Coronavirus | PUNT ROAD END | Richmond Tigers Forum
  • IMPORTANT // Please look after your loved ones, yourself and be kind to others. If you are feeling that the world is too hard to handle there is always help - I implore you not to hesitate in contacting one of these wonderful organisations Lifeline and Beyond Blue ... and I'm sure reaching out to our PRE community we will find a way to help. T.

Coronavirus

LeeToRainesToRoach

Tiger Legend
Jun 4, 2006
33,186
11,546
Melbourne

‘We have beaten third wave,’ says PM (paywalled)​

Prime Minister Scott Morrison has emerged emerges from national cabinet saying ‘we have beaten the third wave’, but there’ll be no changes to international quarantine capacity.

Mr Morrison has confirmed no changes will be made to caps to incoming international arrivals.

National Cabinet will consider the caps again on February 15.

Mr Morrison said $20 million had been spent from a special fund to help Australians overseas facing financial hardship.

More than 40,000 Australians remain stranded overseas.

Mr Morrison welcomed Emirates announcing it will resume incoming flights to Australia.

Emirates will resume passenger flights to Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane from next week after they were temporarily suspended.

“We think it’s great,” he said.

“Remember, it’s not just those who are coming on these flights. These flights also carry important supplies. There’s freight involved in these air services and they’re going into our major capital cities. And that’s important for supply chains for a whole range of goods and services”
 
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LeeToRainesToRoach

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Jun 4, 2006
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Alan Tudge dashes university hopes for big foreign student intake (paywalled)​

Australia’s universities have been warned by new Education Minister Alan Tudge that it will be “very difficult” to get significant numbers of foreign students back on campus this year, amid fears the COVID-ravaged sector will lose up to $10bn from the closed international border.

In his first interview since Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s cabinet reshuffle in December, Mr Tudge also said he was determined to put Australian schools back on track after a horror year of lockdowns and online learning for students and parents.

Another priority would be finding new ways to commercialise university research.

Hopes of foreign students returning to university this semester have been dashed in recent weeks by national cabinet’s tightening of international arrival caps and Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews – whose state’s biggest export is education – saying it was “frankly not possible” to get thousands of students into Australia.

Mr Tudge, previously the acting immigration minister and population, cities and urban infrastructure minister, told The Australian there would be significant challenges to revive the foreign student sector by year’s end.

“It’s going to be very difficult,” he said on Thursday. “Our priority is ensuring that Australians can get home and Australians are kept safe from the virus.

“Obviously we’ll keep a close eye on this week-by-week and month-by-month and at all times guided by the health advice.”

The education sector expects an $8bn loss in tertiary fees in semester one alone if no foreign students are allowed into Australia. That figure rises to $10bn if there are no international students this year. The student cohort contributes $40bn to the broader economy.

More than 12,000 jobs have already been lost on campuses and higher education experts predict 2021 will be worse than last year if international student fees cannot prop up university research and teaching.

Former Australian Catholic University vice-chancellor Greg Craven predicted in The Australian this month that the nation’s universities would crash out of the top world 100 tertiary rankings due to the COVID-19 crisis.

Mr Tudge said he hoped Australian research universities would hold their top 100 research ranks but made clear he wanted the higher education sector to also focus on training and teaching the nation’s youth.

“I hope that universities can stay in the top 100 this year,” he said. “That will in large part be driven by the research output, particularly from the half a dozen universities already there.

“But that is just one dimension of universities as well. Universities are also there to educate Australian students and I want to ensure they continue to do a good job.”

Mr Tudge is also keen to ensure the government is leading on ensuring school-age students have a better year than 2020.

Millions of children were forced to learn online for at least half of last year and in Victoria, Mr Tudge’s home state, school students spent months longer at home due to the second COVID-19 lockdown.

Mr Tudge said he was confident schools would be open during all of 2021. The closure of schools is a state responsibility.

“It is so critical for kids to be back as much as humanly possible at school this year,” he said. “Going into the new school year, I am concerned about the impacts of kids not being in school for much of last year due to COVID.

“I know the state and territories share this (concern), and together we need to ensure no kid is falling behind or indeed has fallen out of school because of this.”

Mr Tudge said he wanted to lead a post-COVID revival of school standards, partly by improving teacher training in universities. “According to the international standards, a 15 year-old has fallen behind by as much as a year compared to a 15 year-old 20 years ago,” he said.

