Global Warming | PUNT ROAD END | Richmond Tigers Forum
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Global Warming

RoarEmotion

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Aug 20, 2005
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The first key assumption implied here is that we can shape earth’s climate. The global shutdown of 2020 had no effect on atmospheric CO2.

The short timescales crucial to the ‘emergency’ narrative are gross underestimates.

An alternate parallel might be Hocking’s unnecessary rule changes rooting the game of football.

To say humans don’t Impact climate doesn’t make sense to me. Arguing we can’t doing anything about it slightly different but disagree. Just deforestation or the co2 level change in atmosphere shows massive global changes for known human activities. We may not know what the magnitude of the effect is, but arguing there is no effect seems nonsensical to me.
 
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LeeToRainesToRoach

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Jun 4, 2006
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To say humans don’t Impact climate doesn’t make sense to me. Just deforestation or the co2 level change in atmosphere shows massive global changes for known human activities. We may not know what the magnitude of what the effect is, but arguing there is no effect seems nonsensical to me.
Once again, that is not what I said. We are almost certainly having some impact. I have stated this many times. I have also not condoned deforestation which is continuing apace in various places due to population pressures.

Proportion of CO2 in the atmosphere is increasing at a near-metronomic rate and is not bound to man-made emissions which have quadrupled since 1950.

I know you haven’t been heavily involved in this thread but I really don’t enjoy going over old ground and have attempted to keep to new developments.
 

RoarEmotion

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Aug 20, 2005
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I’ll read back. Np.

I’m confused that co2 not related to man made so I’ll try and find your posts related to that. Didn’t even know that was being disputed as to cause and effect.

According to https://www.climate.gov/news-featur...ate/climate-change-atmospheric-carbon-dioxide

“The annual rate of increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide over the past 60 years is about 100 times faster than previous natural increases, such as those that occurred at the end of the last ice age 11,000-17,000 years ago. “
 
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LeeToRainesToRoach

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Jun 4, 2006
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I’ll read back. Np.

I’m confused that co2 not related to man made so I’ll try and find your posts related to that. Didn’t even know that was being disputed as to cause and effect.

According to https://www.climate.gov/news-featur...ate/climate-change-atmospheric-carbon-dioxide

“The annual rate of increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide over the past 60 years is about 100 times faster than previous natural increases, such as those that occurred at the end of the last ice age 11,000-17,000 years ago. “
Nobody expects you to read back through so much guff.

I'm referring to the Keeling curve which shows the proportion of CO2 in the atmosphere.

41598_2020_77921_Fig8_HTML.png


Anthropogenic emissions have doubled in the timeframe of the chart, but the trend remains near-constant. As stated, it did not miss a beat last year despite a dramatic slowdown in industry and travel.

co2_trend_mlo.png
 

AngryAnt

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Nov 25, 2004
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These are postulated by smarter people than you or I. I don’t necessarily subscribe but have posted to illustrate that the dominant narrative is not the sum total of the state of climate science.

But if you’re as bound to the emergency narrative as you are to supporting Richmond over another club, you’re not going to consider any other possibilities.
Always open to considering other possibilities Lee, but the sites/scientists you end up quoting usually end up as crackpots or outliers. Outliers are fine, sometimes they prove right, so they have to be considered.

But the overwhelming evidence - and I'm not talking about models here, but actual observed changes in the contemporary environment physical evidence in terms of land/air/sea warming, tropical lines pushing further away from the equator, extremes of temperature, increased tropical disease, reduced rainfall, glacial retreat, extremes in forest/bush fires globally, increased length of fire seasons in both hemispheres, coral bleaching, loss of kelp forests, change in agricultural seasons all point to change having occurred and still occurring.

But the denialist argument that you continually fly is "the models are slightly wrong", or "it's a UN conspiracy" or "it's a CCP conspiracy".

Of course you completely ignore measurable increases in deaths. Because your narrative is "nothing of significance is happening", so lots of brown people dying at slightly increased rates in countries far from our comfortable existence doesn't matter.
 

LeeToRainesToRoach

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Jun 4, 2006
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Always open to considering other possibilities Lee, but the sites/scientists you end up quoting usually end up as crackpots or outliers. Outliers are fine, sometimes they prove right, so they have to be considered.
Spencer/Christy/Curry/Dyson/Plimer/Soon are far from crackpots. Not sure about Lomborg.

Global precipitation is increasing, contrary to your assertion. There has been a nett greening of the earth which has, overall, been beneficial to this point.

