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IMPORTANT // Please look after your loved ones, yourself and be kind to others. If you are feeling that the world is too hard to handle there is always help - I implore you not to hesitate in contacting one of these wonderful organisations Lifeline and Beyond Blue ... and I'm sure reaching out to our PRE community we will find a way to help. T.
Coronavirus
- Thread starter Tigers of Old
- Start date
The case numbers are now so low I think it is time the other states started to let us travel around.
If we can get the active cases down, I think they are at about 60 now, then we can get back to a more normal existence. Will have to keep some restrictions for quite a while I would think.
So, I reckon the graphs and case numbers are no longer as useful as they were as we tried to get this under control. Will likely keep doing them myself but for now might stop posting every day.
So, here's the whole second wave:
Since the start of September:
Plus the last 14 days in numbers:
Ok, now the rest of the world needs to catch up so we can go back to something approaching normal.
DS
If we can get the active cases down, I think they are at about 60 now, then we can get back to a more normal existence. Will have to keep some restrictions for quite a while I would think.
So, I reckon the graphs and case numbers are no longer as useful as they were as we tried to get this under control. Will likely keep doing them myself but for now might stop posting every day.
So, here's the whole second wave:
Since the start of September:
Plus the last 14 days in numbers:
| Date | New Infections | 7 Day Trailing ave | 5 Day centred ave | 14 Day Trailing ave |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 October 2020 | 3 | 4.29 | 1.80 | 7.71 |
| 19 October 2020 | 0 | 2.71 | 2.60 | 6.71 |
| 20 October 2020 | 3 | 2.43 | 2.40 | 6.57 |
| 21 October 2020 | 5 | 2.29 | 2.80 | 6.29 |
| 22 October 2020 | 1 | 2.14 | 4.20 | 5.64 |
| 23 October 2020 | 5 | 2.71 | 3.60 | 5.00 |
| 24 October 2020 | 7 | 3.43 | 2.60 | 4.64 |
| 25 October 2020 | 0 | 3.00 | 2.80 | 3.64 |
| 26 October 2020 | 0 | 3.00 | 2.20 | 2.86 |
| 27 October 2020 | 2 | 2.86 | 1.40 | 2.64 |
| 28 October 2020 | 2 | 2.43 | 1.40 | 2.36 |
| 29 October 2020 | 3 | 2.71 | 1.40 | 2.43 |
| 30 October 2020 | 0 | 2.00 | 2.36 | |
| 31 October 2020 | 0 | 1.00 | 2.21 |
Ok, now the rest of the world needs to catch up so we can go back to something approaching normal.
DS
Really great numbers again and important that we aren't getting unknown cases. We are now in a great position to have an awesome summer.
I think most other countries are well past the level where a strong lockdown that we have had will work, particularly over the same time period.
It will be interesting how history looks at the best way to deal with a pandemic both from a health and an economic point of view as there are so many things that impact it. Obviously deaths per million etc, but also things that will take a lot of time to gather the accurate data. We know even in people that have survived Covid-19 that their lungs are damaged, we don't know what impact this can have, does it result in a material decrease in life expectancy etc. Then you have the economic impact, regardless of what country you are in, there has been an economic impact, but is the best solution a near total shutdown for months (like we have had for the last 4 months) and then enabling your economy to full open and to grow consumer confidence, or is it best to have a partially opened economy for the full period of the pandemic. Clearly that will depend on how long this goes on for, but I think history will look back on this at a much wider level than just deaths or cases, but I think Australia is set up very well to bounce hard from the lockdown.
I'd think State borders may stay closed for a little longer, but they should be open by the end of November. If they aren't then someone is playing political games (or there has been a resurgence, but hopefully not).
I think most other countries are well past the level where a strong lockdown that we have had will work, particularly over the same time period.
It will be interesting how history looks at the best way to deal with a pandemic both from a health and an economic point of view as there are so many things that impact it. Obviously deaths per million etc, but also things that will take a lot of time to gather the accurate data. We know even in people that have survived Covid-19 that their lungs are damaged, we don't know what impact this can have, does it result in a material decrease in life expectancy etc. Then you have the economic impact, regardless of what country you are in, there has been an economic impact, but is the best solution a near total shutdown for months (like we have had for the last 4 months) and then enabling your economy to full open and to grow consumer confidence, or is it best to have a partially opened economy for the full period of the pandemic. Clearly that will depend on how long this goes on for, but I think history will look back on this at a much wider level than just deaths or cases, but I think Australia is set up very well to bounce hard from the lockdown.
I'd think State borders may stay closed for a little longer, but they should be open by the end of November. If they aren't then someone is playing political games (or there has been a resurgence, but hopefully not).
You have done an awesome job with this David
The normal recognition of zero community transmissions is 2x the transmission period, so 28 days. I suspect that is what they are going to use to open the VIC borders, rightly or wrongly.
