Coronavirus

[pete and tys]

Covid is tragic and causing death and misery...it is a worldwide pandemic like many before it.
This outcome unfortunately is difficult to lessen.
We have no choice but to live a life and move on, trying to minimise the misery.
It will peak soon and with luck nothing more sinister will follow for a while.

If everyone got fully vaccinated , plus boosters, we would be better off, but still have a pandemic and misery to deal with.

 

[pete and tys]

If someone dies after contracting covid, who wouldn't have died otherwise (and potentially lived for many more years) then they are dying "from" covid. I don't care how old or infirm they are or whether or not they had preexisting comorbidities, they're not necessarily going to fall off the perch tomorrow. But contracting this virus might just push them over the edge.

Using the word "with" is a method to ease the collective guilt on the rest of society for ignoring those less fortunate than us. These people dying from covid are still people with loved ones.

But considering the vast amounts of inequality throughout the world and the lack of global action on it, I suppose this is normal human behaviour to ignore those less fortunate than us. It's just depressing seeing it play out in Australia.

100% agree it is tragic. But death will come to us all, sooner when you are very aged and frail. Covid is yet another hurdle that will hasten the loss of some.
Horrible, but it is a world wide serious pandemic that can not be avoided. It is a natural cycle in life and death unfortunately.
Just pointing out , once again, that figures and statistics can be very misleading and distort.

 

[TT33]

It's not only the elderly that are dying FROM the Omicron version of Covid, many younger people are dying FROM it who wouldn't have died if they didn't catch the virus.

The "let it rip" theory was always going to be fraught with danger.

 

[Baloo]

We have previously been told by the govt/ health department that the majority of people who die while covid positive, die with covid, not of covid.
Think on this... some guesstimated figures only.
Say 1000 Victorians die a day normally.
Say 1 in 50 Victoria's is covid infected at any one time.
That means 20 people each day will be recorded as dying with Covid.

Do you have any solid numbers for this? Or just guestimating?

 

[pete and tys]

If someone dies after contracting covid, who wouldn't have died otherwise (and potentially lived for many more years) then they are dying "from" covid. I don't care how old or infirm they are or whether or not they had preexisting comorbidities, they're not necessarily going to fall off the perch tomorrow. But contracting this virus might just push them over the edge.

Using the word "with" is a method to ease the collective guilt on the rest of society for ignoring those less fortunate than us. These people dying from covid are still people with loved ones.

But considering the vast amounts of inequality throughout the world and the lack of global action on it, I suppose this is normal human behaviour to ignore those less fortunate than us. It's just depressing seeing it play out in Australia.

Just on this BT...aged and frail people , fully vaccinated are dying. What else can be done?
They are the victims of nature. Very sad, but so is every death, expected or not.
The aged and frail can't be locked up in isolation indefinitely...nor can the rest of us.
We drive the roads daily and thousands of us die.
We smoke, sun bake, take drugs, etc etc....it is unfortunately a fact of human life and frailty.

 

[pete and tys]

Do you have any solid numbers for this? Or just guestimating?

Pure gestimation...but you can see the point about the figures I am making.

 

[Tigers of Old]

The "let it rip" theory was always going to be fraught with danger.

Especially after such a small sample size of South Africa.
That Perrotet (backed by Morrison) jumped in head first before checking the depth of the pool was reckless in the extreme & is the number 1 reason we are here. Criminal negligence.

 

[Leysy Days]

Would love to know/see more detail on the Covid numbers.

i.e. The frustrating thing around them is the hospitalisation, deaths etc don't differentiate between those that occur because of Covid or they would be there anyway and have Covid. Two seperate things.

Especially now that it is so widespread and symptoms mild in a lot of cases i.e. know someone who went in with a broken bone and tested positive as was asymptomatic.

Tasmania were reporting on them initially and the because number was a lot less. Think that has stopped. Maybe due to grey in some cases.

 

[pete and tys]

It's not only the elderly that are dying FROM the Omicron version of Covid, many younger people are dying FROM it who wouldn't have died if they didn't catch the virus.

The "let it rip" theory was always going to be fraught with danger.

Yes, the young and frail in the vast majority.
Not from letting it rip...from an infectious pandemic that cannot be stopped. Each and every Australian will contact covid, vaccinated or not, let it rip or not. Makes no difference, other that hospital stress.

 

[Baloo]

Pure gestimation...but you can see the point about the figures I am making.

Need to bear in mind that the very vast majority of people dying are very aged with co morbidities.

Really, to let people know your first statement is just a guestimation and not backed with any data, you need to end that line with "FACT!".

 

[DavidSSS]

Good article on the ABC app today about the effectiveness of vaccines and boosters.

There is a lot of talk about whether the vaccines and the boosters stop infections. But, the infection numbers at the moment are very high, and while they may come down soon, the virus is clearly loose (that's what let it rip does). However, the biggest issue we currently face is the overloading of the health system and here the vaccines are proving very effective, from the ABC article:

Ten weeks after a booster dose, protection against symptomatic disease dropped to 45-50 per cent. Protection against hospitalisation remained higher at 83 per cent.

That's pretty damned good!

Full article: https://www.abc.net.au/news/health/...cination-pfizer-moderna-astrazeneca/100763758

DS

 

[mrposhman]

If someone dies after contracting covid, who wouldn't have died otherwise (and potentially lived for many more years) then they are dying "from" covid. I don't care how old or infirm they are or whether or not they had preexisting comorbidities, they're not necessarily going to fall off the perch tomorrow. But contracting this virus might just push them over the edge.

Using the word "with" is a method to ease the collective guilt on the rest of society for ignoring those less fortunate than us. These people dying from covid are still people with loved ones.