“We’ve got a role clearly in the funding which we’re stepping up to, in the curriculum. But importantly in teacher training courses in universities. Teacher quality is one of the most important drivers of increased standards.”

Mr Tudge faces a myriad of challenges in the universities space, from increasing foreign interference to freedom of speech.

He said universities had more work to do to prevent foreign interference after revelations China had recruited more than 300 scientists and scholars – and perhaps as many as 600 – at Australian tertiary and government research institutions through its talent recruitment programs.

“There is definitely a need to do more on foreign interference in the university space,” he said.

“We’ve outlined foreign interference guidelines for the university sector and they’re working through that, but this is going to be an ongoing issue.”

Mr Tudge said he would continue pushing institutions to uphold free speech on campus, after Mr Morrison was told by a mining executive on his regional Queensland tour this week that mining students were being “heckled” at university.

“We’re very serious about freedom of speech on campus,” he said. “Many universities are also taking this seriously, but there is still work to do on this.”

Mr Tudge said he wanted to have a new model for commercialising university research by the end of the year to help turbocharge the economic recovery. Australian universities have long failed to keep up with US and European research success.
 

DavidSSS

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Dec 11, 2017
10,525
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Melbourne
If Tudge wants Australian universities to stay high in the rankings then they need to fund them properly. The whole reason that the universities are so reliant on income from international students is the lack of funding.

Of course there remains the issue with the rankings, they are based on research output and have little or nothing to do with teaching quality, success of graduates or the like. But the universities are scared of the marketing loss if they fall down rankings.

Universities are offering to quarantine students in colleges but it is hard to see how they could do this in the numbers which would be required. Online learning is not the same and not really sustainable as a way to attract students to study at an Australian university.

It really is a mess and lots of local businesses are going under after losing income from students living here for a few years.

DS
 
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LeeToRainesToRoach

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Jun 4, 2006
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Melbourne
Too early to draw conclusions from Wuhan: WHO (paywalled)

The World Health Organisation has said it is too early to draw any conclusions from its mission to Wuhan as to whether the coronavirus pandemic originated in China.

A team of WHO experts arrived in Wuhan on January 14 to start investigations into the beginnings of the virus, more than a year after the first cases were detected in the city.

Having now completed a two-week quarantine, the investigation is now underway. Beijing has insinuated that the pandemic started outside of its borders, despite a widespread understanding that it started within the country.

“All hypotheses are on the table. And it is definitely too early to come to a conclusion of exactly where this virus started, either within or without China,” said WHO emergencies director Michael Ryan.

“There are different... scientific observations in different parts of the world... all of that is very important, because it builds up a picture,” he told a press conference in Geneva.

However, he added: “This is a big jigsaw puzzle and you cannot tell what the image says by looking at one piece in a 10,000-piece jigsaw puzzle.”

The virus has killed more than two million people so far, been contracted by tens of millions of others and taken a massive toll on the global economy.

“Let’s step back, let’s follow the evidence, let’s follow the science. Our team are on the ground, they are having a good experience working with our Chinese colleagues. We are working through the data,” said Mr Ryan.

- - - - -

But one of the WHO investigators has already made up his mind.

PETER DASZAK: The idea that this virus escaped from a lab is just pure baloney. It’s simply not true. I’ve been working with that lab for 15 years. And the samples collected were collected by me and others in collaboration with our Chinese colleagues. They’re some of the best scientists in the world. There was no viral isolate in the lab. There was no cultured virus that’s anything related to SARS coronavirus 2. So it’s just not possible.

https://www.democracynow.org/2020/4/16/peter_daszak_coronavirus

- - - - -

Note also that invitations to apply for the investigative team were only sent to members of a closed WHO group known as GOARN. Pretty obvious that the WHO investigation will effectively be a mission to restore China's reputation.
 

LeeToRainesToRoach

Tiger Legend
Jun 4, 2006
33,186
11,546
Melbourne

One in three COVID patients in UK readmitted within five months


Nearly a third of all patients discharged from hospital after surviving coronavirus were readmitted within five months and more than one in 10 died, according to fresh research in Britain exploring the deadly legacy of "long COVID".

The new insight was released amid signs Britain's latest national lockdown may have caused the second wave to peak.

Confirmed cases have been falling slowly for the past week and the number of people being hospitalised is flatlining in some areas. However deaths continue to rise sharply at a rate which could tip the United Kingdom's official toll above 100,000 by early next month.

