Global Warming | PUNT ROAD END | Richmond Tigers Forum
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Global Warming

LeeToRainesToRoach

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Jun 4, 2006
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You can agree or not with the article but it has zero to do with Marxism.
"Our only chance is a thoroughgoing transformation. Specifically: “fundamental changes to global capitalism, education, and equality, which include inter alia the abolition of perpetual economic growth."

It's a far-left publication known for pumping up the likes of Bernie Sanders and slamming the major parties.

If you want a laugh, read the Australian's account of Tim Flannery's failed climate predictions, published yesterday. Doomsayers are pretty much always wrong.
 
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Sintiger

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Aug 11, 2010
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"Our only chance is a thoroughgoing transformation. Specifically: “fundamental changes to global capitalism, education, and equality, which include inter alia the abolition of perpetual economic growth."

It's a far-left publication known for pumping up the likes of Bernie Sanders and slamming the major parties.

If you want a laugh, read the Australian's account of Tim Flannery's failed climate predictions, published yesterday. Doomsayers are pretty much always wrong.
Missed the point.
Look through the rhetoric and concentrate on the science. Don’t concentrate on political philosophy because if climate change becomes about that then the discussion is doomed.
As I said, agree or disagree with the view on climate change but in my view political rhetoric and philosophy has nothing to do with it. It’s real or it’s not, doesn’t matter whether you are a Marxist or a fascist or anything else.
 

DavidSSS

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Dec 11, 2017
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If you want a laugh, read the Australian's account of Tim Flannery's failed climate predictions, published yesterday. Doomsayers are pretty much always wrong.

I'm not so desperate for a laugh that I would bother with the far right Australian.

What does it say, that after years of drought we have a massive rainfall event and the dams are full so climate change ain't happening. Usual bollocks.

DS
 

LeeToRainesToRoach

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Jun 4, 2006
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Scientists stunned to discover fossil plants beneath mile-deep Greenland ice


In the 1960s, U.S. Army scientists drilled down through nearly a mile of ice in northwestern Greenland — and pulled up a tube of dirt from the bottom.

Chester “Chet” Langway, who joined the UB geology faculty in the 1970s, was one of the leads of the drilling expedition, at a site known as Camp Century. The samples his team collected there, including the frozen sediment, followed him to Western New York. The materials resided here for a number of years before making their way to Copenhagen, Denmark. Then, the dirt was largely forgotten.

But in 2019, University of Vermont scientist Andrew Christ looked at the sediment through his microscope — and couldn’t believe what he was seeing: twigs and leaves instead of just sand and rock. That suggested that the area had been free of ice in the recent geologic past — and that a vegetated landscape stood where a mile-deep ice sheet as big as Alaska stands today.

Over the last year, Christ and an international team of scientists — including Elizabeth Thomas, assistant professor of geology in the UB College of Arts and Sciences — have studied these one-of-a-kind fossil plants and sediment from the bottom of Greenland. In addition to Christ, the research was led by Paul Bierman from the University of Vermont, Joerg Schaefer from Columbia University and Dorthe Dahl-Jensen from the University of Copenhagen.

“Our study examines in detail the sediments from beneath the Camp Century drill site on the northwestern part of the Greenland Ice Sheet. Our results suggest that at some point in the past 1 million years, the Camp Century site was ice-free,” says Thomas, who conducted chemical analysis that enabled the team to understand the types of plants that were on site.

“Ice sheets typically pulverize and destroy everything in their path,” says Christ, “but what we discovered was delicate plant structures — perfectly preserved. They’re fossils, but they look like they died yesterday. It’s a time capsule of what used to live on Greenland.”

The research was published March 15 in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS).

The discovery helps confirm a new and troubling understanding that the Greenland Ice Sheet has melted nearly completely during recent warm periods in Earth’s history. For example, in 2016, a study in Nature led by Schaefer and co-authored by UB geology professor Jason Briner estimated that a sample of bedrock from below the Greenland Ice Sheet was exposed to open sky for at least 280,000 of the last 1.4 million years.

