see the relevance of the stat.

lets put it this way in the main i think quality of players on a teams list is the be all end all.if you dont have the cattle you cant win.
i bought this thread up because so many were saying we were young and inexperienced, and while i agree we are, even though the situation is improving theres plenty of other sides who are in the same boat. i used carlton as an example because of what i thought were obvious similarities between the two clubs situations and their overall performances for the last 7 yrs.

i go out of my way to challenge peoples conceptions on this site i will admit i have had some of mine changed when challenging people.

 

[GoodOne]

i go out of my way to challenge peoples conceptions on this site

Oh you're a gynaecologist now. Multi talented Im impressed

 

[TigerMasochist]

Oh you're a gynaecologist now. Multi talented Im impressed

Could be worse, he might have been a proctologist. Claws been known to be a pain in the arse at times ;D.
Sorry Claw, :-* :angel: couldn't help myself >.

 

[pahoffm]

Actually, Claw has hit the mark on the head again.

One of my projects over the last year or so, in analysing premiership teams was to see what relationship there was to age & games played.

Although I can't release the results of the findings, I can say that there is a relationship with certain positions.

Some of you may recall, either last year or early this season, when I posted on how the current Bulldog defense was built on 4 years of playing footy together. The thrashings that defence got in its first 50 games under Rohde, a few years ago, have served them well, now that those same players are in excess of 100 games.

 

[the claw]

Could be worse, he might have been a proctologist. Claws been known to be a pain in the arse at times ;D.
Sorry Claw, :-* :angel: couldn't help myself >.

tough job pulling peoples heads out of their arse.

 

[tigertim]

Actually, Claw has hit the mark on the head again.

One of my projects over the last year or so, in analysing premiership teams was to see what relationship there was to age & games played.

Although I can't release the results of the findings, I can say that there is a relationship with certain positions.
Some of you may recall, either last year or early this season, when I posted on how the current Bulldog defense was built on 4 years of playing footy together. The thrashings that defence got in its first 50 games under Rohde, a few years ago, have served them well, now that those same players are in excess of 100 games.

Pray tell Phant, why can't you release the findings?

 

[IanG]

Pray tell Phant, why can't you release the findings?

One would guess that it because he is doing it for the club.

 

[TigerMasochist]

tough job pulling peoples heads out of their arse.

Heh! That tight little ringvalve likes to hook up under the nose and around the ears.
Keep heavin on 'em Claw ya may save one yet.

 

[tigerbyte]

It’s not just a matter of age either – ‘games played’ is also a useful stat for analysis.

If we say that the current crop of regulars average 20 games and 1 final a season for 09/10 and 20 games for 2011 – and the non-regulars 15 games a season and no finals – what will our experience level be like come finals time in 2011? Assuming Richo, Johnno, Jbo, Simmo and Cousins are all retired – a team could look like this – with total games played and finals for RFC in brackets.

Newy 193 (2) mcg 77 thursty 100 (2)
moore 106 (2) schulz 127 (2) macca 196 (2)
Bling 135(2) Thomson 73 cotchin 75 (2)
Edwards 92 (2) jack 86 (2) morton 89 (2)
Connors 53 post 45 putt 45
Vickery 45 lids 144(2) axel 130 (2)
Jackson 92 Rance 45 white 83 tuck 151 (2)


Average games: (2180) = 99
Average finals: (26) = 1.2


These figures indicate a lack of real experience in the key positions and ruck. On-ballers and flankers will be at their peaks.

It’s pretty obvious then that this team will be much better equipped in terms of experience (and age) to advance into the latter stages of the finals in 2012 and beyond.