Global Warming | PUNT ROAD END | Richmond Tigers Forum
  • IMPORTANT // Please look after your loved ones, yourself and be kind to others. If you are feeling that the world is too hard to handle there is always help - I implore you not to hesitate in contacting one of these wonderful organisations Lifeline and Beyond Blue ... and I'm sure reaching out to our PRE community we will find a way to help. T.

Global Warming

Brodders17

Tiger Legend
Mar 21, 2008
13,614
3,751
You have to demonstrate that you have suffered physical integrity damage to your property and can demonstrate a clear link to an aggressor. Even assuming AGW theory is correct, this won't be the case for most people.

I mean they could try but I doubt they would be successful.
so emitters can continue to emit, with no price attached?
 

Giardiasis

Tiger Legend
Apr 20, 2009
6,853
1,270
Brisbane
so emitters can continue to emit, with no price attached?
Not if you can demonstrate an emitter has caused you damage.

Otherwise you’re left with convincing market participants that continuing to use fossil fuels is bad, so let entrepreneurs do their job and look at ways to provide people convinced of AGW theory to get off it. Push hard to remove subsidises for existing technologies and barriers for new entrants to compete with existing technologies. If enough people want it the market is the best way to provide it. Distorting the market through gov intervention is not a method that will provide you with the goals you seek, unless you consider CO2 reductions through supply shortfalls (and the misery to millions it will cause) to be acceptable. Sort of like killing a patient to prevent them from getting sick.
 
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RoarEmotion

Tiger Superstar
Aug 20, 2005
1,863
1,568
I’ve already explained it, a price is a function of a market economy whereby market participants come together for mutual benefit to exchange goods and services. Their preferences are then conveyed through this act of exchange and only through this process is a price discovered. These prices contain useful information that can then be used to perform economic calculation to determine what is profitable and what is not, and this then allows resources to be allocated in line with consumer preferences. This is not without error as it still relies on the skill of the entrepreneur to predict future demand but it at least allows for some sense to be made. Without prices, there can be no economic calculation.

When a bureaucrat slaps on an extra cost to CO2 emissions, this cost has no connection to the demonstrated preferences of market participants. It is completely made up and guaranteed to lead to malinvestment and squandered resources. The whole price structure is falsified by this intervention. It does not guarantee CO2 emissions will be reduced in the long term, it may in the short term but as it will lead to general impoverishment and a reduction in the supply of fossil fuels it will in all likelihood lead to more CO2 emissions as the demand for energy hasn’t decreased. Coal will have to fill the gap and where it can’t it will just lead to shortages. This is what we are seeing in Europe right now.

I think the most likely scenario is that non-Western fossil fuel production will increase to fill the gap and the west will have scored an incredible own goal, now reliant on countries they do not have great relations with and who would be willing to use this leverage to advance political goals.

Thanks.

I agree there is a phenomenon called the cobra effect and the root cause issue is demand for energy / materials so unless this gets addressed we get all sorts of other effects by picking a symptom of energy demand (co2 levels) without addressing that root cause. Unless there is a global ‘price/disencentive’ consistently applied then i agree it will force energy to be generated where that disincentive isn’t applied. If there is a global disencentive then this can lead to more nuclear power, renewable power etc but these also come with their own negative effects and yes energy would cost more at least in the short term.


I can’t see how we will agree that the market comes up with the right answer (always) using the legal system and price. I can see as you get to more micro levels, and if market participants have similar powers and abilities to access the legal system it can work. But that just isn’t true. Someone being exploited in South Africa doesn’t likely have the education or resources or political capital to hold their exploiter to account.

Everything has flaws as we don’t have perfect knowledge and nor can we predict the future. So I get the appeal of an approach based on what people and corporations do to measure what they want and if that impacts someone else illegally to use a legal system to address it. You can assert that this will always lead to the best (fairest?) outcomes and any other approach won’t, but since you can’t predict the future, the argument is flawed IMO and more a belief. Much like I have a belief intervention is warranted when the evidence starts to mount up.

