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Coronavirus

mrposhman

Tiger Legend
Oct 6, 2013
11,404
8,304
NSW look to be on the way down. Vic in strife - on the current trent it won't take long for Vic to overtake NSW.
View attachment 13548

It will be interesting to see if we get those massive spikes like you see in the NSW dailies. We are around the level of cases where they saw those big spikes per day between 450 and 650, the 650 to over 800, then to over 1000, to 1300 and then up to nearly 1600. Interesting to see if we follow the same trajectory or it it stagnates around these levels
 

Ian4

BIN MAN!
May 6, 2004
20,739
2,005
Melbourne
NSW look to be on the way down. Vic in strife - on the current trent it won't take long for Vic to overtake NSW.

One advantage we have over NSW is that our vaccination rates were higher at the start of our outbreak. you would hope this means we plateau earlier than they do (NSW are on day 90 of their outbreak and we are on day 41).

But we won’t be able to escape the fact that we will probably overtake NSW in daily numbers in around a week or so (for a short period).
 
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mrposhman

Tiger Legend
Oct 6, 2013
11,404
8,304
400k extra doses can’t come soon enough for Melbourne.


Why are all the suburbs that are getting most of the cases NOT getting vaccinated. This is the sort of thing that pisses people off.

Others all getting their arms available, and the very areas that are spreading the virus also do not get the vaccinations.

When you have these suburbs with a lower than 60% 1st vaccination rate we have an issue

Melbourne - 54.2%
Hume - 55.0%
Whittlesea - 56.2%
Greater Dandenong - 56.7%
Brimbank - 57.9%
Darebin - 59.3%
Melton - 59.8%

Other than Dandenong, they are all city, or inner west and north. Pull your fingers (or hopefully your arms) out people in those suburbs.
 
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Brodders17

Tiger Legend
Mar 21, 2008
13,288
3,157
One advantage we have over NSW is that our vaccination rates were higher at the start of our outbreak. you would hope this means we plateau earlier than they do (NSW are on day 90 of their outbreak and we are on day 41).

But we won’t be able to escape the fact that we will probably overtake NSW in daily numbers in around a week or so (for a short period).
Are you counting days since the Vic "donut" day? it is clear this outbreak started before that. and that there were a number of cases already in the community by the time the positive test came back.
 

Ian4

BIN MAN!
May 6, 2004
20,739
2,005
Melbourne
As I’ve said previously, the new Doherty Report modelling was handed to the federal government last week but hasn't been released to the public. If Andrews is ready to provide a roadmap on sunday, then he must have read it.

Any predictions on what the roadmap will be? I’m sure it’ll be something like this:
- percentages adjusted to include 12-15 year olds.
- 60% fully vaxxed: semi-essential retail to open (ie. hairdressers, beauticians, etc) with strict density limits. Travel limit moved to 25km. no home visits.
- 70% fully vaxxed: all retail to open. Hospitality to open with small caps (ie. 10-20 people per room). Travel limits scrapped. 5 visitors per household. offices to reopen at 25%.
- 80% fully vaxxed: Hospitality fully open to the 1 per 4 sqmm rule. 15 visitors per household. Masks outdoors removed. offices to reopen at 50%.
- 90% fully vaxxed: all restrictions removed.

Why are all the suburbs that are getting most of the cases NOT getting vaccinated. This is the sort of thing that pisses people off.

Others all getting their arms available, and the very areas that are spreading the virus also do not get the vaccinations.

When you have these suburbs with a lower than 60% 1st vaccination rate we have an issue

Melbourne - 54.2%
Hume - 55.0%
Whittlesea - 56.2%
Greater Dandenong - 56.7%
Brimbank - 57.9%
Darebin - 59.3%
Melton - 59.8%

Other than Dandenong, they are all city, or inner west and north. Pull your fingers (or hopefully your arms) out people in those suburbs.

to be fair, targeted vaccination hubs have helped a lot over the past couple of days. Wyndham, Hume and Greater Shepparton have had some pretty big increases.
 
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jb03

Tiger Legend
Jan 28, 2004
30,044
5,501
Melbourne
As I’ve said previously, the new Doherty Report modelling was handed to the federal government last week but hasn't been released to the public. If Andrews is ready to provide a roadmap on sunday, then he must have read it.

