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China
- Thread starter Tigers of Old
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Ok, I'll play the contrarian here, I have never really had a strong position on Taiwan (well, except that I found it completely ridiculous that somehow Taiwan was recognised as China until 1971 and held the permanent Security Council seat with the veto). I certainly lean towards Taiwan maintaining its independence, although it does need to be remembered that Taiwan is barely recognised by any countries and was part of China until Japanese rule from the late 19th century. When the UN General Assembly changed their recognition of China from the Republic of China (in 1945 all of China, mainland and Taiwan, but after 1949 only Taiwan) to The People's Republic of China (who had won the Civil War and had control of mainland China) the UN did not recognise any separation between the mainland and Taiwan. Also, Taiwan was a one-party military dictatorship run by those who fled the mainland until the late 1980s.
Let's attempt to look at this from the Chinese perspective.
Ok, so, how about a scenario we can all understand.
It is 1942, the war is not going well. The Japanese have run through PNG and are invading Australia. Japan invades successfully and occupies Australia until the end of WWII. Following the war and Australia regaining it's independence, there is a struggle within Australia. 2 main factions fight out a battle for control, one faction wins this battle but is weakened by the battle and allows the other faction to flee to Tasmania where military leaders set up their own government which over time morphs into a more democratic regime. The faction in control of the mainland cannot immediately attempt to reclaim Tasmania by force, but they never concede that Tasmania is now an independent country and continue to maintain that it is part of Australia.
Should we consider Tasmania to be an independent country or should it be re-united with Australia?
That is how the Chinese would view Taiwan and why you have to understand what their motivation is, especially if you want to avoid a conflict over Taiwan. For the Chinese, Taiwan was occupied by Japan for about 50 years and then taken over by the losing side in a civil war. For China, not only is Taiwan part of China, it is shameful that it is not currently integrated into China.
As for the USA, they will do all sorts of things to maintain their status as the global hegemon. Causing trouble for your main rival, its a pretty tried and true strategy, and they know that China are very sensitive about Taiwan. I don't think the USA would provoke a war, but they certainly are willing to make trouble for China and it wouldn't be the first time a miscalculation led to war. Ultimately I reckon the USA wants to maintain its pre-eminent global position and at the same time profit from economic growth in Asia. While a war would make trouble for China it would also make a mess of the opportunities for profit the USA sees in Asia. Hence, I can't see that the USA would push China towards a war over Taiwan, although I do reckon they are willing to push China pretty close to invading Taiwan because that would keep China busy in their own back yard.
Not simple, and before someone here starts saying I am just extolling the virtues of throwing power around, this sort of crap is precisely the reason I'm an anarchist.
DS
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Much like your position on Ukraine then. What the Taiwanese or Ukrainians want doesn't matter, it all goes back to weird interpretations of history and "statecraft".
And you claim to be an anarchist.
Would depend on what Tasmanians would want. Same for Taiwan, if they want to be independent of mainland China then that should be respected and it recognised as a separate country.
Which Taiwanese are you talking about? Those who arrived after the civil war in China and took over or those who were there earlier?
Of course, you can cheerfully ignore the Chinese perspective on this and take the comic book goodie v baddie simplistic view of the situation, but that is your choice. I would suggest voting for Peter Dutton in that case as his analysis is similarly simplistic.
Do you seriously think we should just ignore how the Chinese view the situation with Taiwan, really?
Just as an aside, anarchists tend to analyse with a fair amount of emphasis on power imbalances, which is why you do see anarchists, like Noam Chomsky, emphasising who holds power and what they are likely to do with it. Of course, we always end up having to explain that analysis does not equate to support for a particular point of view, but that seems to be our lot in life as some prefer to avoid analysis. I can only assume it is just too much bother or it goes over their heads.
DS
Of course, you can cheerfully ignore the Chinese perspective on this and take the comic book goodie v baddie simplistic view of the situation, but that is your choice. I would suggest voting for Peter Dutton in that case as his analysis is similarly simplistic.
Do you seriously think we should just ignore how the Chinese view the situation with Taiwan, really?
Just as an aside, anarchists tend to analyse with a fair amount of emphasis on power imbalances, which is why you do see anarchists, like Noam Chomsky, emphasising who holds power and what they are likely to do with it. Of course, we always end up having to explain that analysis does not equate to support for a particular point of view, but that seems to be our lot in life as some prefer to avoid analysis. I can only assume it is just too much bother or it goes over their heads.
