Coronavirus | PUNT ROAD END | Richmond Tigers Forum
  • IMPORTANT // Please look after your loved ones, yourself and be kind to others. If you are feeling that the world is too hard to handle there is always help - I implore you not to hesitate in contacting one of these wonderful organisations Lifeline and Beyond Blue ... and I'm sure reaching out to our PRE community we will find a way to help. T.

Coronavirus

Baloo

Delisted Free Agent
Nov 8, 2005
44,115
18,926
Let's hope it's the variant that we've been waiting for. Christ knows after 2 years we need some good news regarding this mother *smile* of a virus.
 
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TigerForce

Tiger Legend
Apr 26, 2004
70,740
21,657
57
Let's hope it's the variant that we've been waiting for. Christ knows after 2 years we need some good news regarding this mother *smile* of a virus.
It's in the papers now but what do they actually mean by this? Assumption that no other is worse than Delta?
 

RoarEmotion

Tiger Champion
Aug 20, 2005
4,944
6,454
It's in the papers now but what do they actually mean by this? Assumption that no other is worse than Delta?
The evolution pathway is increased virulence but less death.

As a virus….

If you kill the host too quickly you become extinct before you can spread.

If you don’t spread quickly then the other virus that spreads more quickly (and doesn’t kill the host) wins.

It’s a bit like humans and global warming.
 
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eZyT

Tiger Legend
Jun 28, 2019
21,434
25,779
Not exactly comforting that Omicron is growing already in NSW. It’ll be here in no time.

they're quarantining .... at home.

when some eyeball *smile* exploding ebola type thing does emerge out of some jungle,

we'll all be dead in a week.

you'll be able to smell it from outer space
 
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Coburgtiger

Tiger Champion
May 7, 2012
4,955
6,939
I'm no epidemiologist but what was said to me is that if the African countries where Omicron started had vaccination rates of 80-90% there would have been far less COVID circulating and the chances of a mutation are reduced.

It might seem counter intuitive, but selective pressures reduce variation. Always.

Vaccination is a selective pressure which acts on the virus. It will reduce the amount of variation that exists.

It's important to understand that selective pressures (in this case the vaccine) don't cause or prevent mutations. Mutations are random events that, in the absence of a mutagen (a vaccine is not a mutagen) occur at a relatively consistent background rate. Vaccines will reduce the overall number of viral particles globally, and will reduce some variants (which exist as a result of mutations) at a higher proportion than others. This means that the vaccination program will not cause or reduce mutations, but will reduce overall numbers, and thus increase the proportion of certain variants.

It is also true that an overall lower amount of viral replication (courtesy of vaccination) will reduce the opportunity for mutations to occur (as they almost always occur during replication), reducing the probability of a random mutation arising that may be beneficial.
 
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RoarEmotion

Tiger Champion
Aug 20, 2005
4,944
6,454
It might seem counter intuitive, but selective pressures reduce variation. Always.

Vaccination is a selective pressure which acts on the virus. It will reduce the amount of variation that exists.

It's important to understand that selective pressures (in this case the vaccine) don't cause or prevent mutations. Mutations are random events that, in the absence of a mutagen (a vaccine is not a mutagen) occur at a relatively consistent background rate. Vaccines will reduce the overall number of viral particles globally, and will reduce some variants (which exist as a result of mutations) at a higher proportion than others. This means that the vaccination program will not cause or reduce mutations, but will reduce overall numbers, and thus increase the proportion of certain variants.

It is also true that an overall lower amount of viral replication (courtesy of vaccination) will reduce the opportunity for mutations to occur (as they almost always occur during replication), reducing the probability of a random mutation arising that may be beneficial.

Thanks coburg - this makes sense.

My one question - If you look at it over a longer time period - say a decade - such that everyone gets Covid haven’t you had the same amount of replications albeit spread out over a longer time frame? So all vaccination does is prolong the time for mutations to occur? (Accepting that the probability remains unchanged)
 

AngryAnt

Tiger Legend
Nov 25, 2004
27,017
14,793
Meanwhile some f'wit rammed a nurse with his car at a vax station in Collingwood. He's been apprehended.
 
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Coburgtiger

Tiger Champion
May 7, 2012
4,955
6,939
Thanks coburg - this makes sense.

