Global Warming | PUNT ROAD END | Richmond Tigers Forum
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Global Warming

DavidSSS

Tiger Legend
Dec 11, 2017
10,523
17,874
Melbourne
Meanwhile, the world keeps getting warmer.

May 2020 was the planet’s warmest May since record keeping began in 1880, said NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) and NASA June 12. NOAA rated May as tied with 2016 for warmest May on record, while NASA put May 2020 ahead of May 2016 by 0.06°C. Minor differences in rankings often occur between NOAA and NASA, the result of the different techniques they use to handle data-sparse regions such as the Arctic.


The year-to-date period of January-May ranks as the second-warmest such period on record, just 0.06°C behind the record set in 2016. According to NCEI’s annual temperature outlook, the year 2020 has more than a 99.9% chance to rank among the five warmest years on record, and a 49% chance of being the warmest year on record. If so, calendar 2020 would mean each of the past seven years would be among the seven warmest years on record.


NASA classified May 2020 as having the 17th-highest monthly temperature departure, or variance, from average for any month in the 1,684-month record, dating back to 1880: 1.02°C (1.84°F) above the 20th century average. All five months of 2020 rank in the top 20 for warmest months on record.

Figure 1

Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for May 2020, the warmest May for the globe since record keeping began in 1880. Credit: NOAA/NCEI.

Global temperature records are more likely to be set during the peak of the solar cycle and during strong El Niño events, given the extra heat from the tropical Pacific Ocean up to the atmosphere. The remarkable warmth of 2020 has come in the absence of an El Niño event and during the minimum of one of the weakest 11-year solar cycles in the past century, underscoring the dominant role human-caused global warming has in heating our planet.


Global ocean temperatures during May 2020 were the second warmest on record, and global land temperatures were the warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures in May 2020 for the lowest 8 kilometers of the atmosphere were the 2nd warmest or warmest in the 42-year record, according to the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH) and Remote Sensing Systems (RSS), respectively.

Climate Change ain't going away anytime soon unless we actually start to take action.

We have so much opportunity to build an economy for the future with renewable energy it just isn't funny. Wonder if we will ever get politicians who are not too short-sighted to see this.

DS
 

tigerman

It's Tiger Time
Mar 17, 2003
24,150
19,618
Don't know what has caused it, but our Mango trees are flowering, they normally start to flower in September.
 

LeeToRainesToRoach

Tiger Legend
Jun 4, 2006
33,186
11,546
Melbourne
Anthony Albanese bid to end carbon wars between Labor and Morrison government (paywalled)

Anthony Albanese has moved to end the energy and climate wars by abandoning the failed National Energy Guarantee and Clean Energy Target, in a bid to strike a bipartisan agreement with Scott Morrison and support investment in new power generation.

The Opposition Leader on Wednesday will endorse the Prime Minister’s technology investment road map as the platform to deliver long-lasting energy policy but warns any new national plan must accommodate higher emissions reduction targets under a Labor government.

In a letter to Mr Morrison, Mr Albanese said the parties, which have been engulfed in internal division over energy policy for more than a decade, may clash on emissions targets but that should not stand in the way of a national energy framework.

“We are not calling for a return of the NEG or a Clean Energy Target or any other specific model,” Mr Albanese wrote.

- - - - -

Albanese finally realising that CC is an election-loser and selling out after he sees his voting demographic disappearing to the left and right.

Federal Labor is in danger of becoming the new Australian Democrats.
 

tigerdell

Hope springs infernal
Mar 29, 2014
4,549
5,156
Don't know what has caused it, but our Mango trees are flowering, they normally start to flower in September.
I like mangoes but hadnt realised how many different varieties there are.
Big peruvian rainbows, little juicy yellows, big and solid yellow oranges
 
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tigerman

It's Tiger Time
Mar 17, 2003
24,150
19,618
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tigerdell

Hope springs infernal
Mar 29, 2014
4,549
5,156
This explains why our mangoes trees have flowered 3 months early.


Western Australia has had its hottest start to winter on record with Perth enduring its equal-hottest June ever ... with below-average rainfall.

Overall it was hotter than a typical September in Perth, with the mean maximum temperature coming in at 21.4 degrees Celsius — well above the June average of 19.5C.