We can’t play out two separate universes perfectly to see what would happen if we don’t intervene but Id guess there is enough evidence where countries have made different choices to show the benefits of government market manipulation on smoking rates via tax on cigarettes / packaging laws etc. and rules around drink driving / seat belt use etc and even right now with vaccine uptake. There are also plenty of counter factuals where it has failed such as diesel driven car policies in Europe leading to smog. I’d certainly advocate to look to improve things where there is evidence the market is failing, but if the intervention isn’t working, then you need to be open to reversing it.
 

TigerMasochist

Walks softly carries a big stick.
Jul 13, 2003
21,638
5,213
FMD. Appears we're now leading the way in greenie wankery at Tigerland. Wish we'd concentrate a bit more on being excellent at playing footy n just quietly go about our core business instead of pretending to be leaders in saving the world.
 
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Sintiger

Tiger Legend
Aug 11, 2010
14,415
6,460
Camberwell
FMD. Appears we're now leading the way in greenie wankery at Tigerland. Wish we'd concentrate a bit more on being excellent at playing footy n just quietly go about our core business instead of pretending to be leaders in saving the world.
There is another choice TM which is you don’t read the thread.
 
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BT Tiger

Tiger Superstar
Jun 5, 2005
2,203
1,504
Warragul
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DavidSSS

Tiger Legend
Dec 11, 2017
6,992
9,147
Melbourne
Geez, they simply are vandals, don't care at all about the damage being done already by global warming.

This, at the same time as a significant article appears in Nature about the increases in the amount of burned forest in Australia aver the last few decades. It is worth reading the discussion section at the end of the Nature article:

We find an annual linear increase in the forest area burned in Australia over the past 32 years, with increases in all seasons and the largest interannual variability during summer. The growth in burned area is exponential for the autumn-winter period, although the largest absolute seasonal contributions to the increase were in spring and summer. These trends show a lengthening of the fire season towards the cooler seasons, where limited fire activity occurred in the early part of the satellite 32-year record. We also find that along the latitudinal temperature gradient South to North, fire activity increased the most at both ends of the gradient, with fires increasingly intruding into fire-sensitive forests: alpine forests in Tasmania in the South and tropical rainforests in Queensland in the North. Both trends, spatial and temporal, provide robust evidence for an increase in fire activity across forest ecosystems in Australia.

In addition, we find that the frequency of megafire years in forests with more than 10,000 km2 (1 Mha) burned has markedly increased since 2000. Together these trends have led to the rapid decrease in the number of years since the last fire. The mean YSLF values across the last four decades are still within the historical fire regimes reported for the same type of forests9, however, we find a growing trend in the number of pixels in which YSLF is decreasing (Fig. 4). A continuation of that trend, especially in areas with sensitive species, could lead to significant ecological changes. Examples of sensitive ecosystems are the mountain ash (Eucalyptus regnans) and alpine ash (Eucalyptus delegatensis) forests in Victoria. Both species are obligate seeders that require 20-30 years to reach maturity and begin to establish a seedbank able to recover the forest after fire62,63,64. Some regions in Fig. 4 show mean YSLF of about 20 years or less for the last decade. At this short fire return interval, if fires were to be of high severity leading to tree mortality (which this study has not assessed), both ecosystem-types would be at risk of local collapse.

We also show an increasing trend in very dangerous fire weather based on the FFDI for near surface conditions and C-Haines for lower to mid-tropospheric vertical atmospheric stability and humidity measures relevant to pyroconvective processes, consistent with previous studies15,40. We find strong correlations between those fire weather indices, long-term changes in climate and dry lightning with increase forest burned area. These multiple and individual correlations establish a robust and multi-evidence link between climate change and increased fire activity over the past three decades. Both increased temperature and shifts in large-scale rainfall patterns have very likely played a dominant role in observed burned area trends.

Two independent analyses were performed to investigate the possible role of prescribed burning and climate change on fuel loads. We found no changes in the mean annual area of prescribed burning over the past 32 years, although we have no information on how successful those burns were in reducing fuel loads. However, given the lack of trend and the fact that on average, only 1% of forests are subject to fuel reduction burns every year, it is very likely that fuel management had no effect on the observed multi-decadal increasing trend in the burned area of forest fires. We also note that the main objective of fuel management is to reduce fire risk and severity27, which might or might not result in reduced total burned area.

