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Flag odds & what they say

  • Thread starter Thread starter Turbo Tiger
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Turbo Tiger

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As we approach the half way mark of the season, I thought it would be good to look at the premiership odds and what they tell us about every teams fortunes so far this year, and how the most astute judges of all rate them.

For the purpose of this exercise I have ranked teams according to today’s market. I have then placed the odds from the start of the year in brackets, followed by the movement in odds. I have then commented on what I believe these figures mean.

Enjoy, and hope it was interesting…

3.25 WEST COAST (4.60) – minus $1.35 – reigning premier still the best team in the comp
3.70 GEELONG (10) – minus $6.30 – now considered the biggest challenger, improvement enormous
8.50 SYDNEY (8.50) – even – the number one challenger seems to have fallen off the perch
9.00 ADELAIDE (8) – plus $1.00 – slipped slightly but still highly rated
12.00 COLLINGWOOD (28) – minus $16 – a cracking team that keeps winning and is in the hunt again
14.00 HAWTHORN (35) – minus $21 – our second biggest mover considered a jet by the bookies
18.00 ESSENDON (26) – minus $8.00 – seems Sheeds has done it again, definitely in the comp’s top half
23.00 FREMANTLE (6) – plus $17 – where has it all gone wrong, gone from a favourite to outcast so fast
23.00 WESTERN BULLDOGS (9) – plus $14 – seems the wheels have fallen off for now but long way to go
31.00 PORT ADELAIDE (21) – plus $10 – looked so good three weeks ago but can’t match it with the big boys
31.00 ST KILDA (9) – plus $22 – cruelled by injury, poor club culture appears yet again
61.00 KANGAROOS (101) – minus $40 – our biggest mover, by far the greatest spirit in the AFL but it won’t be enough
151.00 BRISBANE (61) – plus $90 – ageing players has taken its toll yet again on this once great outfit
201.00 CARLTON (101) – plus $100 – figures are accurate but don’t tell the truth of a team on the move
251.00 MELBOURNE (17) – plus $234 – injuries didn’t do all this damage and mask a poor list
2501.00 RICHMOND (51) – plus $2450 – this has to be a record, surprised they are still taking bets

NB. Premiership odds were taken from the TAB Sportsbet Victoria website.
 
I think your team is overpriced. They decent odds for the 8, but still too inexperienced for the flag. $14 is not good value.
 
Turbo Tiger said:
14.00 HAWTHORN (35) – minus $21 – our second biggest mover considered a jet by the bookies

Hopefully that price continues to drop, so that I can continue to lay them at Betfair.
 
Turbo Tiger said:
I thought it would be good to look at the premiership odds and what they tell us

14.00 HAWTHORN (35) – minus $21 – our second biggest mover
61.00 KANGAROOS (101) – minus $40 – our biggest mover

They tell us you don't know your arse from a hole in the ground when it comes to betting. The biggest movers are Geelong, West Coast and Collingwood.
 
LeeToRainesToRoach said:
Turbo Tiger said:
I thought it would be good to look at the premiership odds and what they tell us

14.00 HAWTHORN (35) – minus $21 – our second biggest mover
61.00 KANGAROOS (101) – minus $40 – our biggest mover

They tell us you don't know your arse from a hole in the ground when it comes to betting. The biggest movers are Geelong, West Coast and Collingwood.

Quite right you are L2R2R. Under that logic a team firming from $4 into $2 would be the smallest mover.
 
jb03 said:
LeeToRainesToRoach said:
Turbo Tiger said:
I thought it would be good to look at the premiership odds and what they tell us

14.00 HAWTHORN (35) – minus $21 – our second biggest mover
61.00 KANGAROOS (101) – minus $40 – our biggest mover

They tell us you don't know your arse from a hole in the ground when it comes to betting. The biggest movers are Geelong, West Coast and Collingwood.

Quite right you are L2R2R. Under that logic a team firming from $4 into $2 would be the smallest mover.

Looking forward to Turbo Betting as a bookie - should make for some interesting unbalanced books ;)
 
pharace said:
Looking forward to Turbo Betting as a bookie - should make for some interesting unbalanced books ;)

History might repeat, a bookie was killed by an angry mob of punters at Flemington in the early 1900s because he couldn't pay out.
 
LeeToRainesToRoach said:
pharace said:
Looking forward to Turbo Betting as a bookie - should make for some interesting unbalanced books ;)

History might repeat, a bookie was killed by an angry mob of punters at Flemington in the early 1900s because he couldn't pay out.

Not sure about doing that. Don't think they would have got paid out then.
 
jb03 said:
LeeToRainesToRoach said:
pharace said:
Looking forward to Turbo Betting as a bookie - should make for some interesting unbalanced books ;)

History might repeat, a bookie was killed by an angry mob of punters at Flemington in the early 1900s because he couldn't pay out.

Not sure about doing that. Don't think they would have got paid out then.

Geez, you've had about 100 years to think about it and you're still not sure? ;D

You used to be indecisive, but now you're not so sure..................