Global Warming

[tigerman]

There's an article on abc news saying that climate change has pushed the worlds oceans to to record temperatures.

Around 90 per cent of climate change energy is stored in our oceans, according to Professor Abraham from the University of Minnesota.

"You cannot really measure global warming unless you measure ocean warming," he said.

"I like to say 'global warming is ocean warming', since the oceans absorb so much heat and are huge, it makes ocean measurements less noisy than air temperatures."

In other words, because ocean temperatures take much more energy to move than air, they don't fluctuate as wildly year on year as surface temperatures do.

They therefore provide a much more stable indication of warming trends.

The past 10 years have been the hottest 10 years on record, according to the researchers.

They also estimate the rate of warming during the period between 1987-2019 was 450 per cent greater than the prior 30-year period from 1955 to 1986.

What do record ocean temperatures have to do with the Australian bushfires? A lot, say scientists

New research shows the average ocean temperature in 2019 has continued to rise to the highest level on record, and will drive more extreme weather events and bushfires as ocean temperatures increase.

www.abc.net.au

 

[LeeToRainesToRoach]

It’s A Match: Satellite and Ground Measurements Agree on Warming
The consensus gives confidence to satellite estimates of temperature rise in remote areas with few weather stations

 

[Tigers of Old]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1216926145507033093

Guess I'll have to keep yelling at that cloud.
The Australian Open must be in some doubt unless this smoke clears.

 

[jb03]

Why the ef are they playing tennis qualifiers today? TA should be liable of outcomes.

 

[tigerman]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1216926145507033093

Guess I'll have to keep yelling at that cloud.
The Australian Open must be in some doubt unless this smoke clears.

Didn't you know ToO, everything's ok now, ScoMo has got his mate Trump to downgrade the travel warning to Australia. They'll be fine to come here, they just wont be able to breathe.
On the same day Melbourne had the worse air quality in the world.

 

[MD Jazz]

It's unknown territory but the Government needs to provide more information on the health risks of breathing hazardous air.
All AFL teams are training indoors today.

Are you predicting we are living in this haze for good?

It's just common sense isn't it, where possible avoid the outdoors.

 

[DavidSSS]

It’s A Match: Satellite and Ground Measurements Agree on Warming
The consensus gives confidence to satellite estimates of temperature rise in remote areas with few weather stations

Your point? The last line is:

“We know the planet is warming, but this is one more nail in the coffin to people who claim that the surface temperature estimates are uncertain or not to be trusted,” Schmidt said. “This is a really good demonstration that, again, totally independent methodology ends up producing not just qualitatively the same results, but quantitatively the same results.

Yep, climate change is happening as they state here:

The bad news: Global warming is still steadily proceeding. But the good news is that all of these methods broadly agree with one another, despite being collected in very different ways. That means there’s high confidence that the estimates are accurate.

DS

 

[DavidSSS]

On a more optimistic note, BOM are saying that there is a good chance some decent rain might be coming across from the North of WA and may be enough to help with the fires. I hope this does happen although it will cause some problems for firefighters overall some good rain will be a help.

DS

 

[lamb22]

A bit dehydrated today and bought a bottle of cold water at Flinders Street about 5.pm. I start drinking it on the platform and I fear the the plastic is deteriorating as its grainy and uncomfortable and strange tasting. I then realise I am taking in with my water the particles floating in the air. Once on the train the water tastes OK. Now this begs the question about that grainy crap we are inhaling but not noticing quite how crap it is. Try and stay indoors until this stuff clears a bit.

 

[LeeToRainesToRoach]

Your point?

Sigh. The point is you claimed above that terrestrial measurements are more accurate than satellite.

 

[lamb22]

Wow. Why are there no souls out to destroy this comment L2 or cast aspersions about who you are and how you portray yourself?

Just speaking for myself, no need to respond to the tin foil hat socialist thermometer crowd.

 

[LeeToRainesToRoach]

On the bushfires, here is a very good primer (PDF format) on prescribed burning as it relates to Victoria which shows what we have done historically and why, along with future recommendations which were ignored.

https://www.aph.gov.au › DocumentStore

 

[LeeToRainesToRoach]

Just speaking for myself, no need to respond to the tin foil hat socialist thermometer crowd.