But considering the vast amounts of inequality throughout the world and the lack of global action on it, I suppose this is normal human behaviour to ignore those less fortunate than us. It's just depressing seeing it play out in Australia.

I agree with all of this, but I also think we need the media to actually do their job. Reporting purely Covid deaths is only portraying one side of the story. Reporting excess deaths is a better measure to identify how Covid is affecting the mortality rate. If Covid is merely replacing deaths from other sources then not as major, I suspect the mortality rate is higher than normal, but how high? We don't know, as the media (as they have through this whole pandemic) just seem purely focused on spreading panic.

 

[BT Tiger]

Just on this BT...aged and frail people , fully vaccinated are dying. What else can be done?
They are the victims of nature. Very sad, but so is every death, expected or not.
The aged and frail can't be locked up in isolation indefinitely...nor can the rest of us.
We drive the roads daily and thousands of us die.
We smoke, sun bake, take drugs, etc etc....it is unfortunately a fact of human life and frailty.

I understand your point but the fact is that people are choosing to take matters into their own hands, staying at home and avoid public places shows that in general we're not interested in catching the virus and getting sick, let alone putting our loved ones at risk.

While there might be the odd story of these crazy "Covid parties", the financial data reflects the majority sentiment, and that is to avoid catching this virus at the expense of business. Funny how we don't hear much from the gym owners and restauranteurs who were so desperate to open back up again. Isn't this what they all wanted?

No lockdown has been called in Victoria. But one has 'emerged organically'

As a wave of Omicron infections wreaks havoc across workplaces and the healthcare system, the data suggests many Victorians are voting with their feet and staying close to home.

www.abc.net.au

There are things that our government could have done to help slow down the spread and minimise the death rates. N95 masks, RAT's, keep some density restrictions in public settings. And historically, source a greater variety of vaccines and earlier than they did and prepare private aged care for inevitable outbreaks. But sadly the federal governemnt don't do risk management, it's not their style.

 

[larabee]

Good article on the ABC app today about the effectiveness of vaccines and boosters.

There is a lot of talk about whether the vaccines and the boosters stop infections. But, the infection numbers at the moment are very high, and while they may come down soon, the virus is clearly loose (that's what let it rip does). However, the biggest issue we currently face is the overloading of the health system and here the vaccines are proving very effective, from the ABC article:



That's pretty damned good!

Full article: https://www.abc.net.au/news/health/...cination-pfizer-moderna-astrazeneca/100763758

DS

some more Omicron data in the Age:

Omicron: a deep dive into the data

The science on Omicron is starting to settle, so what does it reveal about the new dominant strain’s infectiousness, mortality and vaccine resistance.

www.theage.com.au

two things stood out for me:
Delta is still around, at about 20% of cases. So about 4000 Delta cases today in Vic. Nearly twice as many as the peak of the last wave in October. So get vaccinated
AZ vaccine not too good against Omicron. If you're like me and had first two doses of AZ, go get a booster - I happened to get the Moderna which seems to offer more protection

 

[pete and tys]

Just to add a little perspective to all of this..not to belittle this pandemic.
1 Remember 50 million people died 100 years ago of the Spanish flu.
2 Currently at the S Nolan painting display at Tarrawarra in Yarra Valley.
Have attached the intro...the last sentence is just so true.

 

[Tigers of Old]

What is this media driven narrative that we're seemingly 'reaching the peak' in some states?
How the *smile* would they know that when testing data has become a complete joke.
Either they've stopped the PCR centres or people can't get access to RATs?
Victoria just announced a Code Brown yesterday FFS. Lets ask the Doctors & nurses if that's the case.

 

[RoarEmotion]

Best data I have found for excess deaths is here. If anything it says we have gone a little too hard on lockdowns but it’s not like controlling pH levels in your pool.

You can add your countries of choice to compare.

Please note vastly different y-axis and absolute and not per pop numbers - so divide US by 10ish to compare on that basis.

Estimated cumulative excess deaths during COVID

For countries that have not reported all-cause mortality data for a given week, an estimate is shown, with uncertainty interval. If reported data is available, that value only is shown.

ourworldindata.org

 

[Leysy Days]

What is this media driven narrative that we're seemingly 'reaching the peak' in some states?
How the *smile* would they know that when testing data has become a complete joke.
Either they've stopped the PCR centres or people can't get access to RATs?
Victoria just announced a Code Brown yesterday FFS. Lets ask the Doctors & nurses if that's the case.

To be fair it is Sutton (the most reserved of anyone) who has driven the narrative we are over the peak of case numbers (In Vic at least).

Also mentioned hospital numbers will lag behind (i.e. get worse) for a few more weeks before starting to improve.

 

[pete and tys]

Do you have any solid numbers for this? Or just guestimating?

Just noticed Victoria has 250,000 active covid cases...probably more in reality.
Population around 7 million. Equals 1 in 30 people have covid.
So my guesstimate is under....if 1000 die natural deaths, including accidents, then possibly 30 deaths a day occur with covid but not from covid.
Just makes the point clearer that covid related deaths are distorting when not clearly identified.
It is a fact that the govt and health department in Vic and NSW stated the majority of covid deaths were not deaths caused by covid infection.
Just for a little clarification..... posting now over !

 

[jb03]

We've been through this illogical argument about "dying with" or "dying from" before. It is another furfy thrown out by those trying to play down Omicron. If a person with terminal cancer dies in a car crash - how do you think they record the death. They also seem to have no concept of maths by continually quoting %s when it is the real numbers that matter. And one more is that they argue like you either die or a 100% fine - they don't cover off the wide range of health implications in between.