So good for Mango growing and reducing coronavirus spread!
 

tigerman

It's Tiger Time
Mar 17, 2003
24,150
19,618
Western Australia has had its hottest start to winter on record with Perth enduring its equal-hottest June ever ... with below-average rainfall.

Overall it was hotter than a typical September in Perth, with the mean maximum temperature coming in at 21.4 degrees Celsius — well above the June average of 19.5C.


So good for Mango growing and reducing coronavirus spread!
Yes, fingers crossed.
 
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LeeToRainesToRoach

Tiger Legend
Jun 4, 2006
33,186
11,546
Melbourne
Video posted to Twitter on Tuesday shows it snowing out the window of the Aurora apartment building at Melbourne Central with the flakes large enough to settle on the glass.

The Bureau of Meteorology has said Tuesday’s snowfall, which fell as low as 150 metres at some points around the state, was a one in 10 year occurrence.

Weather bureau senior forecaster Tom Fejes said Melbourne was in for a pretty cold run of temperatures with the cold front “not really budging from over Victoria” for the next few days.

“We are looking at potentially the coldest run of four days in a row in the Melbourne region since 1975 for August,” he said.

https://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/v...a/news-story/e786ee066f37e2c5927cc70ae4e7350a (paywalled)

Melbourne this year:

Month30-year average2020Diff
January27.026.9-0.1
February26.924.4-2.5
March24.622.9-1.7
April21.119.3-1.8
May17.616.4-1.2
June15.114.8-0.3
July14.514.0-0.5
August15.915.3-0.6

Climate change.
 

Brodders17

Tiger Legend
Mar 21, 2008
17,661
11,699
Video posted to Twitter on Tuesday shows it snowing out the window of the Aurora apartment building at Melbourne Central with the flakes large enough to settle on the glass.

The Bureau of Meteorology has said Tuesday’s snowfall, which fell as low as 150 metres at some points around the state, was a one in 10 year occurrence.

Weather bureau senior forecaster Tom Fejes said Melbourne was in for a pretty cold run of temperatures with the cold front “not really budging from over Victoria” for the next few days.

“We are looking at potentially the coldest run of four days in a row in the Melbourne region since 1975 for August,” he said.

https://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/v...a/news-story/e786ee066f37e2c5927cc70ae4e7350a (paywalled)

Melbourne this year:

Month30-year average2020Diff
January27.026.9-0.1
February26.924.4-2.5
March24.622.9-1.7
April21.119.3-1.8
May17.616.4-1.2
June15.114.8-0.3
July14.514.0-0.5
August15.915.3-0.6

Climate change.
I must admit i have always believed that humans are influencing the climate, but those stats show i was wrong. I should have listened to Andrew Bolt all along.
 
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LeeToRainesToRoach

Tiger Legend
Jun 4, 2006
33,186
11,546
Melbourne
I must admit i have always believed that humans are influencing the climate, but those stats show i was wrong. I should have listened to Andrew Bolt all along.

Why hasn't Melbourne been claimed, though? Has the movement reverted to "global warming"? Or is it now "climate change of our choosing"?
 
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DavidSSS

Tiger Legend
Dec 11, 2017
10,523
17,874
Melbourne
Those HUN figures are extremely dodgy. For a start I can't find a 30 year mean for Melbourne, not on the BOM site anyway. Also, a 30 year mean is not a great idea for Melbourne as we changed the main weather station in Melbourne in 2015. One of the main reasons for the change was that the original site was seen to be impacted by being in the middle of the city (LaTrobe St from memory but not sure) and they moved it to Olympic Park to get more accurate temperatures. Olympic Park would clearly be colder than a site in the middle of the city. I should add that the BOM does not provide averages for the Olympic Park site as it hasn't been around for long enough to give meaningful averages.

What is probably more revealing is the claimed 30 year average from the HUN compared to the long term average (all records, in the case of Melbourne back to 1855). The average cited by the HUN for the last 30 years is consistently higher than that for the whole period:

Month
HUN 30-year average
BOM All time average - Melbourne Office 1855 to 2015
Difference
January​
27​
26​
1​
February​
26.9​
25.8​
1.1​
March​
24.6​
23.9​
0.7​
April​
21.1​
20.3​
0.8​
May​
17.6​
16.7​
0.9​
June​
15.1​
14.1​
1​
July​
14.5​
13.5​
1​
August​
15.9​
15​
0.9​

What this tells us is that, despite the fact that the last 5 years of Melbourne observations being moved to a location which is colder (ie: 16.65% of the last 30 years) the average over the last 30 years is higher than that for the 160 years between 1855 and 2015. If the more recent average is higher, it's getting warmer.

