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Coronavirus

mrposhman

Tiger Legend
Oct 6, 2013
17,852
21,182
one could choose to believe the NSW were the experts in responding to Covid outbreaks, and got it right every time, until this outbreak. Or you could believe the fact they have got it so wrong this time suggests they dont know everything, and an element of luck has contributed to their successful handling of other cases.

The latter is the way I tend to look at it. The fact that they are lamenting, larger family group settings (same as VIC 2nd wave), lower income workers (same as VIC 2nd wave) and food processing type jobs (same as VIC 2nd wave), then there are clearly similar links to this outbreak in NSW and that of our 2nd wave when we were locked down for 4 months.
 

mrposhman

Tiger Legend
Oct 6, 2013
17,852
21,182
So pretty much they've been lucky until now? Vic unlucky/NSW lucky is a constant narrative on here. There is no doubt they got this outbreak wrong. But their method was correct on a number of previous occasions. Understandable in some ways they relied on their usual methods. They underestimated Delta. It's almost purely political now. You'd think Gladys had killed 000's given the carry on here. One poster in particular has posted nothing but aggressive hatred since the start. Even when they handled previous outbreaks successfully and well its been nothing but abuse for Gladys. Coatsworth has written a well measured article.

Ultimately the one person most at fault is our PM. The division and antagonism lies squarely with him. No strategy for 18 months. Non-existent leadership. The sooner is consigned to history the better for the nation.

Its not a question of who has been lucky and who hasn't, but understanding the similarities.

VICs 2nd wave last year and the current outbreak in NSW are incredibly similar. Looking at the responses, the NSW govt have done the exact same thing as the VIC govt did last year, expect the VIC govt took responsibility and sorted it out, the NSW govt throws a tantrum and demands that other states give them their vaccines, despite it being on tape clear as day, that their premier was not willing to do the same just 6 weeks ago. Hypocrisy in its finest.
 
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MD Jazz

Don't understand football? Talk to the hand.
Feb 3, 2017
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13,714
Its not a question of who has been lucky and who hasn't, but understanding the similarities.

VICs 2nd wave last year and the current outbreak in NSW are incredibly similar. Looking at the responses, the NSW govt have done the exact same thing as the VIC govt did last year, expect the VIC govt took responsibility and sorted it out, the NSW govt throws a tantrum and demands that other states give them their vaccines, despite it being on tape clear as day, that their premier was not willing to do the same just 6 weeks ago. Hypocrisy in its finest.
The only outbreak their strategy has failed is the delta variant outbreak. And I imagine residents of Syd got complacent as they had managed every previous outbreak successfully with the same approach. They under estimated this strain and it’s been a costly mistake.
 

mrposhman

Tiger Legend
Oct 6, 2013
17,852
21,182
The only outbreak their strategy has failed is the delta variant outbreak. And I imagine residents of Syd got complacent as they had managed every previous outbreak successfully with the same approach. They under estimated this strain and it’s been a costly mistake.

There are differences between this outbreak, and thats what I'm saying. Its convenient to say its the Delta strain, thats what they are saying, but they are hardly going to say, sorry we *smile* up.

What communities have their previous outbreaks occurred in? The major one was the Northern Beaches (a very different demographic to SW Sydney etc).

You are as bad as those that you comment on that just go the negative. You have bought the spin of the NSW govt but gave very little similar compassion and allowance to the VIC govt.

I suspect what time will show is that different level of lockdowns work within different demographics of a city, but that a one size fits all policy does not work.
 
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TT33

Yellow & Black Member
Feb 17, 2004
6,816
5,805
Melbourne
The only outbreak their strategy has failed is the delta variant outbreak. And I imagine residents of Syd got complacent as they had managed every previous outbreak successfully with the same approach. They under estimated this strain and it’s been a costly mistake.

They should have looked at what Victoria did when we had the Delta outbreak & learned from it. NOT try to be holier than thou & think they knew everything, it was clearly spelled out that the Delta variety was far more virulent than previous Covid strains. Now NSW authorities are saying that they didn't know that was the case.
Well really, just open your eyes & ears to see what happened earlier in this year in Victoria.

Dumb arrogance by them imo.
 
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eZyT

Tiger Legend
Jun 28, 2019
21,434
25,778
Just got my first AZ shot, despite being 32.

The doc really makes you worried about it in the mandatory consultation.

E. G. "You are aware that in your age group in Victoria right now you're more likely to die from the AZ shot than from Covid."

"You are aware the federal government has said that Pfizer will be available before October".