You would expect the only active cases to be imported ones then, in quarantine hotels etc. The airports will open in November I expect
Let's keep our fingers crossed
Yep, I reckon the opening of airports and organising the quarantine arrangements will be the biggest and hardest step.
We'll have to see how we go and hopefully the rest of the world will start to get a handle on this too.
14 Day new infection average for Victoria is down to 2.0 on my numbers, and both the 7 and 5 day averages are down to 1.0 so looking good.
DS
The rest of the world seem to be dealing with this so differently, I do feel for those with very long land borders as its very difficult to close borders like that, especially in relatively highly populated areas. However they seem to be focusing on keeping the infection and hospitalisation rate in a certain band. Its awkward as its a one foot in, one foot out scenario, ie. the economy can't re-open fully, only partial, and therefore you aren't really doing any of it well. They are literally just trying to buy time for a vaccine, and they say by staying open they are protecting their economy, but depending on how long this goes on for, they may be hurting their economies with what they are doing. Its like the death by a thousand cuts analogy, we cut ourselves much deeper initially, but once the wound recovers we are good to go. A lot of other countries are stabbing lighter initially but continue to slice at the wound meaning it stays damaged for longer.
It'll be interesting to see GDP declines in various countries for both 2020 and 2021 against 2019.
Brett Sutton said yesterday that he is hopeful that when we have a sustained lack of community transmission the first step in regard to masks will be to not have them as mandatory outside. Even that would be a great step forward
I reckon the masks will stay for quite a while. They do seem to make a difference.
A pain I agree, but at least inside while not eating or drinking seems sensible.
Might need to balance this too as it is obvious that less people are wearing them properly now the numbers have gone down.
MrPoshman, I agree the situation overseas is quite different. Being an island is such an advantage (which is why we don't have rabies along with a fair few other diseases). The main issue I have with their approach is that a vaccine is not guaranteed and the long term health effects of COVID19 are still becoming apparent. As with a lot of these things, there is likely no right answer and also that, if there is a right answer, it is only apparent with hindsight.
DS
A pain I agree, but at least inside while not eating or drinking seems sensible.
Might need to balance this too as it is obvious that less people are wearing them properly now the numbers have gone down.
MrPoshman, I agree the situation overseas is quite different. Being an island is such an advantage (which is why we don't have rabies along with a fair few other diseases). The main issue I have with their approach is that a vaccine is not guaranteed and the long term health effects of COVID19 are still becoming apparent. As with a lot of these things, there is likely no right answer and also that, if there is a right answer, it is only apparent with hindsight.
DS
I think they should only be mandatory if you are indoors in enclosed environments like shops/supermarkets etc.
They are not compulsory in NSW and they managed a reduction to 0 without them so not sure how much difference they actually make. And I'm not sure people actually use and "operate" them correctly anyway. Do people sanitise after handling them? I see them being taken on and off as people get in and out of cars.
I think they are most effective as a deterrent to people doing things.
As in not reporting? Strange.
I find them interesting - given high levels of trust and social compliance, it was worth a shot. Most of their deaths seem to be in aged care facilities too.
I guess second wave in the northern winter will tell the story for Europe.
As soon as possible. Hate playing golf in a mask with glasses that fog up unless you tape the top of the mask to your face. And we're going to see a lot of white faces this year over summer!
Actually I've noticed Creighton from the Oz and the Skynews right wingers have stopped tweeting their pro Sweden articles.No daily totals submitted since Oct 29. Caseload was looking ominous.
It was interesting that the reverse of what Lee predicted happened and this is not a criticism of you Lee - Sweden became a poster child of the alt-right anti-lockdown brigade rather than a poster child of the left social-democrats.
For me the jury is still out on Sweden and many other countries - if you can do hard lockdown successfully and eradicate, go for it. Worked in Vietnam, Taiwan, NZ, Victoria, Singapore. But other countries with hard lockdown do less well - Peru and Argentina. Super hard official lockdown but it doesn't work, as people are poor, many don't have inhouse refrigeration, they have to go out each day at high risk to markets and to work.
Thailand seems to have done really well despite political chaos and protests against the military government. Indonesia, Philippines, less well but seem to be managing without total lockdowns.
For me the jury is still out on Sweden and many other countries - if you can do hard lockdown successfully and eradicate, go for it. Worked in Vietnam, Taiwan, NZ, Victoria, Singapore. But other countries with hard lockdown do less well - Peru and Argentina. Super hard official lockdown but it doesn't work, as people are poor, many don't have inhouse refrigeration, they have to go out each day at high risk to markets and to work.
Thailand seems to have done really well despite political chaos and protests against the military government. Indonesia, Philippines, less well but seem to be managing without total lockdowns.