So you are content that it is logical and results in an accurate record of daily temperature?

 

[tigerman]

Sigh. The point is you claimed above that terrestrial measurements are more accurate than satellite.

What do you think about ocean temperatures as a more accurate measurement of global warming

 

[lamb22]

So you agree that it's a logical and accurate way of recording daily temperature?

If that's the way they've always done it then you compare apples with apples, no?

 

[LeeToRainesToRoach]

What do you think about ocean temperatures as a more accurate measurement of global warming

It's very difficult as the ocean has striated "layers" which can vary significantly in temperature. My understanding is that it's not as accurate at air temperature measurements, but research is ongoing.

 

[tigerman]

It's very difficult as the ocean has striated "layers" which can vary significantly in temperature. My understanding is that it's not as accurate at air temperature measurements, but research is ongoing.

Cheers
I found this to be an interesting article.

Oceans Are Warming Faster Than Predicted

Earth’s seas are absorbing excess heat 40 percent faster than previous estimates

www.scientificamerican.com

 

[LeeToRainesToRoach]

If that's the way they've always done it then you compare apples with apples, no?

If it is the way it's always been done then yes, it is logical to continue with the same methodology and inherent bias in the BoM's large-scale datasets. I couldn't find information to confirm. If that's the case over the long term then I take back my inference about heat records being inflated.

Here's another recent example of the effect.

Adelaide Almost Registers Coldest January Day On Record

Adelaide came close to registering its coldest January day on record on Sunday.

The temperature at Adelaide's West Terrace weather station only reached 16.6 degrees on Sunday, thanks to a blanket of cloud streaming down from a low pressure system off Australia's northwest coast. This is about 13 degrees below average for this time of year and lower than the city's lowest January maximum temperature on record, which was 17.1 degrees in 1970.

However, official maximum temperatures in Australia are measured as the highest temperature during the 24 hours to 9am each day.

Just before 9am on Monday, the temperature at Adelaide's West Terrace site reached 17.8 degrees, which became the official maximum temperature for the previous 24 hour period.

 

[Coburgtiger]

Back to the BoM for a second, and a little observation of my own...

I noticed the maximum daily temperature recorded for Melbourne on Sunday 29/12/19 is shown by the BoM as 33.2 degrees. Having monitored the Melbourne temperature on that day while watching the cricket and keeping tabs on the bushfires and not seen it exceed 27.0 degrees, I emailed the BoM to suggest that their daily maximum for 29/12 may be in error.

The response received today stated that the daily maximum is recorded between 9am and 9am, and that the maximum for "Sunday December 29th" was recorded at 8:58am on Monday December 30th, and therefore there is no error in the data. Monday was a one-off hot day with a maximum of 40.8 degrees, so the BoM effectively "double dips" in such circumstances, reporting a false maximum for the previous day and enabling it to claim more "record hot" months and years.

Naysayers may well try to justify this as valid practice, but to me, "Sunday December 29th" covers the period from midnight to midnight, and nothing outside. Forgive me if my faith in the Bureau has not been restored...

Lee walking around with his little thermometer reminds me of this guy:

A man took a spirit level on a plane to prove the earth is flat

A flat-earth conspiracy theorist took a spirit level on a plane to “prove” the earth is flat. He also filmed it... Presumably in the name of science? YouTuber D Marble flew from North Carolina to Seattle to see if the pilot would dip the nose of the plane to “compensate for curvature”. He says...

www.indy100.com

A man took a spirit level on a plane to prove the earth is flat
He even sounds like him:


“I recorded a 23 minute and 45 seconds time-lapse, which by those measurements means the plane traveled a little over 203 miles," he explained in his video. "According to curvature math given to explain the globe model, this should have resulted in the compensation of 5 miles of curvature. As you'll see there was no measurable compensation for curvature."

"Understand that gravity is a still just a theory," he goes on to say. "No more defending what we know to be true! Now we take the fight to the enemy! #FEOffensive

 

[LeeToRainesToRoach]

Lee walking around with his little thermometer

Was reading from the BoM website which publishes readings at half-hour intervals, along with the maximum temperature for the day at any point. Sorry to break the imagery.