Global Warming | PUNT ROAD END | Richmond Tigers Forum
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Global Warming

123cups

Tiger Champion
May 1, 2016
3,099
4,076
The study below puts the figure at 8%. Not a big ratio, but it equates to a substantial number of people.

Public Opinion on Religion and Science in the United States

That study says 2% of scientists believe in creationism.

And they only look at America (creationist hotbed), while polling a subset of scientists in the AAAS, which states they’re aiming to influence politics.

If the most favourable conditions possible for producing a creationist scientist only creates 2% of them, then what would be the real figure throughout the world?

No scientistic who understands the scientific method and has honestly attempted to learn even the basics of evolution can be a creationist. It’s directly contradictory to everything a scientist does.

Political agendas might influence the odd scientist to say otherwise.

If your basis for rejecting climate change is data from a creationist scientist covering a 2-5 generation timescale... I’d expect there’s significantly better data out there.

I don’t know anything on the topic though, so I’m just learning the basics from what I’m seeing by you guys on here and haven’t seen any data myself.
 

LeeToRainesToRoach

Tiger Legend
Jun 4, 2006
33,186
11,546
Melbourne
Just on this I don't think it's that simple.

No its not that simple. By "held accountable" I mean put on the stand to explain and have the reasoning put under the microscope. The strength of a Royal Commission is that it has the power to cut through all the *smile*.
 
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123cups

Tiger Champion
May 1, 2016
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Too much environmental care made these fires much worse than they needed to be.

The simple facts are that 40 years ago, prescribed burning in Victoria covered 300,000 hectares a year; in the lead up to Black Saturday it was 120,000 and in the past three years it was 65,000 (with much of that in the Mallee where it is of limited use).

There has been a dramatic shift away from prescribed burning despite numerous studies illustrating its benefits. It is only right that those responsible are held accountable.

I agree with this point though.

Environmental care ironically has become a policy that needs to go up in flames.
 

LeeToRainesToRoach

Tiger Legend
Jun 4, 2006
33,186
11,546
Melbourne
That study says 2% of scientists believe in creationism.

It pretty clearly says 8% of members of the American Association for the Advancement of Science believe that "man evolved over time guided by a supreme being". If that's not a refutation of evolution, it's its full brother.
 

123cups

Tiger Champion
May 1, 2016
3,099
4,076
It pretty clearly says 8% of members of the American Association for the Advancement of Science believe that "man evolved over time guided by a supreme being". If that's not a refutation of evolution, it's its full brother.

Aren’t we talking about creationism?

Creationists adopt a literal interpretation of the bible where everything “of a kind” was created in its “current form”.

What you’re referring to above is the subset of scientists who accept evolution as true, but when asked how the first cell came about, the say “God did it”.

You originally claimed “plenty of scientists are creationists, especially biologists”.

But in the world’s creationist hotbed, while polling a politically-minded association of scientists, only 2% are creationist and up to 8% believe “god did it” regarding the first cell.

Worldwide, there’s practically no scientists who are creationists, and zero biologists who are creationists.

Are your views on climate change largely influenced by creationist scientists such as the one you quoted earlier?

Could getting information from the fringes be problematic?
 
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IanG

Tiger Legend
Sep 27, 2004
18,087
3,323
Melbourne
Too much environmental care made these fires much worse than they needed to be.

The simple facts are that 40 years ago, prescribed burning in Victoria covered 300,000 hectares a year; in the lead up to Black Saturday it was 120,000 and in the past three years it was 65,000 (with much of that in the Mallee where it is of limited use).

There has been a dramatic shift away from prescribed burning despite numerous studies illustrating its benefits. It is only right that those responsible are held accountable.

Its not that simple:

 

LeeToRainesToRoach

Tiger Legend
Jun 4, 2006
33,186
11,546
Melbourne
Its not that simple:


No it's not simple, acknowledged. But the claim that "we are burning smarter, not more" needs to be closely scrutinised.

The article claims that "state governments are not necessarily doing less fuel reduction burns", which is patently untrue.

Also says "In Victoria, 130,044 hectares of public land was burned in 2018-19" without any context, inferring that it is a high figure.

The article's purpose is to hose down criticism. Bring on the investigation.

I don't think a national approach, as called for by the ex-fire chief, will work given the different terrains and vegetation from state to state. But I also don't think the states can be left to their own devices.
 
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LeeToRainesToRoach

Tiger Legend
Jun 4, 2006
33,186
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Melbourne
What you’re referring to above is the subset of scientists who accept evolution as true, but when asked how the first cell came about, the say “God did it”.

You originally claimed “plenty of scientists are creationists, especially biologists”.

Fair enough. I misinterpreted the purpose of a study when looking at numbers from each field of science, which heavily favoured biologists. I was wrong.

But there are a few about.
e.g.

Alfred, BraxtonEmeritus Professor of Anthropology, University of British Columbia. Has claimed that he tried systematically to indoctrinate students with evolution for 33 years before he discovered and was converted to Intelligent Design.

Interestingly, Spencer is not listed.
 
