Coronavirus

[AngryAnt]

I don’t really know Caesar but your assumptions may well be close to correct. When they refer to a ventilator they are talking about mechanical ventilation which means the patient cannot breathe on their own and all those patients will be in an ICU. That’s different to what is called Non invasive ventilation which is a mask on oxygen for assisted breathing which is done outside ICUs as well as inside.
Whether all patients who are dying are doing so in an ICU and are ventilated I am not sure but I would suspect an assumption that most if not all are would be pretty close to the truth.
The really sick patients are also on what is called ECMO. It is extreme and only done in the hospitals in Melbourne who handle the most acutely sick patients.

Extracorporeal membrane oxygenation - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

Lots of talk in the states from people with non-vaxxed relatives in ICUs and not looking good saying "pray he/she gets a ECMO" ... amazing they won't take a vaccine but are happy to go with one of the most extreme therapies possible. The line out of the groin area for example.

 

[Sintiger]

Lots of talk in the states from people with non-vaxxed relatives in ICUs and not looking good saying "pray he/she gets a ECMO" ... amazing they won't take a vaccine but are happy to go with one of the most extreme therapies possible. The line out of the groin area for example.

ECMO is relatively new, maybe the last 10-12 years, before then basically any patient in that condition would die. I have seen a video of it , scary stuff.
Insight on SBS did a show on it a few years ago and one of the people on it was a patient who had broken the record in Australia for the longest anyone had lived after being clinically dead and he was saved by ECMO. Can't remember how long it was but it was an astonishingly long time.

 

[caesar]

I don’t really know Caesar but your assumptions may well be close to correct. When they refer to a ventilator they are talking about mechanical ventilation which means the patient cannot breathe on their own and all those patients will be in an ICU. That’s different to what is called Non invasive ventilation which is a mask on oxygen for assisted breathing which is done outside ICUs as well as inside.
Whether all patients who are dying are doing so in an ICU and are ventilated I am not sure but I would suspect an assumption that most if not all are would be pretty close to the truth.
The really sick patients are also on what is called ECMO. It is extreme and only done in the hospitals in Melbourne who handle the most acutely sick patients.

Extracorporeal membrane oxygenation - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

I found this but studies seem to vary a fair bit:: (bottom line, scary odds if you happen to find yourself on a vetilator with Covid)

* (CFR) Case Fatality Rate

Measurements and Results: Sixty-nine studies were included, describing 57,420 adult patients with COVID-19 who received IMV.

Among studies in which age-stratified CFR was available, pooled CFR estimates ranged from 47.9% (95% CI, 46.4-49.4%) in younger patients (age ≤40 yr) to 84.4% (95% CI, 83.3-85.4%) in older patients (age >80 yr).

 

[CarnTheTiges]

I reckon Novak’s issue is that he’s a knob.

He was a knob before COVID. He says that his medical status is private, how does that go when he’s asked to provide information for drug testing? This isn’t a whole lot different to that.

 

[Sintiger]

I found this but studies seem to vary a fair bit:: (bottom line, scary odds if you happen to find yourself on a vetilator with Covid)

* (CFR) Case Fatality Rate

Measurements and Results: Sixty-nine studies were included, describing 57,420 adult patients with COVID-19 who received IMV.

Among studies in which age-stratified CFR was available, pooled CFR estimates ranged from 47.9% (95% CI, 46.4-49.4%) in younger patients (age ≤40 yr) to 84.4% (95% CI, 83.3-85.4%) in older patients (age >80 yr).

It would be interesting to see how that compares with non COVID mechanically ventilated patients. If you on MV you are very sick

 

[Sintiger]

I reckon Novak’s issue is that he’s a knob.

He is a first class knob of the highest degree. It is the one thing Nick Kyrgios has got right.

 

[22nd Man]

Vaccinations in Victoria are flying. We are at 88.81% first dose compared to NSW 92.29% first dose. We have administered more doses than NSW for 4 consecutive days, despite the difference in population. We are catching up very quickly.

I predicted recently that NSW will start slowing down after announcing they will open up to the unvaxxed on December 1. This may have already begun.

Might also be slowing down because they are approaching the aysmptote of those who ever intend to get vaccinated ? The alternative is that the gradient continues as it was and then just instantly stops at 94, 96, 98 or 100 %

 

[22nd Man]

He was a knob before COVID. He says that his medical status is private, how does that go when he’s asked to provide information for drug testing? This isn’t a whole lot different to that.

Well it seems they don't declare even that... until they are busted on a drug test. 'I have a heart condition' et c

 

[22nd Man]

The new 24 hour case numbers by LGA are highlighting the case spread. It’s not just the Northern and Western LGA’s getting new cases. They’re still getting the most but other LGA’s eg East and South East are exposing. Think a lot of people in my LGA consider they’re a bit removed from it all and that it’s just a North and West thing at the moment. They’re wrong.