Any predictions on what the roadmap will be? I’m sure it’ll be something like this:
- percentages adjusted to include 12-15 year olds.
- 60% fully vaxxed: semi-essential retail to open (ie. hairdressers, beauticians, etc) with strict density limits. Travel limit moved to 25km. no home visits.
- 70% fully vaxxed: all retail to open. Hospitality to open with small caps (ie. 10-20 people per room). Travel limits scrapped. 5 visitors per household. offices to reopen at 25%.
- 80% fully vaxxed: Hospitality fully open to the 1 per 4 sqmm rule. 15 visitors per household. Masks outdoors removed. offices to reopen at 50%.
- 90% fully vaxxed: all restrictions removed.



to be fair, targeted vaccination hubs have helped a lot over the past couple of days. Wyndham, Hume and Greater Shepparton have had some pretty big increases.
The previous Doherty modelling does not contain any sort of recommendations on easing of restrictions (or placing them either). They can't possibly model that, it would be guesswork at best.
 

mrposhman

Tiger Legend
Oct 6, 2013
11,404
8,304
The previous Doherty modelling does not contain any sort of recommendations on easing of restrictions (or placing them either). They can't possibly model that, it would be guesswork at best.

The modelling won't state that either. It will be modelling the number of hospitalisations / deaths at each level of vaccination assuming that we are fully open.
 

MD Jazz

Tiger Legend
Feb 3, 2017
8,003
5,217
125 deaths was an arbitrary figure. Because I was asking the question about “what is an acceptable number of daily deaths,” and used Heart Disease and Cancer numbers as a comparison. Maybe I should have worded it better.

In the future, we will not be counting case numbers, but the amount of hospitalisations and deaths. So at what number do we think the daily death count is unacceptable and measures need to be taken to reduce it? Not to mention how this will affect/overload our hospital network. Is 25 per day acceptable? What about 50 per day? Or 100? Where do we draw the line?

You call it fearmongering, I call it being pragmatic. It wasn’t that long ago virologist Alan Baxter was predicting 200 deaths per day in NSW by the end of October. Clearly vaccine rates are kicking in and changing that, but they have still had 53 deaths in the past week. And with another 222 in ICU (and who knows how many people struggling to breathe at home), those numbers are only going up. And it will get far worse once they open up at 70%.
You've used statistics well previously, why use an arbitrary figure? Pitching for a job at the Doherty Institute?

There's an opportunity cost to everything. We have some pretty good guidemaps to follow with other countries experience, I hope we use it.
 

Coburgtiger

Tiger Champion
May 7, 2012
3,785
2,669
You've used statistics well previously, why use an arbitrary figure? Pitching for a job at the Doherty Institute?

There's an opportunity cost to everything. We have some pretty good guidemaps to follow with other countries experience, I hope we use it.

You've said a lot of doofus level things in this thread, but having a go at the doherty institute is up there.

It's the dipstick politicians in Canberra who are plugging arbitrary out-of-context figures into their agendas, the Doherty just did modelling.

Accurate modelling within the parameters in which it was completed.

But it's about right that posters on a football forum think they know more about infectious disease than the southern hemisphere's foremost experts.
 
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Ian4

BIN MAN!
May 6, 2004
20,739
2,005
Melbourne
Are you counting days since the Vic "donut" day? it is clear this outbreak started before that. and that there were a number of cases already in the community by the time the positive test came back.

You make a very interesting point. When we had the doughnut day on August 4, we still had about 200 active cases.

If you disregard the doughnut day on August 4, you can mount an argument that the VIC outbreak really started on July 13. That means we are at day 63 of our outbreak.

If you compare day 63 data with NSW, this tells us that the VIC outbreak isn't moving faster than NSW at all. It's actually moving significantly slower...

- On day 63, VIC had 438 cases.
- On day 63, NSW had 671 cases.
- On day 63, VIC had 5,350 total cases during the outbreak.
- On day 63, NSW had 10,061 total cases during the outbreak.
- On day 63, VIC had 6 total deaths.
- On day 63, NSW had 61 total deaths.
- On day 63, VIC had 45 cases in ICU.
- On day 63, NSW had 82 cases in ICU.

As for vaccinations, on July 13 (day 1), VIC had administered 1,299,562 total doses. NSW had administered 631,896 total doses on June 17 (day 1). So we had a head start in this regard. NB: I'm not sure what the exact percentages are.
 