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Giardiasis

Tiger Legend
Apr 20, 2009
6,906
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Brisbane
Do the deniers here actually care about the environment we live in on this planet at all?
iu
 
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Brodders17

Tiger Legend
Mar 21, 2008
17,666
11,711
Too much environmental care made these fires much worse than they needed to be.

The simple facts are that 40 years ago, prescribed burning in Victoria covered 300,000 hectares a year; in the lead up to Black Saturday it was 120,000 and in the past three years it was 65,000 (with much of that in the Mallee where it is of limited use).

There has been a dramatic shift away from prescribed burning despite numerous studies illustrating its benefits. It is only right that those responsible are held accountable.
out of interest do you know how the proportion of 'burnable' land has changed since then?
I would guess as cities and regional centres have grown the land that could burn has shrunk.

No its not that simple. By "held accountable" I mean put on the stand to explain and have the reasoning put under the microscope. The strength of a Royal Commission is that it has the power to cut through all the *smile*.

it is also worth noting that half the planned burns could not be undertaken because of conditions, so they are still planning burns, some may have be cancelled because of rains but im guessing others were because it wasnt safe.
he wants to burn in late winter/early spring like they did 50 years ago, by early spring this year NSW was already burning.
 

LeeToRainesToRoach

Tiger Legend
Jun 4, 2006
33,186
11,546
Melbourne
out of interest do you know how the proportion of 'burnable' land has changed since then?
I would guess as cities and regional centres have grown the land that could burn has shrunk.

it is also worth noting that half the planned burns could not be undertaken because of conditions, so they are still planning burns, some may have be cancelled because of rains but im guessing others were because it wasnt safe.
he wants to burn in late winter/early spring like they did 50 years ago, by early spring this year NSW was already burning.

State forest is state forest. The 2009 RC along with other reports made recommendations based on percentage of "burnable land", rotating on a multi-year cycle. Burning on private property is a separate (but related) issue.

The criteria for what is considered "safe" have tightened considerably, and the resources allocated for each burn have increased markedly. Some have suggested that these impediments are deliberate obfuscation to protect the environment, which is the source of "red/green tape" comments.

Banning of logging and firebreaks comes into it, banning of grazing in the high country comes into it. Some have cited shortening autumn/spring pre-burn windows in defence of reduced pre-burning, yet Australia-wide rainfall (2019 excepted) has not declined.

Naturally, the less burning that takes place, the riskier prescribed burns become. We have another opportunity now to keep fuel loads manageable.

It is indeed complex, which is why the review needs to be all-encompassing.
 
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MD Jazz

Don't understand football? Talk to the hand.
Feb 3, 2017
13,329
13,714
No it's not simple, acknowledged. But the claim that "we are burning smarter, not more" needs to be closely scrutinised.

The article claims that "state governments are not necessarily doing less fuel reduction burns", which is patently untrue.

Also says "In Victoria, 130,044 hectares of public land was burned in 2018-19" without any context, inferring that it is a high figure.

The article's purpose is to hose down criticism. Bring on the investigation.

I don't think a national approach, as called for by the ex-fire chief, will work given the different terrains and vegetation from state to state. But I also don't think the states can be left to their own devices.

Agree, its not simple and blaming the greens etc is just ludicrous. And agree that a national approach may be too difficult. WA's experience is pretty compelling, hopefully a proper unbiased investigation will come up with some workable solutions.
 
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eZyT

Tiger Legend
Jun 28, 2019
21,435
25,783
Too much environmental care made these fires much worse than they needed to be.

that goes in the running for the Dumbest Things ever Typed on PRE Hall of Fame.

Sure, this particular Hall of Fame makes Richmond's life members room look like a meeting of The Extinction of Sooty Owls NOW! Coalition

but I nominate it all the same.
 

eZyT

Tiger Legend
Jun 28, 2019
21,435
25,783
yet Australia-wide rainfall (2019 excepted) has not declined.

excluding 'now' from a data set is unorthodox to put it nicely L2

let me give you another example of what that technique can do to the truth.

yet, it has now been 40 years since Richmond last won a premiership (2017, 2019 excepted)

I know this is pointless, buts I make the point for the benefit of the primary school aged kids who might be reading, thinking ' hmmmm L2 may have a point there'.

under many, increasingly vindicated, climate change models,

rainfall doesn't necessarily decline, its temporal and spacial distribution changes. It falls in different places or different times boys and girls.

where I live, for example, gets about 2000mm annually, historically with a predictable wet and dry season.

As the climate changed, we got a 1 in 100 year flood followed by a 1 in 100 year drought.

so in the last 5 years, we still got our historical 10 metres of rain, except distributed in a fashion which makes it very expensive and tough to try run a business, keep tourists happy, grow food, preserve infrastructure, catch and store water, conduct civil works, manage natural resources etc etc etc etc (the list is quite long kids, just google IPCC warnings and predictions, and what the best brains in the known universe said will happen, is happening. Oh, and kids, if you grow up to be a statistician and are set the assignment about power and integrity of data representation, it would be judicious to review L2's posts on this thread as your starting point on how data can be represented without any integrity or power)
 
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