DS
I'm talking about the Taiwanese people right now. The ones that are alive and here right now, today. The Taiwanese that are here on the planet right now, and have a right to democracy and self-determination now, today, and into the future. Which Taiwanese do you think we should focus on? The long dead?
"We owe respect to the living. To the dead, we owe only the truth".
Voltaire
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Yes. But the dead in this case are many. China has a pretty good case in some regards.
Shanghai massacre - Wikipedia
Yes. But the dead in this case are many. China has a pretty good case in some regards.
Shanghai massacre - Wikipedia
en.wikipedia.org
I agree, the perpetrators of the 1927 Shanghai massacre should be brought to justice as soon as possible.
I get your point. You need to keep in mind that there are humans involved in all this right.
The KMT also has a case that they remain the legitimate rulers of mainland ChinaYes. But the dead in this case are many. China has a pretty good case in some regards.
Shanghai massacre - Wikipedia
Right, which is why I'm all for rights of the humans LIVING in Taiwan NOW to have the right to choose their own future, either as part of China or as an independent and free democratic state. Perhaps you should address this concern to DavidSS who still has not mentioned the rights of either the Taiwanese people living now or the Ukranian people living now to self-determination. These are the humans I'm most concerned with.
To be honest I don't give a *smile* what high level political cadres in the CCP want. They are humans too but the rights of millions of free Taiwanese people alive today are far more important than dying wish of Mao Zedong and the CCP's desire to have the "two jewels" of HK and Taiwan integrated back into the Chinese state.
If you are in any doubt on this you could ask the citizens of Hong Kong about how that reintegration process is going.
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Aah, ok, I see. The opinions of the high ranking officials in the CCP are irrelevant?
Exactly what planet do you live on?
So, your advice is to ignore that the rising superpower next door to Taiwan continues to claim Taiwan as part of their country, and most of the world does not actually disagree given they don't recognise Taiwan as a separate country.
This is not a factor we need to take any notice of?
Sure, ignoring reality is precisely how we get into situations such as Russia invading Ukraine.
Personally I reckon preventing wars is more important than mounting your high horse and spouting motherhood statements while you block out the realities of the situation.
And, before some moron now claims I support a Chinese Invasion of Taiwan - I don't, I just reckon you have a much better chance of avoiding that if you actually have the maturity and intelligence to consider what China's point of view is because it gives you a much better chance of preventing an invasion.
DS
Exactly what planet do you live on?
So, your advice is to ignore that the rising superpower next door to Taiwan continues to claim Taiwan as part of their country, and most of the world does not actually disagree given they don't recognise Taiwan as a separate country.
This is not a factor we need to take any notice of?
Sure, ignoring reality is precisely how we get into situations such as Russia invading Ukraine.
Personally I reckon preventing wars is more important than mounting your high horse and spouting motherhood statements while you block out the realities of the situation.
And, before some moron now claims I support a Chinese Invasion of Taiwan - I don't, I just reckon you have a much better chance of avoiding that if you actually have the maturity and intelligence to consider what China's point of view is because it gives you a much better chance of preventing an invasion.
DS
I really feel for the Chinese people, not just due to the inhumane lockdowns in Shanghai and elsewhere, but generally speaking having to endure such a repressive regime.
This video went viral in China, but seconds after it's uploaded, it's taken down. The Chinese people are getting more creative when they upload this video, disguising it, changing the title, uploading it upside down etc. to try to thwart the censors. There are millions of copies around and they just keep on uploading it only for it to be taken down within seconds.
This video went viral in China, but seconds after it's uploaded, it's taken down. The Chinese people are getting more creative when they upload this video, disguising it, changing the title, uploading it upside down etc. to try to thwart the censors. There are millions of copies around and they just keep on uploading it only for it to be taken down within seconds.
I remember hearing a talk by a Chinese disident shortly after the events of Tainanmin Square in 1989. One of the things that survivors of Mao's Cultural Revolution learnt was that you never put any dissent in writing, because for sure at some point in the future it will be used against you. And this has already happened many many times in China in the age of the internet - be assured the CCP has records of everything you have ever said or filmed or done online. Social media provides some level of anonymity if you know what you are doing - but it's interesting to see how these information wars are happening in modern China now. I guess at a certain point it becomes impossible - or at least very difficult - to censor/punish people for uploading videos or other content like this.
One of the hot topics on chinese social media recently is the plight of workers in the gig economy - the CCP is tolerating a certain amount of organisation and campaigning by delivery drivers, but some of them are being chucked in prison for "organising protests" or other things that the CCP considers undesirable.