What it also shows is that the HUN is good at cherry picking, but that is of no surprise at all. Their strategy of picking data to suit is unconvincing.

So, what do we get is we look at the actual data for capital cities in Australia?

Well, how about the anomaly for all capitals for 2020 (and for the country as a whole):

Month
Australia​
Melbourne
Sydney
Canberra
January​
1.45​
1.00​
2.10​
3.40​
February​
0.73​
-1.80​
1.30​
0.40​
March​
0.57​
-0.80​
0.50​
-1.20​
April​
1.64​
-1.30​
1.90​
-1.20​
May​
-0.37​
-0.50​
0.70​
-0.70​
June​
1.70​
0.50​
1.60​
1.10​
July​
1.54​
0.00​
1.60​
1.70​

Month
Brisbane​
Hobart​
Adelaide​
Perth​
Darwin​
January​
0.40​
2.60​
0.00​
-0.70​
1.00​
February​
-0.30​
-0.90​
-2.70​
0.70​
1.90​
March​
-0.50​
-0.20​
-0.60​
0.10​
1.20​
April​
1.60​
-0.10​
-1.10​
0.40​
1.00​
May​
-0.60​
1.00​
-1.30​
-0.30​
0.00​
June​
0.70​
0.80​
-0.20​
1.90​
1.70​
July​
0.00​
0.70​
0.50​
1.00​
1.40​

19 out of the 56 monthly anomalies are lower than average, with 34 above average (Note, with the change in weather station for Melbourne I used Moorabbin Airport).

Probably not the story the Murdoch press want to promote.

Oh, and the August average for Melbourne according to my BOM calendar is 14.5, looks like we are above the long term average for Melbourne so far in August, but I'm sure Murdoch's loyal distorters at the HUN can find some sort of measure to make it look like the opposite.

I think the Bolt reference is to his habit of distorting and cherry picking data to suit, bit like his outrage over wearing masks in Melbourne - he just takes a position to suit his ideology.

DS
 

LeeToRainesToRoach

Tiger Legend
Jun 4, 2006
33,186
11,546
Melbourne
Those HUN figures are extremely dodgy.

They're from the BoM site.


JM7OBBh.jpg


Apologies, I morphed from a HS article on snow and cold weather into a comment on Melbourne's weather this year which might've thrown you.

BoM ran the new site in tandem with the old one for over a year and their main observation was that the new site was cooler in the face of southerlies and sea breezes.

I don't wish to re-enter a debate on historical temperatures in general given that they have been artificially altered (i.e. lowered) in line with current wisdom, and we were unable to reach agreement as to the validity of this practice in previous discussion. My comment was restricted to Melbourne's prolonged 2020 cold and the ignorance of it by those who profess to be concerned about climate change, and had no connection to Bolt.
 

AngryAnt

Tiger Legend
Nov 25, 2004
27,017
14,792
They're from the BoM site.


JM7OBBh.jpg


Apologies, I morphed from a HS article on snow and cold weather into a comment on Melbourne's weather this year which might've thrown you.

BoM ran the new site in tandem with the old one for over a year and their main observation was that the new site was cooler in the face of southerlies and sea breezes.

I don't wish to re-enter a debate on historical temperatures in general given that they have been artificially altered (i.e. lowered) in line with current wisdom, and we were unable to reach agreement as to the validity of this practice in previous discussion. My comment was restricted to Melbourne's prolonged 2020 cold and the ignorance of it by those who profess to be concerned about climate change, and had no connection to Bolt.


Who's ignorant about it? Climate change is real, and climate variability still exists, always has and will.
 

Althom

Tiger Superstar
Jul 23, 2016
1,175
1,027
Of course Climate Change is real.
We're moving away from the last major climate event, the last Ice Age, and moving towards the next major climate event, the next Ice Age.
Totally natural that the planet will, on average, warm up as we head towards the next Ice Age.
There'll be deviations away from that trend as the cycle continues but continue it will and there's jack **** to be done about it.