Arbitrage

[Col.E.Kurtz]

Arbitrage is what every investor or gambler dream about, in layman’s terms it means no matter the result of the game you can’t lose.

Richmond supporters have for the last 10 weeks been able to achieve emotional arbitrage by betting on the team playing Carlton. Carlton wins, we get the number 1 pick so Tigers supporters are happy, the other team wins, the you win the bet, so either way you can’t lose.

Such is my confidence in the Carlton’s ability to manufacture defeat I have been betting by far the largest sums of my life on single games no matter how long the odds. The fix is in, the question is do we get upset by it or do we profit from it?

Dealing with the sheer arrogance and ludicrousness of head of the AFL trying to convince you that teams aren't tanking and the priority pick systems isn't eating the soul of the game is much easier when you are profiting from it. But I would still rather have the No.1 pick than the cash.

 

[hopper]

Clever move, colonel. Wish I had your foresight and healthy pessimism.

 

[LeeToRainesToRoach]

Good luck to you, Colonel.

Personally I have an aversion to taking long odds-on. There was a recent story about a punter who'd built up a tidy profit with a betting agency by wagering against both Carlton and Richmond each round. The walls came crashing in when we beat Collingwood, to the tune of $20K.

Melbourne opened at $1.25 this week. The bookies are screaming out what Demetriou refuses to acknowledge.

 

[Col.E.Kurtz]

There was a recent story about a punter who'd built up a tidy profit with a betting agency by wagering against both Carlton and Richmond each round. The walls came crashing in when we beat Collingwood, to the tune of $20K.

Melbourne opened at $1.25 this week. The bookies are screaming out what Demetriou refuses to acknowledge.

I thought that was clever by the bookie to spread that story. I would never bet against the Tigers anyway but difference was the Tigers had no incentive to lose against the Pies because at the time we could win two more games without losing a pick. I haven’t been betting against Melbourne either because their incentive to lose isn’t as strong as Carlton’s.

I hate this situation though, I hate barracking for Carton to win. I hate that 1/3 of people voting on this site in a poll want us to lose on the weekend and I hate they may be right. This is terrible for the soul of the game.

Melbourne opened at $1.25 this week. The bookies are screaming out what Demetriou refuses to acknowledge.

The book opened later than all the other games on centrebet. Congrats to the AFL for engineering games with as much credibility as a Don King fight.

 

[Tigers of Old]

So how much are you putting on the Blues this week Colonel?

 

[Col.E.Kurtz]

So how much are you putting on the Blues this week Colonel?

Not so much that I wouldn't still prefer to have the no.1 pick.

 

[LeeToRainesToRoach]

I hate this situation though, I hate barracking for Carton to win. I hate that 1/3 of people voting on this site in a poll want us to lose on the weekend and I hate they may be right. This is terrible for the soul of the game.

The book opened later than all the other games on centrebet. Congrats to the AFL for engineering games with as much credibility as a Don King fight.

Agree. That it's reached such a farcical point and the AFL still refuses to concede there's a problem, is sad.