Drafting Key Forwards

[Bill James]

Have oftened wondered where the key forwards were picked up in the draft. Here is a look through the key forwards playing today where they were drafted.

NA Ricciuto Pre Draft Selection
75 Macgregor
7 Hale 2001
82 Thompson 1997
8 Tarrant 1997
2 Rocca 1994
38 Hansen 2001
R Lynch 2002 Rookie
4 Lucas 1994
38 Fevola 1998
4 Kennedy 2005
3 Brennan 2002
56 Bradshaw 1995
3 Croad 1997
43 Williams 2000
19 Hall 1995
40 O'Loughlin 1994
FS Richardson 1992
16 Pattison 2004
1 Reiwoldt 2000
16 Gherig 1993
NA Tredrea Pre Draft Selection
62 White 2001
41 Playfair 2001
69 McCarthy 2001
105 Grant 1998
11 Johnson 1993
12 Murphy 2003
4 Pavlich 1999
64 Bruce 1999
?? Neitz Help required

There have been some good top 10 picks (Rocca, Riewoldt, Pavlich and should probably include Ricciuto, Tredrea and maybe Lloyd). But 6 good picks in 14 years is pretty thin pickings from top 10's. It is immediately apparent that those 6 were pretty much no brainers (unless you had your heart set on a Fiora.)

There have been some some servicable top 10 picks (Tarrant, Lucas, Croad) but just as many in subsequent rounds (Gherig, Hall, O'Loughlin, Macgregor, Thompson, Fevola, Bradshaw, Williams, Bruce)

It would seem that apart from the obvious talent it is pretty difficult to spot up key forward potential. A suggested recuriting strategy would be to only take obvious class with top 10 picks, and then not worry too much because the second tier forwards are pretty evenly spready from 1st round to 4th round.

 

[Stuart]

Schulz was picked up at 12 also I believe.

 

[pahoffm]

Any chance of putting these into some order, preferably chronological order.
Also,
MacGregor - 1998
Tredrea - 1996
Neitz - 1992

 

[Dyer'ere]

Hey, Bill James. I did a bit of work on this a year or so back. I haven't updated but it may be of use to you in your research.

http://www.puntroadend.com/yabbse/index.php?topic=10264.0

 

[Bill James]

Thanks Jack, before my time. Don't have time for much more research.

Seems to me that unless the kid is an absolute star don't waste a top 10 on him because the picks in the 30-70 range are just as likely to come through.

 

[Richmond United]

Thanks Jack, before my time. Don't have time for much more research.

Seems to me that unless the kid is an absolute star don't waste a top 10 on him because the picks in the 30-70 range are just as likely to come through.

Absolutely.......forget type and go with quality when using early picks. Simple but effective methodology!

 

[Spirit of Jack]

I reckon looking backwards wont give the answer looking forwards. The AFL drafting process has become more sophisticated by the year and the picks are far less speculative than they used to be. There will always be ones out of the box but I reckon many more of the future stars will come out of the top ten picks as time goes on. This trend along with priority picks is why the tanking issue is now an issue where as it wasnt 10 years ago.

 

[nwonash]

James Hird & Chris Grant were very late picks.

However, I think the days of getting a 1st class forward is gone.

There are many quality midfielders out there, but to find a class forward is hard these days.

 

[Tygrys]

James Hird & Chris Grant were very late picks.

However, I think the days of getting a 1st class forward is gone.

There are many quality midfielders out there, but to find a class forward is hard these days.

Their selection was almost a life time ago. Wouldn't happen now, the clubs are too thorough and careful to let tall forwards of that calibre slip through (although with midfielders that's a different matter, you can pick them up almost anywhere in the draft - again another reason to target our first round selection very carefully).

 

[the claw]

i have a key forward id like to see get drafted. well not so much a key forward more like someone whos not backward in coming forward.gretel kil;leen unlike most at the club shed soon be telling the duds where to go.

 

[jb03]

i have a key forward id like to see get drafted. well not so much a key forward more like someone whos not backward in coming forward.gretel kil;leen unlike most at the club shed soon be telling the duds where to go.

She hates blokes claw, she'd only draft chicks.

 

[the claw]

i have a key forward id like to see get drafted. well not so much a key forward more like someone whos not backward in coming forward.gretel kil;leen unlike most at the club shed soon be telling the duds where to go.

She hates blokes claw, she'd only draft chicks.

thats okay jb im sure they would do better than half the girls in our team.

 

[Liverpool]

But do we NEED a big, tall, key-forward?

These days, teams seem to play mobile forwards...the Crows play a combo of Ricciuto, McGregor, Welsh (when fit)....the Bulldogs play Johnson, Robbins, Murphy (when fit)...and the Eagles this season (and add Phil Matera last season) use a combination of Graham, Staker, Hansen, Lynch, Sampi, etc.

The day of the tall, strong marking, 100-goal a season goalkicker is dead....so is this what we really need? or should we stick with more utility/mobile players that can play forward and midfield?

 

[Al Bundy]

Our first draft this year should be used on the best KPP player possible. Chb or CHB type.