Coronavirus

[shad]

37,552 cases
813 deaths (2%)
6,196 severe (16%) - previously described as "critical"; only a small increase on yesterday's 6,106
2,685 recovered (7%)

I'm interested in your take on the numbers so far Lee. In particular the 2% mortality rate seems to have stayed very steady. My gut feel is that the stats coming out of China are being manufactured to a large extent. They just appear too neat. Thoughts?

 

[Baloo]

Less than 2% rate of deaths outside of China so far. What makes you think China are doctoring the stats? Do think they're inflating the stats

 

[LeeToRainesToRoach]

I'm interested in your take on the numbers so far Lee. In particular the 2% mortality rate seems to have stayed very steady. My gut feel is that the stats coming out of China are being manufactured to a large extent. They just appear too neat. Thoughts?

I honestly have no idea apart from a general attitude of suspicion toward the Chinese government. Yes, the trend does appear "neat". Some estimates put the "real" figures higher by a factor of ten. China's response is costing billions daily and speaks volumes about the seriousness of the situation. Put it this way - we know they're not overestimates. I'm trusting the figures until I know not to trust them.

With all due respect to the people of China, the figures elsewhere are probably more relevant to us. Singapore & Thailand 7 new cases today, France 5. We're not closed to travellers from these places.

 

[AngryAnt]

I read that the mortality rate is probably lower than 2%, as many people will encounter the virus and have only mild flu symptoms and never get diagnosed. It will be interesting to see if other countries show a similar rate to the Chinese ones.

 

[shad]

Less than 2% rate of deaths outside of China so far. What makes you think China are doctoring the stats? Do think they're inflating the stats

No, not really. It wouldn't surprise me if they were just making them up though, basically because they can say and do whatever they want.

 

[shad]

I honestly have no idea apart from a general attitude of suspicion toward the Chinese government. Yes, the trend does appear "neat". Some estimates put the "real" figures higher by a factor of ten. China's response is costing billions daily and speaks volumes about the seriousness of the situation. Put it this way - we know they're not overestimates. I'm trusting the figures until I know not to trust them.

With all due respect to the people of China, the figures elsewhere are probably more relevant to us. Singapore & Thailand 7 new cases today, France 5. We're not closed to travellers from these places.

Thanks. It will be interesting to see how they compare with what happens in a Western democracy. We'll never get the full story from China.

 

[Giardiasis]

No, not really. It wouldn't surprise me if they were just making them up though, basically because they can say and do whatever they want.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1226203341086175233

 

[LeeToRainesToRoach]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1226203341086175233

Those figures have been rounded conveniently. There is actually a slight downward trend from 2.2 to 2.0 in those numbers.

 

[Coburgtiger]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1226203341086175233

This is like being surprised by flipping a coin a thousand times and getting fifty percent heads.

If the mortality rate is 2%, then it's 2%.
Increase the total number, the ratio doesn't change.

 

[Brodders17]

Those figures have been rounded conveniently. There is actually a slight downward trend from 2.2 to 2.0 in those numbers.

the Feb 6 figures actually equal 1.97%.

 

[LeeToRainesToRoach]

40,553 cases
909 deaths (2.24%)
6,494 severe (16%)
3,322 recovered (8%)

Official figures at this stage suggest the spread of the virus is stabilising, before hopefully being reeled in.

 

[Baloo]

40,553 cases
909 deaths (2.24%)
6,494 severe (16%)
3,322 recovered (8%)

Official figures at this stage suggest the spread of the virus is stabilising, before hopefully being reeled in.

Maybe in China, but the rate of confirmed cases is starting to rise in other countries. Where I am we're seeing local infection where people have had no known or traceable interaction with anyone from Wuhan. If anything it's now that *smile* gets serious.

 

[YinnarTiger]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1226203341086175233

This bloke is obviously completely ignorant of how to accurately use his abacus.

 

[Tigers of Old]

Infections now up to 130 on the cruise ship..
A reminder there's 223 Australians on board.

Four Australians among 65 new coronavirus cases on Diamond Princess cruise ship

Japan's Health Ministry says four Australians are among the 65 new cases of coronavirus on the Diamond Princess cruise ship, taking the total number of cases from the vessel to 135.

www.abc.net.au

909 deaths (2.24%)

A big jump on yesterday.

 

[Tigers of Old]

'Under the measures, people can now be forcibly quarantined and will not be free to leave.'

UK - Announce Coronavirus 'imminent threat' to public health

Major development IMO.

 

[LeeToRainesToRoach]

A big jump on yesterday.

Yeah, will tick over the thousand tomorrow you'd think. Won't be surprised to see it get up around 3% when the number of new cases each day declines.

 

[LeeToRainesToRoach]

43,099 cases
1,018 deaths (2.36%)
7,344 severe (17%)
4,043 recovered (9%)

 

[AngryAnt]

Fantastic article here from the Straits Times interviewing a doctor on the frontline in Wuhan. He explains the prognosis - basically if you can survive three weeks you will survive. Those that die essentially go into full body autoimmune inflammation and suffer organ failure. Very hard to save people once in this state.

Reporter's Notebook: Life and death in a Wuhan coronavirus ICU

WUHAN (CAIXIN GLOBAL) - In the coronavirus epidemic, doctors on the front lines take on the greatest risk and best understand the situation. Peng Zhiyong, director of acute medicine at the Wuhan University South Central Hospital, is one of those doctors. Read more at straitstimes.com.

www.straitstimes.com

 

[LeeToRainesToRoach]

Fantastic article here from the Straits Times interviewing a doctor on the frontline in Wuhan. He explains the prognosis - basically if you can survive three weeks you will survive. Those that die essentially go into full body autoimmune inflammation and suffer organ failure. Very hard to save people once in this state.

Reporter's Notebook: Life and death in a Wuhan coronavirus ICU

WUHAN (CAIXIN GLOBAL) - In the coronavirus epidemic, doctors on the front lines take on the greatest risk and best understand the situation. Peng Zhiyong, director of acute medicine at the Wuhan University South Central Hospital, is one of those doctors. Read more at straitstimes.com.

www.straitstimes.com

That doctor is a fact machine!

Curious choice of words in a couple of places. "The patient who impressed me the most...", and "Her husband decided to give up". Decided not to spend any more money on treatment?

 

[AngryAnt]

That doctor is a fact machine!

Curious choice of words in a couple of places. "The patient who impressed me the most...", and "Her husband decided to give up". Decided not to spend any more money on treatment?

Yes, could be translation issues as I imagine it's gone from Mandarin to English. I think the husband probably "gave up" as he would have to have borrowed more money from relatives etc. I imagine 39K USD is a lot of money for most mainland Chinese people. "Impressed" could mean "pleasantly surprised" or something.