Global Warming | PUNT ROAD END | Richmond Tigers Forum
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Global Warming

DavidSSS

Tiger Legend
Dec 11, 2017
10,521
17,873
Melbourne
Gee, who would have thought that a warming climate would lead to longer bushfire seasons, less chance for hazard reduction burns and fires now burning in places where we haven't seen fires for millenia?

Well, the CSIRO for one.

In 2009, yes folks, that's 10 years ago, the CSIRO wrote, in a report to government:
While the impact of climate change is likely to be an increase in the frequency of ‘Extreme’ fire danger days, the impact of climate change on the structure of the forest, fuel availability and thus the behaviour of bushfires is not known. The severity of fire conditions or fire danger is calculated through combining measures of temperature, wind speed, humidity and drought into the Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI), which has been used for many decades. With the likely onset of climate change effects, modifications to aspects of the FFDI, particularly the assumptions regarding the rate of fuel drying, should be considered to better reflect the change in drying conditions in future. Under climate change it is expected that current 'windows' for hazard reduction burning will change and possibly narrow, meaning less opportunity to conduct safe and effective hazard reduction burns.

What do we find happening 10 years after the idiots in Canberra were warned:
  • lengthened fire seasons.
  • an increase in extreme fire danger days.
  • less opportunity to perform hazard reduction burns as the bush is simply too dry to risk these getting out of control.

As Ken Thompson, former Deputy Commissioner of NSW Fire and Rescue has recently written:
For obvious reasons, you can only do prescribed burnings when temperatures are low, humidity is high and winds aren’t too strong. But since it’s hot, dry and windy for more and more months of the year, leading to elevated fire danger, the window for safe burning is shrinking dramatically.

It ain't the greenies who are the reason for less backburning, it is the climate.

We should have started dealing with this decades ago, to quote Ken Thompson agian:
The best time to have taken these steps was decades ago when climate scientists first started issuing warnings that burning coal, oil and gas was producing greenhouse gas emissions and fuelling dangerous climate change.

The second best time would have been April, when senior emergency leaders from every Australian state and territory came together to warn the federal government that climate change was worsening bushfire danger in our country and that we were not prepared.

Unfortunately, successive governments have largely dismissed or ignored these warnings. Even today, we have people disputing the evidence or spreading deliberate misinformation.

And yet we are now told by the morons in government that now is not the time to be talking about climate change and bushfires. Well, April wasn't the time, the past 3 or 4 decades apparently wasn't the time. It is clear that they simply don't want to talk about it at all. Might hurt the interests of those who fund their parties.

It's a disgrace.

Even worse, we live in one of the best locations on the planet to generate renewable energy. We could be creating a booming economy and helping to solve the problem of carbon emissions. Instead, we remain tied to yesterday's energy sources.

DS
 
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eZyT

Tiger Legend
Jun 28, 2019
21,434
25,766
Nailed it DS3.

and that just Chapter 1: Bushfire

there's drought, cyclone, famine, flood, coastal inundation, extinction, refugee chapters too,

and more.

But Morrison is praying for us all.

Monty Python and Cormac McCarthy and Margaret Atwood and Steven King and Dennis Potter and David Lynch and George Orwell and Matt Groening could collaborate in perfect harmony for 10 years and not make this world up.
 
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artball

labels are for canned food
Jul 30, 2013
6,887
6,299
It's not a silly idea. Would assume rangers require a certain level of education, above e.g. holding up a STOP sign on a road crew. You couldn't just make someone a park ranger because they're indigenous and assumed to have an affinitiy with the land.
absolutely. its worked in the NT with great success

Agree with your point Artball, I think you are probably talking about hazard reduction burns there, which are preventative burns to reduce fuel loads before fire season starts. Back burning is controlled burns in front of active fires to stop live fires spreading.
thanks Antman - that's what i meant to write .. i also meant to mention that our bush needs to burn at times, for seeding, etc.. so controlled burn offs for that reason ?
 
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AngryAnt

Tiger Legend
Nov 25, 2004
27,017
14,791
absolutely. its worked in the NT with great success


thanks Antman - that's what i meant to write .. i also meant to mention that our bush needs to burn at times, for seeding, etc.. so controlled burn offs for that reason ?

Yes, absolutely. Natural fires and controlled burns by indigenous people have happened for millenia, and the bush is adapted to that.

Here's another opinion from a guy who put his life on the line fighting fires. Of course, he's a inner city raving loonie so ScoMo can just brush him off.

