Does success in NAB cup point to H&A success? | PUNT ROAD END | Richmond Tigers Forum
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Does success in NAB cup point to H&A success?

Djevv

Djevv

Tiger Champion
Feb 11, 2005
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I was wondering if there was any measurable correlation between these two and so I got out my trusty spreadsheet and accessed H&A ladder (up to round 22) position from 2005 onwards, and then made up a ladder based on pre-season cup results to comare it with. If you lost round 1 you came 12th (ie average of bottom8) if you won but lost in the semi, you came 6th (again a rough average) and then 1-4 were based on the semi & final results. Get it? So I have 4 AFL seasons worth of data.

Anyway I did a regression on it (dead easy on excel) and there was a - drum roll please - 3% correlation!! So, basically, most punters are correct, these games are absolutely meaningless. So my advice - to myself as much as anyone - relax and enjoy the footy being back, but don't take it too seriously ;D.
 
Unless your a Carlton or StKilda fan then the NAB cup is the bees knees
 
se7en said:
Unless your a Carlton or StKilda fan then the NAB cup is the bees knees
Click to expand...

OK, since you asked for it, here is the NAB cup ladder based on success since 2005:

Carlton
Geelong
North
Fremantle
Bulldogs
Hawthorn
Crows
Saints
Brisbane
Melbourne
Port
Collingwood
West Coast
Essendon
Richmond
Sydney

I suppose looking at it you could argue that the more successful sides over the last few years are near the top, until you look at the base of the ladder.
 
I'd rather see some analysis of whether success in the pre-season comp produces any financial benefit. There is prize money involved and potentially an increase in membership levels. Have past winners gone on to record improved bottom lines?
 
mexican_radio said:
I'd rather see some analysis of whether success in the pre-season comp produces any financial benefit. There is prize money involved and potentially an increase in membership levels. Have past winners gone on to record improved bottom lines?
Click to expand...

Agree mexicana - historically speaking this might be a better way to look at it.

This year may also produce some different results as in previous years the Challenge series games were played under normal rules - providing a real incentive to lose. This year all pre-season matches are played under the same (abnormal) rules providing more incentives for clubs to win (or at least less incentive to lose). It wont be win at all costs but there will be more incentive.
 
Is there still a bonus cheque from the afl if you win both the nab cup and the premiership in the same year?

Two glaring examples of why the nab cup means sweet *smile* all is carlton winning twice and finishing bottom of the ladder, and sydney not going past the first round in 5 years but appearing in two grand finals and many finals series in that time.
 
OK, well since I have the data, I though I would play around with someother ideas:

Rather than simply looking at ladder position I decided to look at improvement. To model this I calculated ladder position differential from year to year and plotted that against NAB cup position. This time the results were interesting with a clear positive correlation between winning NAB cup games and ladder improvement (around 15%).
 
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