Went and had a look at NSw vax rates by LGA
Lowest are the inner suburbs and city centre, pretty much like Melbourne, assume they have the mix of students, migrants and hipsters and highly educated.
Highest are the ones that look like the high income ones, same as here.
Where the difference is is in the hotspot suburbs, some of the Sydney ones are very impressive, ours still getting there.

And in the bush...most Vic regional area are flying high. NSsW have a dozen lower than the worst urban area. I'm guuesing as vic is smaller and so closer to melb and they have had several lockdowns (and lockouts of city people) they know they cannot avoid it. The Blue Mountains still provide a barrier of some sort at least metaphorically.

 

[Bunnerz]

what month will we all have to get the 3rd jab so we are fully fully vaccinated

 

[Carter]

Yep Novak is a knob.

Vaccination isn’t a private matter, it is akin to being asked if he is carrying a weapon.

It’s a security matter.

 

[caesar]

what month will we all have to get the 3rd jab so we are fully fully vaccinated

Reckon it will be 6 months after you received the 2nd jab, so an early Christmas present for me, mid December.

 

[DavidSSS]

Reckon it will be 6 months after you received the 2nd jab, so an early Christmas present for me, mid December.

Yeah, I'm thinking a bit longer given the supplies and the priority to get the first 2 jabs to as many as possible.

Also, we will need to wait for ATAGI to work out what vax those who have had AZ get given we are no longer making AZ at CSL. Still looking at what is happening overseas to get some idea of what is the best combo. Plus, I presume there is more research happening to try and make the vaccinations even better.

So, I'm thinking more Feb/March 2022 but it will certainly be somewhere around December to March.

DS

 

[Ian4]

Is anyone able to provide a link or chart of a state by state breakdown of how many AstraZeneca vaccines have been administered in Australia? I know the total doses is over 10 million. But I can’t find a state by state breakdown.

Andrews claimed Victoria used the most. Is that actually true?

 

[BT Tiger]

Is anyone able to provide a link or chart of a state by state breakdown of how many AstraZeneca vaccines have been administered in Australia? I know the total doses is over 10 million. But I can’t find a state by state breakdown.

Andrews claimed Victoria used the most. Is that actually true?

There is a chart on page 13 in the PDF below. It doesn't show the exact number of vaccines but the chart clearly shows the porportion of AZ is far higher in VIC than elsewhere in the country.

https://www.health.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/2021/10/covid-19-vaccine-rollout-update-20-october-2021.pdf

 

[Ian4]

There is a chart on page 13 in the PDF below. It doesn't show the exact number of vaccines but the chart clearly shows the porportion of AZ is far higher in VIC than elsewhere in the country.

https://www.health.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/2021/10/covid-19-vaccine-rollout-update-20-october-2021.pdf

beautiful, thank you.

on another note, Victoria administered 101,000 doses yesterday compared to 73,000 in NSW. 5 days in a row.

 

[Redford]

Yeah, I'm thinking a bit longer given the supplies and the priority to get the first 2 jabs to as many as possible.

Also, we will need to wait for ATAGI to work out what vax those who have had AZ get given we are no longer making AZ at CSL. Still looking at what is happening overseas to get some idea of what is the best combo. Plus, I presume there is more research happening to try and make the vaccinations even better.

So, I'm thinking more Feb/March 2022 but it will certainly be somewhere around December to March.

DS

Feb March will be too late. That’ll leave 2nd dosers from July and earlier basically with very little protection given the wane rate. Already becoming a problem overseas.

Fading vaccine immunity threatens Britain’s restriction-free co-existence with COVID-19

The “unusual and slightly worrying” situation looms as a test of the government’s determination keep its economy and society functioning as normal.

www.theage.com.au

 

[Sintiger]

Yeah, I'm thinking a bit longer given the supplies and the priority to get the first 2 jabs to as many as possible.

Also, we will need to wait for ATAGI to work out what vax those who have had AZ get given we are no longer making AZ at CSL. Still looking at what is happening overseas to get some idea of what is the best combo. Plus, I presume there is more research happening to try and make the vaccinations even better.

So, I'm thinking more Feb/March 2022 but it will certainly be somewhere around December to March.

DS

My understating is that ATAGI advice is imminent DS.
First priority will be healthcare workers as well as the vulnerable like aged care and disability.
We also have to deal with the 12-16 age group very soon

 

[eZyT]

Feb March will be too late. That’ll leave 2nd dosers from July and earlier basically with very little protection given the wane rate.

I read the wane rate is about 2% efficacy/ month?

so let say your 90% keeping you out of hospital after 2nd dose,

you're gonna be 75% in a year, assuming it's linear.

have I got that right?

 

[Redford]

I read the wane rate is about 2% efficacy/ month?

so let say your 90% keeping you out of hospital after 2nd dose,

you're gonna be 75% in a year, assuming it's linear.

have I got that right?

From the RACPG.

“Protection against symptomatic disease caused by the Delta variant peaked in the first weeks after the second dose, then fell to 47.3% and 69.7% beyond 20 weeks for AstraZeneca and Pfizer respectively. The study suggested efficacy declined more steeply for those aged over 65.”