I think David's point is self-determination is all good unless you are trying to self-determine away from a superpower - old or rising. Then you have to suck it up and realise you can't self determine. And everyone else has to realise it to. Because you should always defer to the bully.
Aah, the rights of the people living in the Republic of China today are what is important you say? Ok, now, lets be clear about this, the Republic of China, according to their own constitution, includes all of the mainland, the capital is Nanjing and the number plates define Taiwan as one province. The constitution also lays claim to the mainland. Taiwan does not even define itself as a separate country to China.
If the Republic of China government, currently located in the temporary capital of Taipei, attempted to change the constitution to formally separate from the rest of China (The People's Republic) then it would very likely lead to the People's Republic invading the Republic. Even the US knows this as they stopped the ruling party in Taiwan from changing the constitution earlier in the 2000s because it would provoke a war.
But let's look at this from a strategic point of view.
Your proposed strategy is to invoke an act of self-determination on the part of the Republic of China, which everyone knows will provoke the People's Republic to invade. On this there is little or no disagreement. In terms of the right to self determination, the Taiwanese know full well that the best course of action is to leave the status quo and avoid war. War has this tendency you seem to miss that it tramples all over self determination. In fact, the current strategy has worked to avoid those living in Taiwan from being invaded, killed and having their cities leveled. It's all well and good to sit comfortably thousands of miles away in Southern Australia and spout platitudes about self-determination, its not you who will be in the firing line. In any case, the Republic of China is going along quite well and I reckon they would really prefer not to have a confrontation with the People's Republic. Yes, they're kicking the can down the road along with everyone else, but it sure beats getting invaded, they retain far more self-determination if they can continue this than if they provoke China.
Not dissimilar to Ukraine really. Your suggested strategy is to use small countries to provoke large nearby military powers, in order to further geopolitical goals, and then wash your hands of the outcomes. Unless your strategy is to provoke the large military power (be it Russia or China) and back it up with serious military intervention which would likely lead to a nuclear confrontation, or at the very least a confrontation between massively armed nuclear powers, then your proposed strategy is a recipe for war and possible nuclear war.
Your high horse is a nice place to be, but you are not thinking through the very likely outcomes of such a strategy.
If you really want to further limit the self determination of those who live in the Republic of China, then provoke the People's Republic.
None of us like this but it is the way the world works at the moment and provoking nasty wars is no solution.
DS
If the Republic of China government, currently located in the temporary capital of Taipei, attempted to change the constitution to formally separate from the rest of China (The People's Republic) then it would very likely lead to the People's Republic invading the Republic. Even the US knows this as they stopped the ruling party in Taiwan from changing the constitution earlier in the 2000s because it would provoke a war.
But let's look at this from a strategic point of view.
Your proposed strategy is to invoke an act of self-determination on the part of the Republic of China, which everyone knows will provoke the People's Republic to invade. On this there is little or no disagreement. In terms of the right to self determination, the Taiwanese know full well that the best course of action is to leave the status quo and avoid war. War has this tendency you seem to miss that it tramples all over self determination. In fact, the current strategy has worked to avoid those living in Taiwan from being invaded, killed and having their cities leveled. It's all well and good to sit comfortably thousands of miles away in Southern Australia and spout platitudes about self-determination, its not you who will be in the firing line. In any case, the Republic of China is going along quite well and I reckon they would really prefer not to have a confrontation with the People's Republic. Yes, they're kicking the can down the road along with everyone else, but it sure beats getting invaded, they retain far more self-determination if they can continue this than if they provoke China.
Not dissimilar to Ukraine really. Your suggested strategy is to use small countries to provoke large nearby military powers, in order to further geopolitical goals, and then wash your hands of the outcomes. Unless your strategy is to provoke the large military power (be it Russia or China) and back it up with serious military intervention which would likely lead to a nuclear confrontation, or at the very least a confrontation between massively armed nuclear powers, then your proposed strategy is a recipe for war and possible nuclear war.
Your high horse is a nice place to be, but you are not thinking through the very likely outcomes of such a strategy.
If you really want to further limit the self determination of those who live in the Republic of China, then provoke the People's Republic.
None of us like this but it is the way the world works at the moment and provoking nasty wars is no solution.
DS
Taiwan is not deferring to the bully, they are choosing to co-exist with the bully as opposed to being left in a bloody mess behind the shelter shed after provoking the bully. Their big friend has clearly stated they won't come to the rescue if the bully attacks.
Your suggestion is?
DS
Don't for a second think the authorities in China aren't able to track who has uploaded/copied the video. That's not just in China either.