Health Secretary Matt Hancock on Monday said more than 37,000 people were being treated in UK hospitals for COVID-19 - the highest number seen during the pandemic. One person is admitted every 30 seconds as a much more transmissible strain of the disease spreads across the UK.

But research by Leicester University and the Office for National Statistics released on Monday suggests the health system will remain under pressure for many months even after its current patients are discharged.

Of 47,780 COVID-19 patients discharged from British hospitals between January and September 2020, 29.4 per cent were re-admitted within five months and 12.3 per cent died.

They were readmitted at a rate 3.5 times higher than other hospital outpatients.

"With over three million people in the UK having tested positive for COVID-19 at the time of writing and many more who had the disease but never received a test, our findings suggest that the long-term burden of COVID-related morbidity on hospitals and broader healthcare systems is likely to be substantial," said lead author Kamlesh Khunti, a professor of primary care diabetes and vascular medicine at Leicester University.

The study, which is yet to be peer-reviewed, found COVID-19 patients discharged from hospitals were diagnosed with heart, liver and kidney complications at a far greater rate than others. Diabetes was also on the rise, he said.

Long COVID is a non-medical term used to describe the growing body of evidence that a severe infection can cause damage to the body long after a person recovers from their initial encounter with the disease.

Separate data from the Office for National Statistics found the coronavirus mortality rate in December was more than 2.5 times higher in the most deprived areas of England than in the least deprived.

The pandemic was the leading cause of death in December 2020 for the second consecutive month in England as well as Wales, where it accounted for 27.4 per cent of all deaths.

Hancock said the UK had vaccinated nearly 4.1 million people since December. Over half of those aged 80 and above have been given at least one of two doses.

"We are currently vaccinating more than double the rate per person per day than any other country in Europe," he said.
 
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123cups

Tiger Champion
May 1, 2016
3,099
4,076
I haven’t been keeping up with the latest information, but wanted to check what you guys think about this basic expectation:

1. 80% of us will need to catch it eventually, it’s just a matter of whether we’ve taken a vaccine or not to mask our symptoms for when that happens.

2. The longer it takes for 80% of us to catch it, the higher the risk of new strains mutating and spreading.

Therefore, it’s safest for most of us to catch it ASAP, preferably while vaccinated to mask symptoms. Isolate the most at risk during each wave.

Is the above fair, flawed, or completely off the mark?
 

123cups

Tiger Champion
May 1, 2016
3,099
4,076
Too early to draw conclusions from Wuhan: WHO (paywalled)

The World Health Organisation has said it is too early to draw any conclusions from its mission to Wuhan as to whether the coronavirus pandemic originated in China.

A team of WHO experts arrived in Wuhan on January 14 to start investigations into the beginnings of the virus, more than a year after the first cases were detected in the city.

Having now completed a two-week quarantine, the investigation is now underway. Beijing has insinuated that the pandemic started outside of its borders, despite a widespread understanding that it started within the country.

“All hypotheses are on the table. And it is definitely too early to come to a conclusion of exactly where this virus started, either within or without China,” said WHO emergencies director Michael Ryan.

“There are different... scientific observations in different parts of the world... all of that is very important, because it builds up a picture,” he told a press conference in Geneva.

However, he added: “This is a big jigsaw puzzle and you cannot tell what the image says by looking at one piece in a 10,000-piece jigsaw puzzle.”

The virus has killed more than two million people so far, been contracted by tens of millions of others and taken a massive toll on the global economy.

“Let’s step back, let’s follow the evidence, let’s follow the science. Our team are on the ground, they are having a good experience working with our Chinese colleagues. We are working through the data,” said Mr Ryan.

- - - - -

But one of the WHO investigators has already made up his mind.

PETER DASZAK: The idea that this virus escaped from a lab is just pure baloney. It’s simply not true. I’ve been working with that lab for 15 years. And the samples collected were collected by me and others in collaboration with our Chinese colleagues. They’re some of the best scientists in the world. There was no viral isolate in the lab. There was no cultured virus that’s anything related to SARS coronavirus 2. So it’s just not possible.

https://www.democracynow.org/2020/4/16/peter_daszak_coronavirus

- - - - -

Note also that invitations to apply for the investigative team were only sent to members of a closed WHO group known as GOARN. Pretty obvious that the WHO investigation will effectively be a mission to restore China's reputation.

I’m biased pro-China, so keep that in mind, but I don’t understand why it matters exactly where the virus originated.

The only hidden assumption that strikes me as relevant now would be if China intentionally disrupted the world to gain power, which I find ridiculous.