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tommystigers

Don't Boo! It is hurtful to the inept and corrupt.
Oct 6, 2004
3,701
696
The older group (70+) are similar to the rest of the country. I think the big issue is that 50-70 group.

How big a population of indigenous peoples are there in Queensland. Its not something that is discussed much but I did see an article indicating that indigenous vaccination levels were well below others. That might explain why NT, WA and QLD have the lowest rates of vaccination in the country.

Do you guys have articles that reference vaccination rates per LGA like we do in VIC?
Posh, I found the stats by Qld regions and there is lethargy almost across the board. Gold Coast, which is where I live, has close to 700,000 population and has had as of yesterday only 174,000 vaccinations. Vaccinations have been available through GP‘s for at least 5 months. I know because I became eligible for AZ in early May. There must be a hell of a lot of 50 plus codgers like myself, and there are a crap load on the Gold Coast, wandering around unvaccinated. Pfizer for that age group has been available for a couple of months because my boss got his second dose a couple of weeks ago with a six week break between jabs. Some regional areas are trickling at hundreds in a day.

Watch them all bleat and moan about lost shekels and the death of tourism or their region when COVID finally hits hard and they get to NSW or Victorian lock down levels. I see most people wear masks and check-in when in shops but there is a young element and some older ones that are ignoring the rules and just don’t care. These are the dangerous ones. They are likely if they get sick to not get tested and to start a mass outbreak.
 
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Born_a_Tiger78

Tiger Rookie
Jul 16, 2008
229
85
Guessing it's a young demographic and they're either in the queue (late joiners) or they don't want it.
Could be that, and it could also be combined with a large portion of the international student population not "living" there at the moment.

Are these people still considered in the population estimates, even though they can never be included in the vaccinated rates, as they won't be vaccinated in Australia?
 

MD Jazz

Tiger Legend
Feb 3, 2017
8,003
5,217
You've said a lot of doofus level things in this thread, but having a go at the doherty institute is up there.

It's the dipstick politicians in Canberra who are plugging arbitrary out-of-context figures into their agendas, the Doherty just did modelling.

Accurate modelling within the parameters in which it was completed.

But it's about right that posters on a football forum think they know more about infectious disease than the southern hemisphere's foremost experts.
It was slightly tongue in cheek but love your work. I'm surprised you keep lowering yourself to this thread.

I suppose the George bashing is on hold so you've got the time.
 
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LeeToRainesToRoach

Tiger Legend
Jun 4, 2006
32,827
11,114
Melbourne
Could be that, and it could also be combined with a large portion of the international student population not "living" there at the moment.

Are these people still considered in the population estimates, even though they can never be included in the vaccinated rates, as they won't be vaccinated in Australia?
No way they'd be counted in the ~26m, but it's in our interest to vaccinate them if they're going to be here awhile.
 

Born_a_Tiger78

Tiger Rookie
Jul 16, 2008
229
85
No way they'd be counted in the ~26m, but it's in our interest to vaccinate them if they're going to be here awhile.
I agree, but would they be counted in the 150K residents of City of Melbourne? And say, if 7.5K have left, and are still counted in the estimated City of Melbourne residents, it obviously lowers the percentage of vaccinated residents.
 

Wildride

Tiger Superstar
Sep 6, 2006
1,710
238
Brisbane
Th
Victoria on track to hit 80% double dose 6 weeks later than NSW according to 7:30. Didn't realise how much of an advantage NSW had in the vaccine rollout until seeing this.

This could be misleading - it looks like they’re projecting from current second dose rates. This will be a major underestimate for Vic as it lags our first dose rate by 50odd days. The rate will dramatically accelerate over the next month.
The covidbase projection I believe takes this surge into account and is forecasting 80% by the end of October, about 2-3 weeks after NSW.
 
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LeeToRainesToRoach

Tiger Legend
Jun 4, 2006
32,827
11,114
Melbourne
I agree, but would they be counted in the 150K residents of City of Melbourne? And say, if 7.5K have left, and are still counted in the estimated City of Melbourne residents, it obviously lowers the percentage of vaccinated residents.
Not sure if they have a checklist and mark people off after they're vaccinated. Assuming population figures come from electoral rolls and/or the census, visiting students won't be included.

Homeless people would also be excluded and obviously were the focus of a recent cluster.

Suspect the number of vaccinations dispensed vs known population is never going to line up exactly.
 
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