Games like we play against the Hawks drive me nuts, and its clear from the PRE comments, I'm not alone! How can we destroy GWS in a grand final just nine months ago and then three games into this season, serve this up? So I did some analysis to distract myself from the pain.
Well, the data says in simple terms that the Hawks came to play, and we didn’t! I hear this from commentators and supporters all the time. In fact I’ve railed against this notion because it feels too simplistic, surely talent and game plans are just as important? Well the data says the latter is true, better teams with better game plans will prevail - but only as long as the intensity is there.
So here is a brief analytics based look at why AFL teams win and lose. If you don't like data, you wont, like this. ;-) I'll pre-empt and say that I can only prove correlation, not causation!
As I stated earlier, in any given game AFL teams have different;
Teams with superior skills will win...if their intensity is close to their opposition. Game plans can beat more talented teams...but only if it is coupled with intensity. More specifically defensive intensity.
In 2020 so far there is a 100% correlation between a superior defensive work rate and winning the game. Defensive work rate can be measured by the average speed of a team's defensive movement over the course of a game.
Let's look at some more detailed defensive work rate data for 2020 games. A good place to look is at underdogs that have beaten solid pre-game favourites...
Dogs 8.5kmh def Giants 7.7kmh Winner +0.8kmh Average Speed in Defence (ASD)
Hawks 8.4kmh def Tigers 7.4kmh Winner +1.0kmh
Suns 8.0kmh def Eagles 7.0kmh Winner +1.0kmh
Roos 7.5kmh def Giants 7.3kmh Winner +0.2kmh
Saints 8.3kmh def Dogs 7.4kmh Winner +0.9kmh
Hawks 7.6kmh def Lions 6.8kmh Winner +0.8kmh
That's a superior 0.8kmh ASD for the winner. Now looking at teams with strong bounce back wins after a disappointing loss, let's take the Hawks and the Dogs comeback upset wins in Round 3.
Hawks Rd 2 def by Cats 6.8kmh ASD
Hawks Rd 3 def Tigers 8.4kmh ASD That's + 1.6kmh!
Dogs Rd 2 def by Saints 7.4kmh ASD
Dogs Rd 3 def Giants 8.5kmh ASD That's +1.1kmh!
Bringing this back to the Tigers, the club regained premiership glory off the back of a superior defensive work rate in 2017. In the 2017 finals where the team took it to another level our average speed in defence was +0.8kmh.
Despite being the most talented team in 2018, with the best game plan, there were bad signs when our defensive work rate dropped off at the tail end of the season. In concerning narrow wins against the Dogs and Cats we were -0.8kmh and -0.3kmh respectively. In the PF loss to the Pies we were also -0.3kmh.
In our 2019 finals campaign we were +0.7kmh faster. Overall last year in wins against quality opposition we were +0.5kmh faster and in bad losses we were -1.0kmh slower.
However, coming back to the 2020 season and what I also discovered is that all work-rate is not the same. That is there is also a 95% correlation between superior offensive work rate and losing the game. In 2020 to date, 19 out of 20 winners have had a slower average speed in attack!
That's right, if players are moving faster in attack than their opposition, they will likely lose.
So when it comes down to prioritising defensive running or offensive running - what are coaches going to prioritise? Defensive running, because that is what wins games.
So if you want to win in modern footy, have a good list, have a solid game plan, but more than anything, bring the defensive work rate!
Well, the data says in simple terms that the Hawks came to play, and we didn’t! I hear this from commentators and supporters all the time. In fact I’ve railed against this notion because it feels too simplistic, surely talent and game plans are just as important? Well the data says the latter is true, better teams with better game plans will prevail - but only as long as the intensity is there.
So here is a brief analytics based look at why AFL teams win and lose. If you don't like data, you wont, like this. ;-) I'll pre-empt and say that I can only prove correlation, not causation!
As I stated earlier, in any given game AFL teams have different;
- game plans (style and structure)
- talent levels (skill, speed, endurance and size)
- Intensity levels (motivation and fitness)
Teams with superior skills will win...if their intensity is close to their opposition. Game plans can beat more talented teams...but only if it is coupled with intensity. More specifically defensive intensity.
In 2020 so far there is a 100% correlation between a superior defensive work rate and winning the game. Defensive work rate can be measured by the average speed of a team's defensive movement over the course of a game.
Let's look at some more detailed defensive work rate data for 2020 games. A good place to look is at underdogs that have beaten solid pre-game favourites...
Dogs 8.5kmh def Giants 7.7kmh Winner +0.8kmh Average Speed in Defence (ASD)
Hawks 8.4kmh def Tigers 7.4kmh Winner +1.0kmh
Suns 8.0kmh def Eagles 7.0kmh Winner +1.0kmh
Roos 7.5kmh def Giants 7.3kmh Winner +0.2kmh
Saints 8.3kmh def Dogs 7.4kmh Winner +0.9kmh
Hawks 7.6kmh def Lions 6.8kmh Winner +0.8kmh
That's a superior 0.8kmh ASD for the winner. Now looking at teams with strong bounce back wins after a disappointing loss, let's take the Hawks and the Dogs comeback upset wins in Round 3.
Hawks Rd 2 def by Cats 6.8kmh ASD
Hawks Rd 3 def Tigers 8.4kmh ASD That's + 1.6kmh!
Dogs Rd 2 def by Saints 7.4kmh ASD
Dogs Rd 3 def Giants 8.5kmh ASD That's +1.1kmh!
Bringing this back to the Tigers, the club regained premiership glory off the back of a superior defensive work rate in 2017. In the 2017 finals where the team took it to another level our average speed in defence was +0.8kmh.
Despite being the most talented team in 2018, with the best game plan, there were bad signs when our defensive work rate dropped off at the tail end of the season. In concerning narrow wins against the Dogs and Cats we were -0.8kmh and -0.3kmh respectively. In the PF loss to the Pies we were also -0.3kmh.
In our 2019 finals campaign we were +0.7kmh faster. Overall last year in wins against quality opposition we were +0.5kmh faster and in bad losses we were -1.0kmh slower.
However, coming back to the 2020 season and what I also discovered is that all work-rate is not the same. That is there is also a 95% correlation between superior offensive work rate and losing the game. In 2020 to date, 19 out of 20 winners have had a slower average speed in attack!
That's right, if players are moving faster in attack than their opposition, they will likely lose.
So when it comes down to prioritising defensive running or offensive running - what are coaches going to prioritise? Defensive running, because that is what wins games.
So if you want to win in modern footy, have a good list, have a solid game plan, but more than anything, bring the defensive work rate!