 
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artball

labels are for canned food
Jul 30, 2013
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A fire fighter mate of mine was not called into the fray even though it was his own community burning. This was because he is a paid firefighter by the state govt.. ! how screwed up is that ?
 

AngryAnt

Tiger Legend
Nov 25, 2004
27,017
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A fire fighter mate of mine was not called into the fray even though it was his own community burning. This was because he is a paid firefighter by the state govt.. ! how screwed up is that ?


Yeah. That's that demarcation thing between the professional fireys and the CFA... not sure how that has shaken out recently but obviously not well.
 

artball

labels are for canned food
Jul 30, 2013
6,887
6,299
It is clear that they simply don't want to talk about it at all. Might hurt the interests of those who fund their parties.
It's a disgrace.

and it might hurt their own interests ... the brown paper bags, and kooshty jobs they get after politics ...
this lot are the most transparently self important and evil bunch i can remember, kind of curious there's a few evangelical christians among them ..

Yeah. That's that demarcation thing between the professional fireys and the CFA... not sure how that has shaken out recently but obviously not well.
not well from what he says, they aren't allowed to go near the fire unless told to
 

Giardiasis

Tiger Legend
Apr 20, 2009
6,906
1,314
Brisbane
Evidence-based meaning we have more fires and this is what we are projecting. We therefore need more or less firefighting resources and these hazard reduction measures. We could throw up our hands and say "oh its too hard to assign budget to according to actual needs because we don't have an easy freemarket mechanism to determine relative value" but actually the reason budgets were cut is because of an obsession with delivering surpluses for political reasons. Now people are losing their homes and livlihoods are paying the real cost.

I'm really not interested in debating the pros and cons of Libertarianism at this point, sorry G.
You get the same arguments for all government agencies saying they need the money because something bad is increasing yadda yadda yadda. How do you determine which is more important? Assigning budget according to needs sounds good but again the only way to do that rationally is with prices. If the government doesn’t deliver surpluses, how will the debt ever be paid?

The problem is government pure and simple, they lack the tools necessary to rationally sort the problem of how much to spend on anything, let alone emergency services. Not only that, they obtain their revenue from expropriation, not through free exchange which works to distort prices. It is under these conditions that allow the corruption you lament to exist to the extent it does.
 
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eZyT

Tiger Legend
Jun 28, 2019
21,434
25,766
You get the same arguments for all government agencies saying they need the money because something bad is increasing yadda yadda yadda. How do you determine which is more important?

pretty easy.

if they are useless and unnecessary and have heaps of money, dont give them much money; if they are essential and dont have much money, give them heaps of money.

If I was a public revenue distribution consultant, that exec summary would cost you 600 grand.
 

LeeToRainesToRoach

Tiger Legend
Jun 4, 2006
33,186
11,546
Melbourne
What do we find happening 10 years after the idiots in Canberra were warned:
  • lengthened fire seasons.
Is that factual? I'm sure I read the other day that about a quarter of the most serious NSW bushfires of the last ~90 years occurred prior to November.
  • less opportunity to perform hazard reduction burns as the bush is simply too dry to risk these getting out of control.

If the allegations of "green" councils opposing backburning have any substance, the councils need to be named and shamed. Which councils, and who is making the decisions? Put up or shut up. If people are criminally liable then they need to be held to account.

Edit: It seems some councils are fining individuals and businesses hefty sums for clearing trees to protect their property.
 
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HR

Tiger Superstar
Mar 20, 2013
2,441
1,517
16 year old kids, climate change realists or self fullfilling prophets! Burn the place down = climate change must be the cause.

My take, get as much of the renewables as we can sensibly and give us affordable power now.
Cut the crap saying we can provide all with renewables!

Imagine Melbourne on renewables! Sydeny on renewables! Moe on renewables! Actually put Melbourne on renewables now, you are ready arent you Melbourne.
 

AngryAnt

Tiger Legend
Nov 25, 2004
27,017
14,791
You get the same arguments for all government agencies saying they need the money because something bad is increasing yadda yadda yadda. How do you determine which is more important?

Here's how we know bud. NSW is burning and the fireys told us in March that it would be a likely hellish fire season this year.

Also get this - we used to lease the Elvis super firefighting helicopters from the US for our fire seasons BUT NOW OUR FIRE SEASONS OVERLAP so we can't do this with any certainty. Yes, fire seasons in both North and South hemispheres overlap. Wake the *smile* up people.

Needless to say Gladys and ScoMo said GGF in March when the fireys told them this.

