Global Warming | PUNT ROAD END | Richmond Tigers Forum
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Global Warming

Al Bundy

Premiers 2017, 2019, 2020 ...2021?
Aug 27, 2003
7,141
616
Melbourne
so we emit about twice as much on a per capita basis?? but we expect them to do more?
U serious??

i do expect more because of their actual impact compare to Aus on the world.

But will it happen. No. UN has them as a BS developing nation. Excused for the next 9 yrs

we could go land mass area. Or do we go cities over 20K. Or do we... look for any angle u like to have crack at Aust. Its has its agreed measures at least & making change. China hasnt.
 
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Brodders17

Tiger Legend
Mar 21, 2008
17,666
11,713
U serious??

i do expect more because of their actual impact compare to Aus on the world.

But will it happen. No. UN has them as a BS developing nation. Excused for the next 9 yrs

we could go land mass area. Or do we go cities over 20K. Or do we... look for any angle u like to have crack at Aust. Its has its agreed measures at least & making change. China hasnt.
the impact you have as an Australian individual is, on average, twice that of someone living in China.

China should do more, undoubtedly, but so should Australia. And we have the resources to do so. but instead some people keep saying "look over there".
 
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Brodders17

Tiger Legend
Mar 21, 2008
17,666
11,713
What’s the fairest measure? Per capita or per km^2. I’d argue the latter. With the first one you can continue to increase absolute emissions.
There is no one answer. Yes it matters more what China do than what Nauru does, but some Australians pretend we are virtuous whilst we rank about 15th for total emissions and about 55 for population size.
we need to control what we can control.
 

DavidSSS

Tiger Legend
Dec 11, 2017
10,525
17,883
Melbourne
No I do not note that Australia is meeting its pathetic targets, in fact, I know we are not.

So, not only do we set targets with a deliberate cherry picking of the start date (2005) which was when we were getting close to the highest level of land clearing (meaning Australia could effectively cheat by claiming a slowing of land clearing we knew was going to happen anyway) we are also not meeting the targets.

Let me illustrate.

All of the following is from the government's own website, here are 3 quotes from the page on how we are apparently meeting the targets:

Australia is on track to meet its 2030 target of 26 to 28% below 2005 levels.
Australia has committed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to 26 to 28% below 2005 levels by 2030.
Emissions are projected to decline to 478 Mt CO2-e in 2030 which is 22% below 2005 levels.

I'd just like to make a simple observation in case it is not obvious: 22<26.

No, what is happening is that the government is lying.

Here is a graph from the Australian government's own spreadsheet:

AusGovt emissions projections 2020.jpg

Note how the 2020 emissions projections are above both the 26% and 28% reduction lines.

The government is lying.

The government's targets are pathetic, and manipulated by their cherry-picking of 2005 as a base year, and, they are not meeting the targets according to their own data.

Good article on this here (not paywalled): https://www.theguardian.com/busines...t-zero-emissions-is-massively-behind-schedule and it also explains the way the Australian government is manipulating the numbers, yet still can't meet the pathetic target set.

DS
 
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DavidSSS

Tiger Legend
Dec 11, 2017
10,525
17,883
Melbourne
I'll add more - how do we stack up against comparable countries?

Well, we are close to last on doing anything about climate change, in comparison to 22 OECD economies and Russia we are terrible and getting worse:

Aust Climate effort compared 2020.jpg

It is a joke.

The government is lying.

DS
 

Al Bundy

Premiers 2017, 2019, 2020 ...2021?
Aug 27, 2003
7,141
616
Melbourne
the impact you have as an Australian individual is, on average, twice that of someone living in China.

China should do more, undoubtedly, but so should Australia. And we have the resources to do so. but instead some people keep saying "look over there".
Thats your measurement B17 & thats not what is in place. And somehow brush off Chinas impact with undoubtedly?? But hey they are a developing country. Nothing to see here move on along. No targets.

Maybe u can join the UN and reset all countries measures. Look forward to it.

Why so much angst against Aust. Is it purely based on political party views to find constant faults current govt no matter what they do?

Just hope u not one of the tomato sauce head pourers or pram burners
 

DavidSSS

Tiger Legend
Dec 11, 2017
10,525
17,883
Melbourne
The angst about Australia is all about how little we are doing and, with Trump gone, we are pretty much the only country left (except maybe the oil states) who have active deniers and shills for coal in power.

FFS the Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics has stated that farm income is down 23% from the 1950-2000 level as a result of changes in seasonal conditions, yet the moronic Country Party (renamed the Nats somewhere along the way) still oppose taking action on climate change while it completely screws their own base.

The other aspect that really drives a lot of us spare is that Australia could be positioning itself to be an energy exporting powerhouse with the advantages we have in renewable energy, we are comprehensively f***ing up the huge hand we have been dealt.

The "Look over there at what they're doing" argument is a complete distraction simply designed to avert attention from the woeful actions of our government. We need to get our house in order before we comment on the actions of others. Anything else is a deliberate, gutless and stupid cop-out.

