Coronavirus

[Ian4]

Active cases in Vic appear to have dropped by 3, first drop in a long time, imagine that's in part because of the 21 deaths, but also there must be plenty recovering, and coming out the other side.

The slowing down of active cases has been going on for a few days now, but this is actually the first time the active case figure is lower than the previous day since the start of the second wave (7877 today v 7880 yesterday), which is significant.

We have had 1457 new cases in the last 4 days, but active cases have only gone up by a net 69. You compare that to last wednesday where we had 725 new cases and a 521 net increase in active cases.

 

[Althom]

I wonder if it came in on an overseas delivery? They still don’t know for certain how long the virus stays on surfaces. Pretty concerning that you can virtually eradicate it as NZ appeared to have done & then it randomly tears it’s head again.

NZ has had similar issues to Australia with their hotel quarantine system. What's the betting this family have had contact with someone who was either let out without a test or someone who simply left quarantine?

 

[Sintiger]

Whilst COVID-19 is a terrible virus, it is going to highlight how poorly run a lot of Australia aged care centres are.
Howard and Costello set the wheels in motion when they slashed and burned health, welfare, the public service, tertiary education and Aged care, to name a few.

Two thirds of Australia's COVID-19 deaths are linked to aged care.
Our parents, grandparents, aunties and uncles deserve much much better care.

In the 1996-97 budget, the Howard government slashed $1 billion from aged care funding and introduced its Aged Care Act, claiming that higher fees and bonds would provide the incentive for investors to expand and improve the industry. Instead, conditions in nursing homes deteriorated and average waiting time lengthened significantly.

Under the Act, nursing home operators no longer had to allocate a set proportion of government subsidies to patient care. Links between the level of funding received and the number of qualified staff employed were removed. In 1998 the previous requirement for a registered nurse to be on duty was scrapped.

How John Howard contributed to the aged care crisis - The AIM Network

In 2000, when Bronwyn Bishop was the minister responsible for aged care, a horrific story came to light where residents of an aged care home were subjected to kerosene baths in order to control an outbreak of scabies. Several suffered second-degree burns and blisters. One woman, aged 84, died...

theaimn.com

Whilst that is all true since that time the transition to privately run aged care has been supported and encouraged by both LNP and ALP Governments. The only difference has been that state Labor Governments have been against residential aged care managed by Public hospitals being privatised whilst the LNP has not.

The reason they have all allowed it to happen is money. They know that without significant privatised aged care the cost going forward as our population ages is huge.

The general public must take some responsibility for this as well. Whilst we can talk about support for our elderly, we haven't been prepared to pay for it

 

[Harry]

so disappointing how we have let down the elderly who rely on us to care for them. We had plenty of time to put in appropriate controls and procedures to protect the most vulnerable but failed

 

[tigerman]

Whilst that is all true since that time the transition to privately run aged care has been supported and encouraged by both LNP and ALP Governments. The only difference has been that state Labor Governments have been against residential aged care managed by Public hospitals being privatised whilst the LNP has not.

The reason they have all allowed it to happen is money. They know that with significant privatised aged care the cost going forward as our population ages is huge.

The general public must take some responsibility for this as well. Whilst we can talk about support for our elderly, we haven't been prepared to pay for it

Some good relative points.
What annoys me the most is why the Howard government caved into the aged care operators to the detriment of elderly people.

"Under the Act, nursing home operators no longer had to allocate a set proportion of government subsidies to patient care. Links between the level of funding received and the number of qualified staff employed were removed. In 1998 the previous requirement for a registered nurse to be on duty was scrapped."

 

[Leysy Days]

Looking forward to Posh's synopsis of today's results.

 

[mrposhman]

Looking forward to Posh's synopsis of today's results.

Here you go.

Active cases outside of aged care and healthcare workers (healthcare active cases reduced too), continued to reduce, and the net movement in the last week is now a negative figure which is great news hence the Moving average falling below the 0 line. Active cases outside of aged care and healthcare workers has now had 5 consecutive days of decreases which is good news. At this rate though, it will still take a lot of time (around 2 months) for numbers to dwindle to next to no active cases but hopefully the impact of Stage 4 restrictions will start to kick in and start to accelerate the decline.

We haven't yet seen a huge decrease in daily new cases though, but the trend is definitely down but doesn't appear as if Stage 4 has really kicked in to reducing them by much. For example today was 395 (slightly different to the numbers that David will have due to reclassifications) and the Moving average is down to 373 so if the daily new cases don't start to decrease then we will see a platoughing of the 7 day Moving average rather than the curve down that we want to see.

Top chart is active cases outside of Aged Care and Healthcare workers and bottom chart is New cases with the 7 day moving average trend line.

 

[artball]

Aged Care Covid Cases: Victoria

In Private Aged Care overseen by Federal Govt - 1923
In Victorian State Run Public Aged Care - 6

 

[Brodders17]

Hotel quarantine situation just gets murkier, and I note Linda Reynolds press release from yesterday has now been withdrawn:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1293322750174478336

it is astonishing how often members of the current government get facts wrong, typically when they rush to defend themselves, or to attack Labor. MyGovs recent crash is another example.

 

[LeeToRainesToRoach]

Our parents, grandparents, aunties and uncles deserve much much better care.