 

artball

labels are for canned food
Jul 30, 2013
6,887
6,299
not just a rebuilt sports stadium, but 75 new fighter jets, new submarines, 10% pay increases for political staffers last month, etc etc ...
surely even half a dozen Elvis Choppers ain't too much to ask ....
 

Giardiasis

Tiger Legend
Apr 20, 2009
6,906
1,314
Brisbane
Here's how we know bud. NSW is burning and the fireys told us in March that it would be a likely hellish fire season this year.
That doesn’t give you a rational dollar value to allocate to it. Stop complaining about the outcomes of bureaucratic management if you aren’t going to question the adequacy of the process itself.
 

LeeToRainesToRoach

Tiger Legend
Jun 4, 2006
33,186
11,546
Melbourne
Here's how we know bud. NSW is burning and the fireys told us in March that it would be a likely hellish fire season this year.

Also get this - we used to lease the Elvis super firefighting helicopters from the US for our fire seasons BUT NOW OUR FIRE SEASONS OVERLAP so we can't do this with any certainty. Yes, fire seasons in both North and South hemispheres overlap. Wake the **** up people.

Needless to say Gladys and ScoMo said GGF in March when the fireys told them this.


Criticism is valid if firefighters are under-resourced. But once again, whatever Australia does or does not do will not make a rat's arse of difference to climate. The movement is separated from reality on this subject.

China’s power industry calls for hundreds of new coal power plants by 2030
 

TigerMasochist

Walks softly carries a big stick.
Jul 13, 2003
25,564
11,442
Criticism is valid if firefighters are under-resourced. But once again, whatever Australia does or does not do will not make a rat's arse of difference to climate. The movement is separated from reality on this subject.

China’s power industry calls for hundreds of new coal power plants by 2030
Yep n India is also planning on doing similar.
The fun bit is that they're buying our minerals to build the *smile* with n our coal to power them, perhaps they'll choke on the fumes a week or two before we do if we're lucky. It's obvious that we're no longer permitted to use any of this *smile* we've got lying around at home so we're just sticking it all on Ebay for the rest of the world to buy. Lucky for us we've got lots of *smile* big paddocks to dig lots of holes in. Pity we'll have to go to bed as soon as it gets dark 'coz we won't have any power to turn the lights on at night.
 

Brodders17

Tiger Legend
Mar 21, 2008
17,661
11,694
Is that factual? I'm sure I read the other day that about a quarter of the most serious NSW bushfires of the last ~90 years occurred prior to November.


If the allegations of "green" councils opposing backburning have any substance, the councils need to be named and shamed. Which councils, and who is making the decisions? Put up or shut up. If people are criminally liable then they need to be held to account.

Edit: It seems some councils are fining individuals and businesses hefty sums for clearing trees to protect their property.
that article is about 1 instance over 15 years ago.
 

AngryAnt

Tiger Legend
Nov 25, 2004
27,017
14,791
That doesn’t give you a rational dollar value to allocate to it. Stop complaining about the outcomes of bureaucratic management if you aren’t going to question the adequacy of the process itself.

Yes, would play well in country Australia. I can just imagine the presser - "Because we couldn't determine a rational dollar value for these essential services as per the Austrian School of economics, we decided to just cut national parks funding so we couldn't do any hazard reduction burns and also we cut funding to the CFA against their recommendations and advice. and didn't buy the helicopters they told us they needed as the fire season was predicted to be a doozy this year. Sorry some of you died and your houses burnt down."
 

Giardiasis

Tiger Legend
Apr 20, 2009
6,906
1,314
Brisbane
Yes, would play well in country Australia. I can just imagine the presser - "Because we couldn't determine a rational dollar value for these essential services as per the Austrian School of economics, we decided to just cut national parks funding so we couldn't do any hazard reduction burns and also we cut funding to the CFA against their recommendations and advice. and didn't buy the helicopters they told us they needed as the fire season was predicted to be a doozy this year. Sorry some of you died and your houses burnt down."
It’d be the truth though.

Privatise emergency services and then insurance companies can rationally determine what to pay them based on the prices they can get for insurance policies from the people that are actually exposed to the risk. Instigating hazard reduction burning would entail a lower premium for policy holders. Expensive insurance policies would discourage people from living in high risk areas.

No wait, let’s keep emergency services public which substitutes rational resource allocation for bureaucratic mismanagement and let’s pay for it by threatening to throw people in jail if they don’t pay for something they don’t want.
 
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