Effective Kicks

[The_General]

I noticed Anduril asked about why Pro stats don't have effective kick % on their website, can't answer that question, but I can give you some stats if it's any help.

Here is this year:

Player	Effective Kicks	Effective Handballs
Bowden, Joel	84.7%	82.8%
Bowden, Patrick	80.9%	85.7%
Brown, Nathan	78.5%	92.9%
Casserley, Travis	-	-
Chaffey, Mark	73.5%	92.3%
Coughlan, Mark	76.6%	74.6%
Deledio, Brett	77.4%	77.3%
Foley, Nathan	60.4%	77.6%
Gaspar, Darren	79.3%	73.5%
Graham, Angus	-	-
Hall, Ray	74.4%	89.2%
Hartigan, Brent	75.5%	86.1%
Howat, Cameron	80.4%	100.0%
Hughes, Cleve	75.0%	75.0%
Humm, Jeremy	88.9%	60.0%
Hyde, Chris	81.0%	87.7%
Jackson, Daniel	65.0%	75.0%
Johnson, Kane	79.9%	80.7%
Kellaway, Andrew	81.9%	92.3%
Knobel, Trent	100.0%	66.7%
Krakouer, Andrew	75.2%	80.6%
Limbach, Dean	-	-
McGuane, Luke	50.0%	100.0%
Meyer, Danny	83.0%	90.3%
Moore, Kelvin	77.8%	60.0%
Newman, Chris	83.2%	92.7%
Oakley-nicholls, Jarrad	61.5%	25.0%
Pattison, Adam	72.0%	93.4%
Pettifer, Kayne	79.6%	79.6%
Polo, Dean	81.3%	87.4%
Raines, Andrew	79.9%	81.4%
Richardson, Matthew	76.3%	71.7%
Roach, Thomas	75.0%	80.0%
Rodan, David	52.9%	71.4%
Schulz, Jay	80.4%	50.0%
Simmonds, Troy	75.0%	88.3%
Stafford, Greg	82.0%	82.4%
Tambling, Richard	78.1%	86.2%
Thursfield, Will	-	100.0%
Tivendale, Greg	75.6%	78.1%
Tuck, Shane	73.3%	78.0%
White, Matthew	80.7%	86.8%

Obviously, that doesn't take into consideration different players roles (ie our Rucks are more likely going to grab the ball from the middle and just kick it forwards without being able to size up an appropriate target, whereas a running half back, should have a bit more time to look up field and pick out his man.

Other players (Eg Humm, Knobel, Thursfield, JON and McGuane) have played very few games, and have had little chance to correct a poor start. Others (Like Howat) started out incredibly well, and are just starting to come back to the pack as more games are played.

Makes for some interesting reading nonetheless. I do have some figures from previous years as well, if anyone wanted to know how a particular player has improved/declined over time.


Forgot to mention these stats came out of the AFL Record from Round 21, for those who hadn't got the chance to get a copy.

 

[LeeToRainesToRoach]

Interesting that the defenders (with a couple of exceptions) generally have the better percentages. It used to be the case that if you couldn't kick you were sent to the backline.

 

[The_General]

Probably got a bit of a boost from our kick to kick "tempo" football we played for a reasonable chunk of the second half of the year. Probably a lot of uncontested possessions boosting those numbers up.

 

[Tigers of Old]

Good one General.

However it's a shame the Effective stats aren't part of the Pro-stats website because I do like the average per game function and they only include players with X number of games under their belt.

 

[The_General]

I do have the kicks per game, and could probably work out how many (based off the %) are effective from that. Wouldn't be 100% precise, but would certainly give a guide.

 

[Ian4]

it doesn't matter how much you skew the stats, greg tivendale is still a dud.

interesting that chaffey's handballs are at 92.3%. it obviously doesnt count when he handballs to a player under pressure

 

[The_General]

Probably a small sample of games Ian. He'd played 4 up to that point, and 2 of them were blow outs, so I'd imagine the pressure in those games wouldnt be so intense.

None of the weekend's performance is included in the above.

 

[LeeToRainesToRoach]

Probably got a bit of a boost from our kick to kick "tempo" football we played for a reasonable chunk of the second half of the year. Probably a lot of uncontested possessions boosting those numbers up.

Good point which lies at the heart of statistics. Masses of data need to be interpreted correctly and put into context, and sometimes the conclusion will be that a particular statistic doesn't mean much at all. Classic example is the 'inside 50s' stat - 50m is an arbitrary measure and is used for stats because it's marked on the ground and is relatively easy to record. It's not necessarily more relevant then inside 40s or inside 60s. Brereton might talk rubbish at times but he has a point on this one.

Stats are useful for describing the past but not always accurate at predicting the future. You might analyse 50 years of race results and find that horses racing at Flemington in autumn on wet tracks with 8-letter names and starting from barriers outside 12 show a level-stakes profit of 200%, but because there is no theory or logic behind the stat, it is likely to fail as a wagering strategy.

The correct way to approach statistics is to first have a theory and a possible reason for it (based on logic and experience/observation), collect the relevant stats if they don't already exist, validate (or disprove) the theory and take steps to improve results. With footy stats being such a growth industry, I'm sure clubs have the option of requesting customised stats (or are recording them themselves).

In this case it would clarify things to know each player's effective kicks under pressure/clear, left/right foot, short/long, hits to players on a lead/kicks to a contest etc. in order to assess his effectiveness by foot. If clubs don't have access to these stats at present, I'm sure they will be recording or requesting them in future.

 

[Anduril]

Thanks for that General. :clap :clap
I was particularly interested in effective kicks as we have so many young players who occasionally make an error in disposal...... but I never cringe when Polo gets the ball and it seems the stats bear this out.