That the models are wrong was shown some time ago. The IPCC conceding on this point is the news.

There is no question whatsoever that the UN is manipulating global wealth via climate change policy. This is on the public record in the words of its own constituents.

People are dying all the time from various causes.

Cold-weather accounts for almost all temperature-related deaths
 

AngryAnt

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Nov 25, 2004
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Spencer/Christy/Curry/Dyson/Plimer/Soon are far from crackpots. Not sure about Lomborg.

Global precipitation is increasing, contrary to your assertion. There has been a nett greening of the earth which has, overall, been beneficial to this point.

That the models are wrong was shown some time ago. The IPCC conceding on this point is the news.

There is no question whatsoever that the UN is manipulating global wealth via climate change policy. This is on the public record in the words of its own constituents.

People are dying all the time from various causes.

Cold-weather accounts for almost all temperature-related deaths

1. Crackpots, outliers, whatever, judge their work by their merits. Most of the science you have posted on here that I've seen has been from fringe websites - show me something peer reviewed, at least. I post articles from Nature, that's the difference mate.
2. Rainfall increasing in some areas, decreasing in others. The point is that there is change. We had the driest year ON RECORD in Australia in 2019.
3. The models are constantly adjusted and improved. Science always seeks to improve, that's not news except in denialist lala-land.
4. You concede you think it's a UN conspiracy. So why do you bother with the "science" argument at all?
5. So you disregard all the science that measures increased death rates due to tropical disease and extreme heat and cold events? You really are a luddite on this - pick the "science" that suits, ignore the rest.
 

LeeToRainesToRoach

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Jun 4, 2006
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2. Rainfall increasing in some areas, decreasing in others. The point is that there is change. We had the driest year ON RECORD in Australia in 2019.
These have been discussed at length so I'm just going to address the blatant falsehood - the implication that there is a long-term trend of decreasing rainfall in Australia. That you believe it to be so says much for the effectiveness of the narrative. Fake news!

a706f880fdae20f9aac03f4aa76759cd


Remember 2020 and the early prognosis for no rain until May? 2020 saw rainfall above the long-term average. I believe 2021 is tracking pretty well also.

The BoM's three-month outlooks have proven worse than useless.
 

AngryAnt

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Nov 25, 2004
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These have been discussed at length so I'm just going to address the blatant falsehood - the implication that there is a long-term trend of decreasing rainfall in Australia. That you believe it to be so says much for the effectiveness of the narrative. Fake news!

a706f880fdae20f9aac03f4aa76759cd


Where was the blatant falsehood? I said we had the driest year on record in 2019. I said nothing about averages over time.

As you would say "stop making stuff up".
 

RoarEmotion

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Aug 20, 2005
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Nobody expects you to read back through so much guff.

I'm referring to the Keeling curve which shows the proportion of CO2 in the atmosphere.

Anthropogenic emissions have doubled in the timeframe of the chart, but the trend remains near-constant. As stated, it did not miss a beat last year despite a dramatic slowdown in industry and travel.

Thanks for pulling those charts out.

So is your point correlation doesn't necessarily equal causation, or maybe that not all of the variation is explained by human activity?

i.e. CO2 emission rates are increasing but CO2 levels aren't increasing at the same speed. You can see that in the charts below (no way I can validate the data) but there is a pretty strong correlation to my eyes even though they don't move in perfect harmony. I'm sure there are all kinds of data challenges in getting a perfect atmospheric CO2 average and then also other secondary feedback mechanisms that move the number up or down a little relative to the absolute amount of CO2 emissions. Maybe some of the carbon neutral credits actually have put some CO2 back in the earth and aren't just trading plays.

I'm sure there is a break in how CO2 is measured since it seems the Keeling thing started in the 50s, but even starting from then I can only see a correlation.

1627798311991.png
 

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LeeToRainesToRoach

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This is the sort of thing that is used to convince the unwary. It aligns two scales with one beginning at zero and the other at 260 and to give the appearance they're in lockstep.

The NOAA chart appears to focus on energy emissions; the chart below indicates total anthropogenic emissions (black + blue)have risen from ~30 gigatons to ~40 gigatons since 2000 - not as steep an increase as is shown above. And of course the Keeling curve did not react to the 2020 downturn. There is very little mention of this in mainstream climate discussion.

mc34qsy.jpg


The question remains - after being in lockdown for significant periods of the past 18 months and the Keeling curve not even flinching, what sort of measures are required for us to influence atmospheric CO2? Climate activists are currently attempting to push through a global tax on meat...

