Future projections

[tiger in the night]

Some forward projections for the team. Lets look at likely delisting / retirements up to season 2009 – a year popular with pundits on PRE as to the likely date we will be serious finals contenders. What could our team look like?

Here’s my guess. Assumptions for this exercise are:
- that we will not trade but use all available positions to pick up draftees or rookies
- that we delist / retire an average of 5 players each year

* are new players.

2006 List

Midfielders:
Johnson, Tuck, Foley, Rodan, Hyde, Coughlan, Polo, Humm, Howat, Tivendale, White, Chaffey
Flankers
Pettifer, Brown, Tambling, Deledio, Newman, P Bowden, McGuane, Limbach, Moore, Jackson, Casserley, Meyer, O-Nicholls, Raines, Hartigan, Roach, Hall, J Bowden, Krakouer, Kellaway
Key position
Richardson, Hughes, Gaspar, Schulz, Pattison, Thursfield
Rucks
Stafford, Knobel, Simmonds, Graham

De-listed / retired at end of 2006: Stafford, Humm, Howat, Moore, Krakouer

2007 List

Midfielders
Johnson, Tuck, Foley, Rodan, Hyde, Coughlan, Polo, Tivendale, White, Chaffey, *, *
Flankers
Pettifer, Brown, Tambling, Deledio, Newman, P Bowden, McGuane, Limbach, Jackson, Casserley, Meyer, O-Nicholls, Raines, Hartigan, Roach, Hall, J Bowden, Kellaway, *
Key position
Richardson, Hughes, Gaspar, Schulz, Pattison, Thursfield, *
Rucks
Knobel, Simmonds, Graham, *

De-listed / retired at end of 2007: Gaspar, Chaffey, Limbach, Knobel, Hall

2008 List

Midfielders
Johnson, Tuck, Foley, Rodan, Hyde, Coughlan, Polo, Tivendale, White, *, *, *
Flankers
Pettifer, Brown, Tambling, Deledio, Newman, P Bowden, McGuane, Jackson, Casserley, Meyer, O-Nicholls, Raines, Hartigan, Roach, J Bowden, Kellaway, *, *, *
Key position
Richardson, Hughes, Schulz, Pattison, Thursfield, *, *
Rucks
Simmonds, Graham, *, *

De-listed / retired at end of 2008: Kellaway, Richardson, Rodan, Tivendale, Johnson

2009 List

Midfielders
Tuck, Foley, Hyde, Coughlan, Polo, White, *, *, *, *, *, *
Flankers
Pettifer, Brown, Tambling, Deledio, Newman, P Bowden, McGuane, Jackson, Casserley, Meyer, O-Nicholls, Raines, Hartigan, Roach, J Bowden, *, *, *
Key position
Hughes, Schulz, Pattison, Thursfield, *, *, *, *
Rucks
Simmonds, Graham, *, *

Possible 2009 Team

FB: Raines Thursfield J Bowden
HB: Casserley *KP(06) Newman
C: O-Nicholls *MID(06) *MID(07)
HF: Meyer Schulz P Bowden
FF: Tambling Hughes *KP(07)
R: Simmonds Polo Deledio
INT: Brown *RK(07) Hartigan Pattison

 

[pahoffm]

Well done, Titn,
Interesting view.

Although the conclusions of your review may differ marginally from mine, we are both in agreement that the list will continue to evolve year by year, with approximately 5 players coming off each year and another 5 coming on.

There is a view that we clearly share, being:
1. Missing 2 top class kpps
2. Missing 1, maybe 2, genuine top class midfielders
3. A top class junior ruckman.

Well done on the long term view.

 

[tha8ball]

Great work TITN...however by 2009 i would think Deledio, Tambling, Raines, Newman even Meyer will all be midfielders not flankers.

 

[Tigerfan]

1. Missing 2 top class kpps
2. Missing 1, maybe 2, genuine top class midfielders
3. A top class junior ruckman.

totally, definitely, absolutely

 

[Redford]

I'm projecting I have a 12 beer game tomorrow afternoon. I always perform well against Adelaide. I find their absolute on field superiority drives me to find as much pain relief as possible.

 

[RedanTiger]

Also generally agree TITN, however think Krak is contracted till end 2007 so maybe he and Chaffey could swap on your retire/delist this year. Also think Knobel and Hall will still be middle age talls and may stay at expense of smalls like Rodan and maybe Roach at end of 2007.

In 2009 you have in your list but not in your team
Tuck, Foley, Hyde, Coughlan, White, Pettifer, McGuane, Jackson, Graham and Roach

They could fill some spots
MID(06) - centre - Tuck
MID(07) - wing - White / Hyde
KP(07) - FP - McGuane / Jackson
RK(07) - Graham

While I would agree with your general view on the types to draft, the list of Tuck etc could also be used as trade bait. Too valuable to be delisted but available at a very high premium (eg Thompson, Hay, Richards).

 

[craig]

Bit much expecting P Bowden, Tivendale Rodan and Roach to be at the tigers in 08, especially as Roach may not survive this year with the other 3 all disposable players for mine and not guys who are gonna take the club to A flag, but good effort anyways.

I think up to 11 or 12 changes possibly even one or two more over the next 2 years if we suck badly and finish bottom 3 or 4 will be a mandatory and not unreasonable expectation.

 

[Bill James]

Well done, Titn,
Interesting view.

Although the conclusions of your review may differ marginally from mine, we are both in agreement that the list will continue to evolve year by year, with approximately 5 players coming off each year and another 5 coming on.

There is a view that we clearly share, being:
1. Missing 2 top class kpps
2. Missing 1, maybe 2, genuine top class midfielders
3. A top class junior ruckman.

Well done on the long term view.

Based on conversion rate for draft picks and retirment ages it is impossible to maintain a healthy list with any less than five changes a year. Club needs to cut more 21-22yo players who are not cutting it and churn more players through the system.