DS
 
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LeeToRainesToRoach

Tiger Legend
Jun 4, 2006
33,186
11,546
Melbourne
the impact you have as an Australian individual is, on average, twice that of someone living in China.

China should do more, undoubtedly, but so should Australia. And we have the resources to do so. but instead some people keep saying "look over there".
People in the backblocks need commodities too.

Plus, we're broke for the next hundred years due to the pandemic. Glasgow won't go smoothly.
 

LeeToRainesToRoach

Tiger Legend
Jun 4, 2006
33,186
11,546
Melbourne
Here is a graph from the Australian government's own spreadsheet:

View attachment 13076
So... we're currently under?

Looks like a good drop from 2020 to 2021 to me. Surely there will be another drop this year given the lockdowns, particularly the NSW lockdown?

Does the black line project future emissions if we do nothing? And the blue line reflect the government's actual projection?
 

DavidSSS

Tiger Legend
Dec 11, 2017
10,525
17,883
Melbourne
The black line represents what we are currently doing - govt does nothing but people install solar and coal power stations eventually close when they finish their useful life. In other words, we need to change what we are doing to get anywhere near net zero by 2050, or even a reduction of 26% by 2030. At this rate we will take over 100 years to reach net zero. In fact, the projections on the basis of a moderate economic recovery following COVID are a drop of 0.4% for the rest of this decade and at that rate there is no way we will even reach a 22% reduction from 2005 levels by 2030.

We are nowhere near meeting our own targets which are pathetic anyway.

Oh well, I suppose we just have to put up with the change in climate and hope we don't lose too much productivity in agriculture, the bushfires aren't too bad etc.

DS
 

LeeToRainesToRoach

Tiger Legend
Jun 4, 2006
33,186
11,546
Melbourne
Looks like swings and roundabout on agriculture productivity.

ag-snapshot-2021-4-01-lr.jpg
 

DavidSSS

Tiger Legend
Dec 11, 2017
10,525
17,883
Melbourne
Climate change really doesn't need all the distortions from the likes of the UAH crew, it really is pretty simple:

Temperatures are rising.

temper.jpg


Because the concentration of Greenhouse gasses (especially CO2) are rising.

co2.jpg


Because emissions keep rising.

emit.jpg


Which leads to thing like this:

July 2021 was Earth’s hottest July since global record-keeping began in 1880, 0.93 degrees Celsius (1.67°F) above the 20th-century average, NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information, NCEI, reported August 13. Since July is also the hottest month of the seasonal cycle, that meant that July 2021 was “more likely than not the warmest month on record for the globe since 1880,” NOAA said. July 2021 was just 0.01 degree Celsius hotter than July of 2016, 2019, and 2020, so these months can be considered to be in a statistical tie for Earth’s hottest month on record.

The record July warmth is particularly remarkable since there was a moderate La Niña event in the Eastern Pacific that peaked in November 2020 and ended in May 2021. La Niña events typically cause global cooling of about 0.1 degree Celsius; the peak cooling occurs five months after the La Niña peak, on average. July 2021 temperatures would have been even warmer had a La Niña event not occurred earlier this year.

For the full article see: https://yaleclimateconnections.org/...-warmest-month-in-recorded-history-says-noaa/

Which means we need to do this:

we find that nearly 60 per cent of oil and fossil methane gas, and 90 per cent of coal must remain unextracted to keep within a 1.5 °C carbon budget.

For full article see here: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03821-8

Simples.

DS
 
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LeeToRainesToRoach

Tiger Legend
Jun 4, 2006
33,186
11,546
Melbourne
Not an abnormally warm year to date except perhaps in the Arctic.

YEAR
MO
GLOBE
NHEM.
SHEM.
TROPIC
USA48
ARCTIC
AUST
2021​
Jan
+0.12​
+0.34​
-0.09​
-0.08​
+0.36​
+0.50​
-0.52​
2021​
Feb
+0.20​
+0.32​
+0.08​
-0.14​
-0.65​
+0.07​
-0.27​
2021​
Mar
-0.01​
+0.13​
-0.14​
-0.29​
+0.59​
-0.78​
-0.79​
2021​
Apr
-0.05​
+0.05​
-0.15​
-0.28​
-0.02​
+0.02​
+0.29​
2021​
May
+0.08​
+0.14​
+0.03​
+0.06​
-0.41​
-0.04​
+0.02​
2021​
Jun
-0.01​
+0.31​
-0.32​
-0.14​
+1.44​
+0.63​
-0.76​
2021​
Jul
+0.20​
+0.33​
+0.07​
+0.13​
+0.58​
+0.43​
+0.80​
2021​
Aug
+0.17​
+0.27​
+0.08​
+0.07​
+0.33​
+0.83​
-0.02​
 

Panthera Tigris

Tiger Champion
Apr 27, 2010
3,705
1,730
A point to note in the discussion on Chinese emissions. We can look at it from another angle, which is important to keep in mind. The developed world has exported by default, a chunk of their emissions to China, by outsourcing a large portion of manufacturing to China from the 1970s onwards. All that cheap *smile* we get them to manufacture, to maintain our facile, consumerist existence comes at an ‘out of sight, out of mind’ environmental cost.
 
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