I'm the least antivaxx person on the planet and it worried me.

yeah i copped a similar dissuasion attempt.

super weird.

i said 'a little less conversation, a little more action please nurse. Just stick her in?'

im actually perplexed by this. I think theres enough AZ supply to do greater sydney twice,

and they're appealing for Pfizer.

its like your dying of thirst in a desert, with only a Pepsi, and you wait for a Coke.

roman empire stuff
 
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Bunnerz

Richmond are cool man
Aug 12, 2003
3,136
437
Geelong
what number does Vic need to get open on Wednesday do yas think (new cases wise).
Im hearing if Mon and Tues are under 10 they are going to open up.

Thoughts?
 

LeeToRainesToRoach

Tiger Legend
Jun 4, 2006
33,186
11,546
Melbourne
The media won't pick up on this (they'll ignore it), but it's actually quite significant.

Remember last year when Andrews was criticised for "refusing ADF forces to help with HQ?" Well Morrison said yesterday the ADF can't do enforcement. Straight from the horses mouth. Caught out in yet another lie.

Twitter is not a reputable news source. Stop filling your head with nonsense.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-12...equest-for-new-hotel-quarantine-prog/12952512

The Government said it had revised its Defence Force request and had now asked the Commonwealth to provide 172 ADF personnel to support the hotel quarantine program.
...
The spokesperson said the ADF personnel would support police by helping residents on entry and exit, as well as registering staff movements and temperature-checking workers before their shifts.
 
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MD Jazz

Don't understand football? Talk to the hand.
Feb 3, 2017
13,329
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There are differences between this outbreak, and thats what I'm saying. Its convenient to say its the Delta strain, thats what they are saying, but they are hardly going to say, sorry we *smile* up.

What communities have their previous outbreaks occurred in? The major one was the Northern Beaches (a very different demographic to SW Sydney etc).

You are as bad as those that you comment on that just go the negative. You have bought the spin of the NSW govt but gave very little similar compassion and allowance to the VIC govt.

I suspect what time will show is that different level of lockdowns work within different demographics of a city, but that a one size fits all policy does not work.
What they say (or what you or I say) is irrelevant. All that really matters are results/outcomes. You and others have declared it luck. Lets hope they get lucky and bring it back to 0. I'm sure we are all hoping for that.
 

mrposhman

Tiger Legend
Oct 6, 2013
17,852
21,182
What they say (or what you or I say) is irrelevant. All that really matters are results/outcomes. You and others have declared it luck. Lets hope they get lucky and bring it back to 0. I'm sure we are all hoping for that.

I've never said its all related to luck, thats a fallacy. They did deal well with the previous outbreaks, however there appears to be some elements of luck as to what populations became infected. Even you (not sitting on your fence) should be able to see that the demographics of the current outbreak are far more similar to that of vics wave 2 last year than any of the other outbreaks in Sydney.

Action is certainly important, all I'm saying is that luck as to which parts of the population demographic become infected is certainly a part of it all too.

As I said, I suspect there will be a couple of theories over what type of lockdown works, but it will be dependent on which population demographic becomes infected.

Ie. highly mobile, lower income and higher proportion of multi age family dwellings = HARD lockdown. Lower mobility, higher income (higher proportion of WFH) etc may be better with a less stringent lockdown.

The NSW government has failed to see the difference and have gone with a one size fits all response and as expected its proven to be far from sufficient to control the virus. Victoria has showed TWICE now that you can control Delta (regardless of what Gladys and Hazzard try to make you believe with their spin), but in order to do that you need to go hard and fast. Dwell for just a few days and it gets beyond you. They failed to recognise that Delta is quicker, and was in a far higher risk demographic of the population in terms of virus spread and we are now where we are.

BTW luck won't bring them back to 0. ACTION will, and that means going harder than they are going with their lockdown. Today there were still more than 50 cases outside of those 5 LGA's that they have said are the epicentre. This will spread very quickly if they don't change their rhetoric which seems to be to blame those LGA's and everyone else is fine. Its a dangerous rhetoric that may well result in spread elsewhere in the city going forwards.
 

Sintiger

Tiger Legend
Aug 11, 2010
18,203
17,603
Camberwell
This is such a good table. Probably done a little while ago as the current NSW breach cases would be much higher that this now.
In many ways this brings into context the hysteria of the security guards breaches last year. The fact is that breaches are inevitable but it has always been about what happens afterwards. That was the real failure in Victoria last year, the contact tracing and the failures in aged care.
 
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