PS Brett Sutton gave an absolute masterclass on how to lie with stats this morning. Happy to discuss.
 
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RoarEmotion

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Aug 20, 2005
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PS Brett Sutton gave an absolute masterclass on how to lie with stats this morning. Happy to discuss.
Yep shame on me - I did stats at uni so should have picked up the dodgy y-axis which amplifies the visual of the slop. But if it is a y=mx+c relationship, then c is kind of irrelevant.

With that said a more useful chart would show what % of emissions get converted into CO2 in the atmosphere as that does talk to the magnitude of what would need to change.

I'm all for a flat price on Carbon and then letting market forces use it. How you come up with that number though is beyond vexed - depends if endgame is armageddon or not. Also measuring and policing it will be super difficult.

Even NZ - such a green country - has lower targets on its main industry and contribution to emissions (cow methane).
 
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LeeToRainesToRoach

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Yep shame on me - I did stats at uni so should have picked up the dodgy y-axis which amplifies the visual of the slop. But if it is a y=mx+c relationship, then c is kind of irrelevant.
Ah I only saw a quote in the paper, didn't see a chart.
Chief health officer Brett Sutton said a snapshot of the state’s 204 Covid cases between July 12 and 28 revealed only 10 were fully vaccinated.

Prof Sutton said a further 25 of those recently infected had received a single dose of the Covid vaccine.

However, of the 204 Victorians who caught Covid, 29 were eligible for the vaccine but had not received their jabs.
From this, it follows that of the 204:

10 had 2 jabs
25 had 1 jab
169 had 0 jabs; 29 of the 169 were eligible
140 not yet eligible

Therefore of 64 infected + eligible, 35 had at least one jab, 29 had no jab.

It was intended to be an advertisement for the vaccines but in reality it suggests either the vaccines are not that effective in preventing infection, or (more likely) the jabbed are out and about thinking themselves impervious to a degree.

Re CO2, nobody has been able to accurately define what man's contribution is. That's why there are skeptics/deniers.
 
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AngryAnt

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Nov 25, 2004
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Re CO2, nobody has been able to accurately define what man's contribution is. That's why there are skeptics/deniers.

All you have to do is look at the CO2 ppm increase in the atmosphere since industrialization. And we know those levels going back millions of years for comparison.

I wonder how you'll try to obfuscate that pretty clear and inarguable point of science.
 

DavidSSS

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Dec 11, 2017
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Melbourne
L2R2R, you say that the science does not have the answers.

You then say that I am misquoting you when I ask (ask, not state) if you think we should do nothing given the evidence.

You claim that you are not denying that something is happening, then go on to imply that the temperature records are being manipulated, snipe at the edges of the scientific debate to try and attempt to undermine the vast majority of the science that shows climate change is happening and that human activity is the cause.

You look like Castagna trying a pinpoint pass in our forward 50, pity how it goes out of bounds.

I'll ask the same question I have been asking for years: we all know climate change is happening, we can all see the impacts, why do you keep trying to deny reality and clutch on to the crap the deniersphere trots out?

DS
 

DavidSSS

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Dec 11, 2017
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Geez, the whole rainfall in Australia thing was brought up by L2R2R a couple of years ago and, as was pointed out then, the changes in rainfall in Australia are regional - from what I remember it was a case of falling rainfall in SE Australia and rising in NW Australia. As was pointed out then, clearly to no avail as L2R2R has yet again brought it up as he must assume we have no memory of the way his argument fell flat on its face then, the changes in average rainfall across all of Australia is a useless stat given the different regions of Australia have quite different climates.

I'm not going back to debunk the selective use of data by L2R2R yet again, I just can't be bothered dealing with someone who is unwilling to learn from previous debates.

That the models are wrong was shown some time ago.

Wrong: https://www.universetoday.com/14232...y-accurate-within-1-20th-of-a-degree-celsius/

There is no question whatsoever that the UN is manipulating global wealth via climate change policy. This is on the public record in the words of its own constituents.

Yep, it is all a big conspiracy isn't it? The UN, the scientists, hey, even a few of us Richmond supporters, we're all conspiring to manipulate global wealth via some concocted theory of climate change, sure Lee :rolleyes:

You want to see manipulation of global wealth go look at the fossil fuel industry.

DS
 
Jul 26, 2004
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Greece experienced its hottest day on record this week & has massive fires right now. Turkey too is on fire with apocalyptic scenes reminscent of Australia a couple of years ago..