The evidence for the possible role of CO2 and climate effects on fuel loads is complex, with increased modelled total biomass due to elevated CO2 partially offset by the negative effects of climate change. The actual and future effects as climate and atmospheric CO2 continue to change is uncertain, with the only elevated CO2 experiment on eucalyptus forests in Australia finding no effect of CO2 on biomass production due to nutrient limitation65. We also found a potential decline in fine fuels, but increased dryness as suggested by proxy data, which led to decreased and increased fire risk, respectively.

Together, these results further underscore the dominant role of changes in fire weather and climate on the observed trends in burned area, and the need to further investigate the role of fuel loads in a changing environment.

Based on the strong correlations between FFDI and the observed trends of a number of other factors associated with climate change and fire weather, our analyses suggest that the observed trend of increasing burned area and frequency of forest megafires are likely to continue under future projected climate change. Consequently, there are considerable implications for emergency management, health, infrastructure, natural resource management and ecological conservation, noting the severe impacts that the 2019/2020 fire season had on these sectors in Australia.

It is not a pretty picture. We are less likely to have massive fires this year with the La Nina but the next El Nino could be seriously scary, Full article is here: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-27225-4

Still, I suppose ScoMo doesn't hold a hose so he simply doesn't give a f***.

DS
 

tigersnake

Tear 'em apart
Sep 10, 2003
19,731
2,975

What an absolute *smile*.
Incredible on a lot of levels. Highlights just how far the Fed Govt is out of step, clinging with their cold dead hands to coal. They are so pro coal they are at odds with BHP forchrissakes. They have BHP and other big companies telling them to tone it down.

Politically they are snookered here, its just a question of how badly. States sign up to a progressive initiative, Lib and ALP, it leaves them out in the cold. The Feds have 3 options on this, fall into line, ignore, seek to destroy. From their perspective, pro coal in increasingly anti-coal times, the smarter play would be to ignore, talk it down a little bit maybe if it unavoidably came up, but no, they seek to destroy. The fact they are taking that course highlights yet again just how crazy pro coal they are.
 
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eZyT

Tiger Legend
Jun 28, 2019
17,949
16,879
So everyone can relax.

The Bangalow Herald

just released its Sustainable Christmas edition.

and If you take their top tips

1. order an EV,

2. Build a sustainable house, and

3. re-crisp soggy crackers off your grazing plates with 5 minutes in an oven @ 180

we're all gonna be fine (hand on my heart)

* @Mr T. , a disturbing advertisement spruiking Jeff Browne for the Collingwood Board has appeared below as I write.
 

Mr T.

Administrator
Staff member
Aug 11, 2007
2,114
1
1,716
Melbourne
So everyone can relax.

The Bangalow Herald

just released its Sustainable Christmas edition.

and If you take their top tips

1. order an EV,

2. Build a sustainable house, and

3. re-crisp soggy crackers off your grazing plates with 5 minutes in an oven @ 180

we're all gonna be fine (hand on my heart)

* @Mr T. , a disturbing advertisement spruiking Jeff Browne for the Collingwood Board has appeared below as I write.
Maybe the ad is tracking you?
 
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eZyT

Tiger Legend
Jun 28, 2019
17,949
16,879
You should visit this https://whoisretargeting.me/ to see who is targeting you, can tell you what you've searched up and what you've looked at in the past. Those sneaky 'cookies' :)

seems very unfair that I have to endure Jeff Browne4president ads,

just cause I bought a bit of pseudo-ephedrine, some dentures and a few little golden books ?
 
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RoarEmotion

Tiger Superstar
Aug 20, 2005
1,863
1,568
Very interesting interview with a very successful venture capitalist on what needs to happen in 5 areas to get to co2 neutral (using the same approach he advised google to use to grow). It is a simple concept but the description of the amount of carbon we have left to put into the atmosphere to get to the 1.5C and the rate we are building at in simple terms I found quite compelling and depressing. This is probably my favourite pod now as the range and quality of interviewees is great.

https://people-i-mostly-admire.simp...-john-doerrs-plan-to-save-the-planet-tCU3e3Wc
 
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