Forget 2011 - we might all require 2020 vision

[17]

Terry's optimal list year, demographically speaking, was 2011.
As a few reality-check type threads (ditch the "we're not far away" routine, etc) have pointed out, we are quite a distance away. So just how far is that?
Every-one's got their own view on the quality of our list, but obviously we have some serious work to do.
I think our list is the worst positioned because not only is it the shallowest in the competition, but we are starting behind Melbourne on the rebuild program, going into a period where the draft will be severly compromised.
They at least recognised their problem and the need to rebuild, but our brains trust still to this day appear to overrate our list and the huge challenge ahead.
Of the current list, I can get to 22 players that I would keep (being generous), but two of those are veterans and would only be for another 12 months, and about 6-8 of those remaining 20 are honest toilers with average execution skills who would struggle to make a decent side and would not be part of a serious challenger.
So on my reckoning we need to turnover at least half our list as soon as practically possible (bad contracts permitting, etc), but more accurately more than 2/3'rds.
That means an average of at least 10 changes for each of the next 3 years.
The optimal age to extract maximum player performance is around 24-26 years.
Assuming we pick our 18 year olds well, if we have turned over the list appropriately by 2012, we can look forward to the playing group producing maximum output by 2020.
Hope Cotch is still around by then to hoist the cup...

 

[Dyer Disciple]

Clever play on words on the thread title. :hihi

 

[Rosy]

Hope Cotch is still around by then to hoist the cup...

Here's hoping Cotch lives up to the hype on here. It wasn't that long ago Lids was spoken of in such terms and now he cops (unfairly imo) heaps. Trent hasn't exactly set the club on fire yet despite the glimpses he's shown. I don't think it's fair to put any player on a pedestal based on supporter hope and expectation rather than actual performance and output.

Is there a limit on the number of changes a club can make each year? I'm sure we could easily chop 10 but I reckon we'd probably replace some of them with some recycled players...and we don't get them right all that often.

 

[17]

Rosy, my understanding is the amount of turnover is limited by draft choices.
Theoretically we cut 10 and we have 10 picks.
But they'd be the last 5 in the draft and of dubious quality.
The preferred route for experimenting is via the rookie draft where you dont risk two years wages, just one.
The club also has this routine where every year they say the draft is lacking depth past the second round, which is their way of admitting that RFC don't have the recruiting expertise to back ourselves to pick well beyond the second round.
Instead we much prefer to pick up other club's discards, which has a much higher success rate for Richmond - not.
The Cotch is quality and carries hype in excess of his performances to date simply because he is the first genuine player of class to arrive at Punt Road via the ND in decades, and as such stands out like a sore thumb.
I hope he lives up to it too but I won't be bagging him if the other 21 players around him aren't up to his class and drag him down, a la Lids?

 

[The_General]

I think we're likely to see 6-7 go.

For hypotheticals sake, say it's Simmonds, Brown, Johnson (already gone), Pettifer, Polak, Bowden and JON.

2 promotions from rookie to senior list - Nahas and Browne.
Gourdis retained as a rookie.
Silvester released from rookie list.

That leave us 5 to draft onto the senior list. To my understanding, we're looking at taking a full compliment of rookies - 8. Which is 7 on top of Gourdis.

We're a long way from being where we want to be, but with GC17 coming in, we've got 8 months of kids to pick from, as well as VFL/WAFL/SANFL players. I can't see our situation improving in time for 2011.

We still need to move on King, McMahon, Raines, Pattison, Cogs (assuming he doesn't volunteer himself, as I reckon he probably would), Hughes, Schulz. On top of that, Richo is likely to retire in 2010, and cousins ????

Sad times tiger fans. 2014 at the earliest I reckon.