Some stats on team experience as measured by games played from 2000-2006:
Diff M MoreW More% LessW Less% D Adv%
-------------------------------------------
50+ 45 32 71.1% 13 28.9% 0 146%
40...<50 61 38 62.3% 23 37.7% 0 65%
30...<40 163 97 59.5% 62 38.0% 4 56%
20...<30 239 142 59.4% 96 40.2% 1 48%
10...<20 329 156 47.4% 171 52.0% 2 -10%
0...<10 395 209 52.9% 183 46.7% 3 14%
-------------------------------------------
Totals 1232 674 55.1% 548 44.9% 10 23%
Diff - difference in average games per player
M - matches
MoreW - wins by more experienced side
More% - win % "" ""
LessW - wins by less experience side
Less% - less % "" ""
D - draws
Adv% - percentage advantage to the more experienced side (More%/Less%)-1
These figures include all home-away-games but not finals.
Apart from an anomaly in the 10-20 games difference range, the bigger the experience advantage a side has had, the better its winning strike rate. When the difference is 20 games+, the strike rate is 59% greater for the more experienced side.
Richmond home-and-away matches 2000-2006
Diff M W L Win%
--------------------------
50+ 0 0 0 -
40...<50 3 3 0 100.0%
30...<40 15 5 10 33.3%
20...<30 19 9 10 47.4%
10...<20 21 10 11 47.6%
0...<10 29 13 16 44.8%
-10...<0 29 11 18 37.9%
-20...<-10 14 7 7 50.0%
-30...<-20 14 4 10 28.6%
-40...<-30 7 2 5 28.6%
-50...<-40 2 0 2 0.0%
<-50 1 1 0 100.0%
--------------------------
Totals 154 65 89 42.2%
+Diff 87 40 47 46.0%
-Diff 67 25 42 37.3%
Rebuilding our list is a balancing act that requires some caution. It's not as simple as culling a large number of senior players and playing the kids. Interestingly the match where we conceded the most experience (57 games) was this year's Adelaide game which required extraordinary tactics to win.
2007 is pretty much a crossroads for our list - how many of Foley, Tambling, Pattison, White, Meyer, Howat, Hughes, Oakley-Nicholls, Thursfield and Schulz (assuming that Deledio, Raines and Polo will make the grade long-term) are able to establish themselves in the next year or two will determine whether we are a chance around 2009 or whether they need to be turned over in favour of more youngsters, in which case we will be overtaken by the clubs below us on the ladder.
Average games per player, per match 2000-2006
Year RAvg Rank Min Max AFLAvg Top8Avg PremAvg
-------------------------------------------------
2000 92.3 8th 82.6 99.5 89.3 96.5 96.3
2001 109.8 3rd 98.8 123.0 90.1 96.0 102.3
2002 98.4 5th 91.5 108.6 91.8 93.6 119.2
2003 95.5 8th 82.1 107.2 95.6 100.5 141.1
2004 92.1 11th 73.8 106.5 95.8 97.7 101.1
2005 107.0 5th 83.5 117.4 100.6 101.7 101.1
2006 87.0 14th 71.6 95.1 100.3 110.2 ?
-------------------------------------------------
RAvg - Richmond's average games per player
Rank - AFL rank from 1-16
Min - lowest average in any match for the season
Max - highest average " "
AFLAvg - AFL average
Top8Avg - average for top 8 sides
PremAvg - average for premiers
With the loss of over 540 games of experience in Stafford, Kellaway and Chaffey, our average is not likely to increase next year. 2007 could require a lot of patience.
Interestingly the Brisbane sides of 2003-04 were easily the two most experienced (average around 140 games, 3rd highest i 120). The youngest lists were Fremantle and Port in 2000, both about 60 games.
The AFL average has increased each year and perhaps peaked in 2005. The top eight teams this season have a hefty advantage in experience compared with the bottom eight, but in a few years the ladder could be more or less reversed as the bottom eight sides have a considerable lead in terms of building their lists for the long-term.
Admittedly, average games is a rough-and-ready measure, e.g. our 2005 average was boosted by Mark Graham.