If the virus unintentionally made it’s way out of the lab, then understanding how that happened could prevent a reoccurrence in the future, but that’s a scientific question that will continually be asked and answered regardless of the WHO’s involvement.

If the assumption is China should compensate the world, then I find that equally ridiculous and more than likely a Western attempt to capitalise on the pandemic as an excuse to reduce the power of their rival - which makes us the political bad guys.

I don’t understand the unspoken aspect behind these investigations.

What’s the honest motivation on our behalf?
 
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AngryAnt

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Nov 25, 2004
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Looking for someone to blame for mismanagement of Covid at home is part of the motivation.
 

mrposhman

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Oct 6, 2013
17,856
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One in three COVID patients in UK readmitted within five months


Nearly a third of all patients discharged from hospital after surviving coronavirus were readmitted within five months and more than one in 10 died, according to fresh research in Britain exploring the deadly legacy of "long COVID".

The new insight was released amid signs Britain's latest national lockdown may have caused the second wave to peak.

Confirmed cases have been falling slowly for the past week and the number of people being hospitalised is flatlining in some areas. However deaths continue to rise sharply at a rate which could tip the United Kingdom's official toll above 100,000 by early next month.

Health Secretary Matt Hancock on Monday said more than 37,000 people were being treated in UK hospitals for COVID-19 - the highest number seen during the pandemic. One person is admitted every 30 seconds as a much more transmissible strain of the disease spreads across the UK.

But research by Leicester University and the Office for National Statistics released on Monday suggests the health system will remain under pressure for many months even after its current patients are discharged.

Of 47,780 COVID-19 patients discharged from British hospitals between January and September 2020, 29.4 per cent were re-admitted within five months and 12.3 per cent died.

They were readmitted at a rate 3.5 times higher than other hospital outpatients.

"With over three million people in the UK having tested positive for COVID-19 at the time of writing and many more who had the disease but never received a test, our findings suggest that the long-term burden of COVID-related morbidity on hospitals and broader healthcare systems is likely to be substantial," said lead author Kamlesh Khunti, a professor of primary care diabetes and vascular medicine at Leicester University.

The study, which is yet to be peer-reviewed, found COVID-19 patients discharged from hospitals were diagnosed with heart, liver and kidney complications at a far greater rate than others. Diabetes was also on the rise, he said.

Long COVID is a non-medical term used to describe the growing body of evidence that a severe infection can cause damage to the body long after a person recovers from their initial encounter with the disease.

Separate data from the Office for National Statistics found the coronavirus mortality rate in December was more than 2.5 times higher in the most deprived areas of England than in the least deprived.

The pandemic was the leading cause of death in December 2020 for the second consecutive month in England as well as Wales, where it accounted for 27.4 per cent of all deaths.

Hancock said the UK had vaccinated nearly 4.1 million people since December. Over half of those aged 80 and above have been given at least one of two doses.

"We are currently vaccinating more than double the rate per person per day than any other country in Europe," he said.

I think this is really key from an Australian point of view. We have done a great job in controlling the virus, and those both overseas and here are now starting to see the long term impacts that no-one had any idea of what they could be. No-one knows what impact Covid-19 whether in its deadly form, or is long term damaging form (potentially) will have on mortality rates, quality of life for those that recover and the important impact on life expectancy. From an economic POV, what affect will Covid have on future levels of sick leave / medical funding for ongoing conditions.

I'm very happy to live here and am happy that we have actually focused directly on protecting the nation from this.

Just on the UK, remember back in August they had roughly similar numbers of new cases per day as we were having in Victoria. Look at where they are now. As a pom I'm as much embarrassed by the way the UK government have stumbled their way through a very inadequate response as I am proud of the way that we have dealt with it in Australia (mainly at a state rather than federal level). Yesterday I was reading that the number of patients in the UK that were on ventilators had increased from about 1300 a month ago to over 4000 yesterday. Thats a massive increase and why they are rushing towards vaccination. I'm still unsure why the government are so focused on getting Aussies vaccinated sooner rather than later, there is little harm and a lot of information to gain by waiting a few months.

BTW my dad and sister (who has underlying lung conditions) are due to be vaccinated next in the UK groupings so hopefully there will be no complications.
 
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IanG

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Sep 27, 2004
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I haven’t been keeping up with the latest information, but wanted to check what you guys think about this basic expectation:

1. 80% of us will need to catch it eventually, it’s just a matter of whether we’ve taken a vaccine or not to mask our symptoms for when that happens.