Agree. It's a big decision and worth researching thoroughly and paying appropriately if you can. Some of the stories are horrific, both here and overseas.

 

[Sintiger]

What annoys me the most is why the Howard government caved into the aged care operators to the detriment of elderly people.

"Under the Act, nursing home operators no longer had to allocate a set proportion of government subsidies to patient care. Links between the level of funding received and the number of qualified staff employed were removed. In 1998 the previous requirement for a registered nurse to be on duty was scrapped."

yes, that is 100% correct. We have sacrificed care to ensure private operators could make money

 

[Althom]

NZ has had similar issues to Australia with their hotel quarantine system. What's the betting this family have had contact with someone who was either let out without a test or someone who simply left quarantine?

One family member apparently worked in a cool store in Auckland handling imported goods. Could well have been brought in on imported frozen food.

 

[MD Jazz]

Someone in the family is telling porkies.

Yeh, you wonder how many people are telling the truth when questioned on where they have been? If you aren't seriously ill and have the virus and have broken restriction rules their would be reluctance to tell the truth. Fear of getting fined etc would make it easier/more justifiable to yourself to not give full disclosure.

It would be interesting to know how many have got it through gatherings that are contrary to restriction rules.

 

[Coburgtiger]

One family member apparently worked in a cool store in Auckland handling imported goods. Could well have been brought in on imported frozen food.

That would be very very surprising, extremely unlikely and completely in contradiction with everything we know about coronaviruses.

Much more likely that there's a chain of asymptomatic carriers from overseas exposure.

 

[Althom]

That would be very very surprising, extremely unlikely and completely in contradiction with everything we know about coronaviruses.

Much more likely that there's a chain of asymptomatic carriers from overseas exposure.

Surface testing going on at the warehouse now. According to the NZ DG of Health there's a wealth of info that COVID-19 can survive for extended periods in a refrigerated environment.

However I would think it more likely that the family in question had been in contact with someone who was let out of quarantine untested or who got an exemption from quarantine.

Time will tell I guess.

 

[Greenie]

Hotel quarantine situation just gets murkier, and I note Linda Reynolds press release from yesterday has now been withdrawn:

Where did you see this Ian? I can't find it.
Cheers

 

[Dev Tiger]

Great analysis Posh. So you expect there to be next to no active cases in two months based on the current data? Is that only if we stay in Stage 4 lockdown all that time?

 

[eZyT]

Some good relative points.
What annoys me the most is why the Howard government caved into the aged care operators to the detriment of elderly people.

"Under the Act, nursing home operators no longer had to allocate a set proportion of government subsidies to patient care. Links between the level of funding received and the number of qualified staff employed were removed. In 1998 the previous requirement for a registered nurse to be on duty was scrapped."

After Howard effectively privatised aged care,

there was a stampede, led by Michael Kroger then LNP president, of LNP heavyweights

investing (= buying, slashing costs and wages, stuffing more elders in) in aged care.

They saw it as money for jam.

the same happened with child care.

LNP *smile* exploiting the very young and the very old.

this isnt speculation. this is what happened.

The old saying 'He'd sell his grandma at the right price' was never so apt.

but rich *smile* doing anything and exploiting anyone to make money, is not a new story.

 

[DavidSSS]

Aged care is a mess, leave it to the market and you get a mess. Anyone here who has had to put someone in aged care will know this well. We had to do this a few years ago and the main differences between care homes was the level of luxury shown in the brochure pics. The aged care industry is set up to fleece money from the rest of us and, typical of markets, it is an oligopoly. We did manage to find a decent place for our mum but we had to sell her house to do it and the number of actual nursing staff there would have been minimal. Also, you have to visit lots and at all times of the day and night to actually find out what is going on.

Anyway, today's number was not great but not too bad. A roller coaster is exactly what is expected but it is critical what happens over the next few days.

After correcting for amendments here is the graph, not sure the numbers are useful but I have them:



The 7 day average takes longer to react so is still heading down, but you can see the 5 day average plateauing a little. Both look like we are heading past the peak but too early to tell. Also, does it go down or sit at this level for a while? We'll see.

DS

 

[mrposhman]

Great analysis Posh. So you expect there to be next to no active cases in two months based on the current data? Is that only if we stay in Stage 4 lockdown all that time?

Hard to tell. I personally don't think the decline we are seeing has yet been affected by Stage 4. I think the decline is more co-operating with Stage 3 and compulsory mask wearing. Stage 4 only started 9 days ago, so potentially a bit early to be seeing that benefit.

Its logarithmic but yes with the level of decline seen over the last week, it would take around 70-80 days at the current rate of decline, however we have seen that decline increase the last few days, and hopefully with Stage 4 coming through may accelerate further. This assumption is however built on those restrictions causing the delay remaining in place for the entire term, hence why we have moved to Stage 4 to try and accelerate it.

We have 5 weeks remaining of Stage 4 (and I highly doubt there is anything that will reduce that) so we have 35 days remaining of Stage 4. Hopefully we can accelerate the decline, but in order to do that the number of new cases will likely need to take more steps downwards and again that will be what Stage 4 is targeting. We will probably know in a week how we are tracking and if its likely that the 5 weeks will be enough to significantly reduce active cases and new cases.