Diff M MoreW More% LessW Less% D Adv%
-------------------------------------------
50+ 45 32 71.1% 13 28.9% 0 146%
40...<50 61 38 62.3% 23 37.7% 0 65%
30...<40 163 97 59.5% 62 38.0% 4 56%
20...<30 239 142 59.4% 96 40.2% 1 48%
10...<20 329 156 47.4% 171 52.0% 2 -10%
0...<10 395 209 52.9% 183 46.7% 3 14%
-------------------------------------------
Totals 1232 674 55.1% 548 44.9% 10 23%
Diff - difference in average games per player
M - matches
MoreW - wins by more experienced side
More% - win % "" ""
LessW - wins by less experience side
Less% - less % "" ""
D - draws
Adv% - percentage advantage to the more experienced side (More%/Less%)-1
These figures include all home-away-games but not finals.
Apart from an anomaly in the 10-20 games difference range, the bigger the experience advantage a side has had, the better its winning strike rate. When the difference is 20 games+, the strike rate is 59% greater for the more experienced side.
Richmond home-and-away matches 2000-2006
Diff M W L Win%
--------------------------
50+ 0 0 0 -
40...<50 3 3 0 100.0%
30...<40 15 5 10 33.3%
20...<30 19 9 10 47.4%
10...<20 21 10 11 47.6%
0...<10 29 13 16 44.8%
-10...<0 29 11 18 37.9%
-20...<-10 14 7 7 50.0%
-30...<-20 14 4 10 28.6%
-40...<-30 7 2 5 28.6%
-50...<-40 2 0 2 0.0%
<-50 1 1 0 100.0%
--------------------------
Totals 154 65 89 42.2%
+Diff 87 40 47 46.0%
-Diff 67 25 42 37.3%
Rebuilding our list is a balancing act that requires some caution. It's not as simple as culling a large number of senior players and playing the kids. Interestingly the match where we conceded the most experience (57 games) was this year's Adelaide game which required extraordinary tactics to win.
2007 is pretty much a crossroads for our list - how many of Foley, Tambling, Pattison, White, Meyer, Howat, Hughes, Oakley-Nicholls, Thursfield and Schulz (assuming that Deledio, Raines and Polo will make the grade long-term) are able to establish themselves in the next year or two will determine whether we are a chance around 2009 or whether they need to be turned over in favour of more youngsters, in which case we will be overtaken by the clubs below us on the ladder.
Average games per player, per match 2000-2006
Year RAvg Rank Min Max AFLAvg Top8Avg PremAvg
-------------------------------------------------
2000 92.3 8th 82.6 99.5 89.3 96.5 96.3
2001 109.8 3rd 98.8 123.0 90.1 96.0 102.3
2002 98.4 5th 91.5 108.6 91.8 93.6 119.2
2003 95.5 8th 82.1 107.2 95.6 100.5 141.1
2004 92.1 11th 73.8 106.5 95.8 97.7 101.1
2005 107.0 5th 83.5 117.4 100.6 101.7 101.1
2006 87.0 14th 71.6 95.1 100.3 110.2 ?
-------------------------------------------------
RAvg - Richmond's average games per player
Rank - AFL rank from 1-16
Min - lowest average in any match for the season
Max - highest average " "
AFLAvg - AFL average
Top8Avg - average for top 8 sides
PremAvg - average for premiers
With the loss of over 540 games of experience in Stafford, Kellaway and Chaffey, our average is not likely to increase next year. 2007 could require a lot of patience.
Interestingly the Brisbane sides of 2003-04 were easily the two most experienced (average around 140 games, 3rd highest i 120). The youngest lists were Fremantle and Port in 2000, both about 60 games.
The AFL average has increased each year and perhaps peaked in 2005. The top eight teams this season have a hefty advantage in experience compared with the bottom eight, but in a few years the ladder could be more or less reversed as the bottom eight sides have a considerable lead in terms of building their lists for the long-term.
Admittedly, average games is a rough-and-ready measure, e.g. our 2005 average was boosted by Mark Graham.