2. The longer it takes for 80% of us to catch it, the higher the risk of new strains mutating and spreading.

Therefore, it’s safest for most of us to catch it ASAP, preferably while vaccinated to mask symptoms. Isolate the most at risk during each wave.

Is the above fair, flawed, or completely off the mark?

This seems to hue closely to the herd immunity idea which has been shown to be flawed.
 
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AngryAnt

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Nov 25, 2004
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So, I thought I would risk the entire Australian economy and head back to Sunny Melbourne. About 10 days ago the embassy in Jakarta emailed saying there were places on a flight back direct to Melbourne, so took the plunge and got on it. I was lucky, there were economy spaces so didn't have to fork out for business class at 10K a pop like people in the ME or Europe apparently have to. I'm still working back into Indonesia virtually, in quarantine (or detention as VicGov calls it) but we have clients in Melbourne also so will try to gradually switch across.

Very strict protocols at airport and hotel - multiple quick interviews with doctors, psychiatrists and bored flunkies reading the relevant Vic legislation. I got lucky with the hotel, Intercontinental so room is good and nothing wrong with the food at all. Others got the Holiday Inn which apparently is a bit of a dive with small windows. I've basically been in quarantine for most of the last year so I don't see what the big fuss is about to be honest. Mind you, knowing friends and family are very close but you can't see them makes it harder somehow. Was PCR tested once in Indo before I left, twice in Detention so far. Negatory!

Good to be back, hopefully see some of you at the footy this year. Can't wait for the first beer when I get out of this place.
 
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123cups

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May 1, 2016
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This seems to hue closely to the herd immunity idea which has been shown to be flawed.

What I'm trying to do is understand the long-term outlook, because to me it looks like we're going for herd immunity. Logically, here's how I'm breaking it down.

Either:
1. We kill the virus
2. The virus runs it's course then lingers
3. The virus runs it's course then disappears
4. Or, the virus kills all humans

For Option 1 to happen, it would involve a future discovery of a full cure. Very unlikely to happen from current knowledge, and scientific breakthroughs in new areas of knowledge cannot be predicted.

Option 2: Covid-19 mutates slower than the influenza virus, so I'm assuming option 2 is less likely. This option involves a yearly vaccination and no end point.

Option 3: Requires everybody to catch Covid within a shorter timespan, or at least, short enough that the virus doesn't mutate into something too different. A growing percentage of the population will eventually develop enough immunity to restrict the virus' ability to spread. Current vaccines allow this to happen with less suffering. I'm guessing it's reasonably likely to result in the eradication of Covid within a few years.

Option 4: Wouldn't happen with the current strains anyway, but theoretically possible in the future. A virus has always been humanity's number one threat to extinction.

If herd immunity through vaccination isn't the current long-term strategy, then what is the long-term strategy? How else could the world eradicate covid within say, 5 years?
 
Last edited:

AngryAnt

Tiger Legend
Nov 25, 2004
27,017
14,794
Logically, here's how I'm breaking it down.

Either:
1. We kill the virus
2. The virus runs it's course then lingers
3. The virus runs it's course then disappears
4. Or, the virus kills all humans

For Option 1 to happen, it would involve a future discovery of a full cure. Very unlikely to happen from current knowledge, and scientific breakthroughs in new areas of knowledge cannot be predicted.

Option 2: Covid-19 mutates slower than the influenza virus, so I'm assuming option 2 is less likely. This option involves a yearly vaccination and no end point.

Option 3: Requires everybody to catch Covid within a shorter timespan (before the virus mutates). Current vaccines allow this to happen with less suffering. I'm guessing it's reasonably likely to result in the eradication of Covid within a few years.

Option 4: Wouldn't happen with the current strains anyway, but theoretically possible in the future. A virus has always been humanity's number one threat to extinction.

If herd immunity through vaccination isn't the current long-term strategy, then what is the long-term strategy? How else could the world eradicate covid within say, 5 years?

Likely (2) I reckon Cups. It's unlikely we will ever eradicate this virus - it will hang around like other corona type viruses, or the flu virus. We'll develop enough immunity that it is even less likely to kill us, we'll coexist with it, maybe annual vaccines will be necessary.
 

LeeToRainesToRoach

Tiger Legend
Jun 4, 2006
33,186
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Melbourne
I’m biased pro-China, so keep that in mind, but I don’t understand why it matters exactly where the virus originated.

