-
IMPORTANT // Please look after your loved ones, yourself and be kind to others. If you are feeling that the world is too hard to handle there is always help - I implore you not to hesitate in contacting one of these wonderful organisations Lifeline and Beyond Blue ... and I'm sure reaching out to our PRE community we will find a way to help. T.
Coronavirus
- Thread starter Tigers of Old
- Start date
The DHHS website is saying 2 for today so that's the number I will have to return to in the morning, have to keep the source of the figures consistent. Likely to be revised back to 1 sometime soon but until it is I want to keep everything consistent because, well, you know, I'm not an umpire 
DS
DS
Reality is Pakula should be sacked. On what planet did he think that would fly?
Just a continuation of the shitshow they have run down here
Probably trying to pave the way for some sort of Cup day crowd.
A lot of people weren't happy about racing continuing during the initial lockdown, but the fuss died away. Not sure whether the opposition was "It's not fair" or just the general public downer on the racing industry over animal welfare issues.
If my maths is correct, if we have 27 cases or less in 4 days, we will reach the 14 day average of 5 on Sunday. We will reach it on Saturday if we have 14 cases or less in the next 3 days. Mystery Cases have gone from 17 to 10 in 3 days. I'd be stunned if the government doesn’t enact the rest of step 3 this weekend instead of on November 1. The only thing stopping it is a new cluster.
Looking at the numbers, to get to a 14 day trailing average of 5 by Saturday we would need to have 20 cases or less in the next 4 days, by Sunday we need 34 cases or less over the next 5 days. Bear in mind my figures are from the data dashboard on the DHHS website (figures are different depending on where you look) and are updated each day when the DHHS update their figures. Also, mine are for the whole of Victoria as the DHHS data dashboard is for the whole state.
In any case, it doesn't matter which numbers you use, if we stay at the levels we are getting at the moment the 14 Day average should drop below 5 by the end of the weekend. The mystery cases are down and active cases were 123 last night so things are moving in the right direction.
3 today is good, here's what it looks like:
The 5 day average is showing it jumps around but the 14 Day average plateaued and is now going down slowly again. Will move down if the current numbers continue as we are about to lose some higher numbers over the next 6 days.
Here are the numbers:
Few more days and we should be there.
DS
In any case, it doesn't matter which numbers you use, if we stay at the levels we are getting at the moment the 14 Day average should drop below 5 by the end of the weekend. The mystery cases are down and active cases were 123 last night so things are moving in the right direction.
3 today is good, here's what it looks like:
The 5 day average is showing it jumps around but the 14 Day average plateaued and is now going down slowly again. Will move down if the current numbers continue as we are about to lose some higher numbers over the next 6 days.
Here are the numbers:
| Date | New Infections | 7 Day Trailing ave | 5 Day Centred ave | 14 Day Trailing ave |
| 7 October 2020 | 9 | 8.57 | 10.40 | 9.93 |
| 8 October 2020 | 10 | 9.29 | 9.80 | 9.71 |
| 9 October 2020 | 14 | 10.00 | 11.60 | 9.86 |
| 10 October 2020 | 11 | 10.14 | 12.00 | 9.50 |
| 11 October 2020 | 14 | 11.00 | 11.00 | 10.14 |
| 12 October 2020 | 11 | 10.57 | 9.40 | 10.29 |
| 13 October 2020 | 5 | 10.57 | 7.60 | 9.93 |
| 14 October 2020 | 6 | 10.14 | 5.00 | 9.36 |
| 15 October 2020 | 2 | 9.00 | 3.20 | 9.14 |
| 16 October 2020 | 1 | 7.14 | 3.00 | 8.57 |
| 17 October 2020 | 2 | 5.86 | 2.20 | 8.00 |
| 18 October 2020 | 4 | 4.43 | 2.40 | 7.71 |
| 19 October 2020 | 2 | 3.14 | 6.86 | |
| 20 October 2020 | 3 | 2.86 | 6.71 |
Few more days and we should be there.
DS
I reckon they've just screwed any chance of a special Melbourne Cup crowd by trying this on. Talk about not being able to read the room.
I think the aim for Cup day is likely beer gardens. Pubs open for limited people inside but greater numbers outside, Outside screens / betting terminals etc.
The Libs would have opened it all up so let's keep things in perspective shall we.
It was a mistake.. they acknowledged it & reversed it. Pretty refreshing to see any Government do that.
It was a mistake.. they acknowledged it & reversed it. Pretty refreshing to see any Government do that.
Recersed it only after a public outcry.
Why no one in his party (and really the blame is mainly on Pakula here, it should not have got past him in the first place), including Dan himself, could predict how such a decision would be received is pretty staggering.
Refreshing is not quite the way most would describe it