My one question - If you look at it over a longer time period - say a decade - such that everyone gets Covid haven’t you had the same amount of replications albeit spread out over a longer time frame? So all vaccination does is prolong the time for mutations to occur? (Accepting that the probability remains unchanged)
Assuming that you would still get the same number of replications, yes. But this is unlikely given that those who are vaccinated and those who are reinfected will fight off the virus more quickly and therefore the virus will replicate fewer times.

I think it's also worth remembering that the point of vaccination isn't to reduce the incidence of mutations happening or variations arising.

In my opinion, it's missing the point to say that more people vaccinated is a good thing for reducing the likelihood of variants developing.

We want variants developing, because we want this thing to attenuate.

What we don't want is to select for variants which escape the protection offered by the current vaccines.

This is still unlikely to happen given that the vaccines prime the immune system to target a highly conserved and functionally critical part of the virus.

However, if a mutation (or several) were to arise which caused the virus to escape the protection offered by vaccines, it would be a massive selective advantage, and it would be vaccine protection which would drive that selection.
 
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Harry

Tiger Legend
Mar 2, 2003
24,451
11,851
So a kid in my sons year level tests positive and the whole year level is sent home and not allowed back unless they show a negative test result. A self test from the chemist won't do. Been sitting in the car now with him waiting for a test for over 2 hours. Complete overkill. With 95% Vax rate they should scrap this or put in place quicker ways to test. All I'm seeing is people covered head to toe in PPE with a clip board taking notes. No wonder people don't get tested. Funking joke.
 
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eZyT

Tiger Legend
Jun 28, 2019
21,434
25,779
Only in Australia,

can you tear the arse out of your jeans going over the fence,

at the Centre for National Resilience :rotfl1

Quarantine escapees in NT: The trio allegedly jumped the fence at the centre for national resilience just before 4.40am, Northern Territory police said earlier.
 
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Jul 26, 2004
78,245
38,255
www.redbubble.com
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eZyT

Tiger Legend
Jun 28, 2019
21,434
25,779
Darwin Award nominee

and another


His twin sister said

He made a bad decision. We all make bad decisions all the time. And he paid the ultimate price for it. Which is so unfair.

without dancing on anyones grave, I'd dispute the 'so unfair' notion

father of 8 getting killed coming to the aid of woman in domestic dispute? UNFAIR

anti-vaxer dies of Covid? NOT UNFAIR
 
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spook

Kick the f*ckin' goal
Jun 18, 2007
21,917
26,430
Melbourne
How bad is this? Bloke doing he damndest to keep his state safe & some anti-vax nutbag threatens to kill his son. :oops:

The Fixated Persons Unit will be right over once they've finished failing to intimidate youtube comedians out of being mean to corrupt politicians.
 
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Sintiger

Tiger Legend
Aug 11, 2010
18,204
17,603
Camberwell
So a kid in my sons year level tests positive and the whole year level is sent home and not allowed back unless they show a negative test result. A self test from the chemist won't do. Been sitting in the car now with him waiting for a test for over 2 hours. Complete overkill. With 95% Vax rate they should scrap this or put in place quicker ways to test. All I'm seeing is people covered head to toe in PPE with a clip board taking notes. No wonder people don't get tested. Funking joke.
The Rapid Antigen Tests are nowhere near as accurate as a PCR tests
PCR tests require analysis in a Pathology lab
There are many testing sites around Melbourne with waits far less then 2 hours
The people in the testing clinic have a right to stay safe in PPE
 
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Harry

Tiger Legend
Mar 2, 2003
24,451
11,851
The Rapid Antigen Tests are nowhere near as accurate as a PCR tests
PCR tests require analysis in a Pathology lab
There are many testing sites around Melbourne with waits far less then 2 hours
The people in the testing clinic have a right to stay safe in PPE
The whole requirement to get tested if you've been near an exposure site is overkill. We're nearly at 100% double vaxxed and forcing people to wait 3 hours to get tested is ridiculous. If you're double vaxxed and are still scared don't leave your house.
 
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Brodders17

Tiger Legend
Mar 21, 2008
17,664
11,707
The whole requirement to get tested if you've been near an exposure site is overkill. We're nearly at 100% double vaxxed and forcing people to wait 3 hours to get tested is ridiculous. If you're double vaxxed and are still scared don't leave your house.
Where did you wait 3 hours?
Last person i know who got tested in Melb waited about 5 minutes.

There was an article recently stating most of the current "clusters" are in schools. That is why the rules around school infections remain stringent.