The only hidden assumption that strikes me as relevant now would be if China intentionally disrupted the world to gain power, which I find ridiculous.
Either all possibilities are on the table or they aren't, but I don't think even pro-lab theorists have suggested a deliberate release of the virus.
 

LeeToRainesToRoach

Tiger Legend
Jun 4, 2006
33,186
11,546
Melbourne
I haven’t been keeping up with the latest information, but wanted to check what you guys think about this basic expectation:

1. 80% of us will need to catch it eventually, it’s just a matter of whether we’ve taken a vaccine or not to mask our symptoms for when that happens.

2. The longer it takes for 80% of us to catch it, the higher the risk of new strains mutating and spreading.

Therefore, it’s safest for most of us to catch it ASAP, preferably while vaccinated to mask symptoms. Isolate the most at risk during each wave.

Is the above fair, flawed, or completely off the mark?
Not sure of the answers except that I don't think it's a good idea to catch it. Doesn't the vaccine stimulate the immune system to fight the virus off before it can take hold? If so then no (regular) vaccination, no immunity. If everyone is vaccinated then the virus will die off, but health care in large swathes of the world isn't what it is in Australia. Therefore the virus will perhaps survive in some regions and thus remain an eternal threat.

Booster vaccinations for life? Someone will make a shitload of money, but hopefully we can avoid that.
 

123cups

Tiger Champion
May 1, 2016
3,099
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Not sure of the answers except that I don't think it's a good idea to catch it. Doesn't the vaccine stimulate the immune system to fight the virus off before it can take hold? If so then no (regular) vaccination, no immunity. If everyone is vaccinated then the virus will die off, but health care in large swathes of the world isn't what it is in Australia. Therefore the virus will perhaps survive in some regions and thus remain an eternal threat.

Booster vaccinations for life? Someone will make a shitload of money, but hopefully we can avoid that.

That's true about other countries needing to vaccinate at the same time for it to work, otherwise the virus would slowly mutate elsewhere and less people would be immune to such strains. Also, I'm assuming immunity rates gradually decrease over time.

So based on my current understanding, it sounds like our best chance of eradicating the virus would be through herd immunity achieved through globally coordinated vaccination + high international mobility.

I'll need to read up on it some more before coming to any solid conclusions of course.
 

mrposhman

Tiger Legend
Oct 6, 2013
17,856
21,197
What I'm trying to do is understand the long-term outlook, because to me it looks like we're going for herd immunity. Logically, here's how I'm breaking it down.

Either:
1. We kill the virus
2. The virus runs it's course then lingers
3. The virus runs it's course then disappears
4. Or, the virus kills all humans

For Option 1 to happen, it would involve a future discovery of a full cure. Very unlikely to happen from current knowledge, and scientific breakthroughs in new areas of knowledge cannot be predicted.

Option 2: Covid-19 mutates slower than the influenza virus, so I'm assuming option 2 is less likely. This option involves a yearly vaccination and no end point.

Option 3: Requires everybody to catch Covid within a shorter timespan, or at least, short enough that the virus doesn't mutate into something too different. A growing percentage of the population will eventually develop enough immunity to restrict the virus' ability to spread. Current vaccines allow this to happen with less suffering. I'm guessing it's reasonably likely to result in the eradication of Covid within a few years.

Option 4: Wouldn't happen with the current strains anyway, but theoretically possible in the future. A virus has always been humanity's number one threat to extinction.

If herd immunity through vaccination isn't the current long-term strategy, then what is the long-term strategy? How else could the world eradicate covid within say, 5 years?

I would think that 2 and hopefully 3 are the likely scenarios. Yes you are right on herd immunity but as you say its vaccine controlled herd immunity. We know everyone won't take it and other countries will be slower with vaccines (unfortunately a lot of 3rd world countries will fall into this category) which is why I think 2 is more likely than 3. If we come out of this and the number of deaths from Covid-19 / influenza together are similar to influenza in the past, then thats what the aim will be. Ie. people that would have died of influenza in the past may now die of Covid-19 but no ongoing excess deaths above that will be the target.
 

LeeToRainesToRoach

Tiger Legend
Jun 4, 2006
33,186
11,546
Melbourne
So based on my current understanding, it sounds like our best chance of eradicating the virus would be through herd immunity achieved through globally coordinated vaccination + high international mobility.
Even if it was logistically achievable, mass concurrent vaccination with a new vaccine would be a tremendous risk. But if something went wrong it might solve issues of over-population...