Understanding the Greenland Ice Sheet in the past is critical for predicting how it will respond to climate warming in the future and how quickly it will melt.
 
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LeeToRainesToRoach

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La Nina kicking in.

UAH_LT_1979_thru_March_2021_v6.jpg
 
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LeeToRainesToRoach

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La Nina clue to sun’s power on climate (paywalled)​


Evidence is mounting that changes in the Sun’s magnetic energy has a much bigger influence on Earth’s weather and climate conditions than previously thought.

New research was able to predict the onset of La Nina weather conditions that produced torrential rains across eastern Australia before they happened, something not previously considered possible. The latest research was published in Earth and Space Science and funded by US space agency, NASA.

The accurate prediction of La Nina extends a six-decade pattern linking changes in magnetic activity in the Sun and El Nino-Southern Oscillation-driven weather conditions on Earth.

The accurate prediction is not proof of a link but dramatically lessens the chances of it being coincidence. The research, led by NASA scientist Robert Leamon from the University of Maryland, Baltimore, tries to “open a broader scientific discussion of solar coupling to the Earth and its environment.”

The exact mechanism that links the Sun’s activity to changes from El Nino to La Nina conditions is not yet understood but the findings add to the belief by some scientists that solar activity, including sunspots and cosmic rays, has a much greater impact on Earth’s climate than thought.

Researchers try to avoid being dragged into controversial theories that have put forward, but they say the findings open debate about the suitability of climate models and the relationship between incoming cosmic rays and clouds and precipitation over our oceans.

The latest research builds on research published last year in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, which was able to map the irregular solar cycle of sunspot activity on to a uniform solar cycle clock that takes place over a 22-year magnetic polarity cycle.

The NASA-funded research uses the new cycle to track changes in the El Nino and La Nina states.

“Using direct observation and proxies of solar activity going back some six decades, we can, with high statistical significance, demonstrate a correlation between the occurrence of terminators and the largest swings of Earth’s oceanic indices: the transition from El Nino to La Nina states of the central Pacific”, the research paper says.

“This empirical relationship is a potential source of increased predictive skill for the understanding of El Nino climate variations, a high‐stakes societal imperative given that El Nino impacts lives, property and economic activity around the globe.’’

The research was published in March 2021 but conducted before the La Nina phase that has just ended. It predicted a rapid transition into La Nina conditions in 2020 following the sunspot cycle 24 terminator.

“A forecast of the Sun’s global behaviour places the next solar cycle termination in mid-2020; should a major oceanic swing follow, the challenge becomes: when does correlation become causation and how does the process work?’’, the paper said.

Researchers presented clear evidence of a recurring empirical relationship between ENSO and the end of solar cycles.

The paper said ENSO was the largest mode of atmospheric variability driving costly extreme weather events on Earth.

Any improvement in prediction of the ENSO cycle would be of societal benefit, the scientists said.
 
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DavidSSS

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I do love the way the baseline for the UAH graph is 1991 to 2020. Let's pick the hot years as a baseline so it looks like March 2021 is not so hot.

Look at the temperature record for the years 1991 to 2020 - does this look like reasonable baseline?

temp-2020_comparison-plot.jpg


NASA use a more sensible baseline of 1951-1980.

But UAH distorting the way the data is presented surprises me not at all.

DS
 

LeeToRainesToRoach

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Jun 4, 2006
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I do love the way the baseline for the UAH graph is 1991 to 2020. Let's pick the hot years as a baseline so it looks like March 2021 is not so hot.
Was recently changed from 1980-2010 in line with the more recent data available (measurements commenced during 1979). It did not change the warming trend at all - still 0.14 degrees per decade.

You need to get over the fact that Spencer & Christy’s work is very highly regarded, and that the UAH/NOAA/NASA (that’s right, it’s a joint project) measurements provide the most comprehensive global coverage available.
 
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DavidSSS

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Recently changed their baseline to warmer years, and a shorter period. Yeah that works, if you want to present your data in a distorted way.

Highly regarded by whom? Murdoch and the shills he employs at the Australian?

The NOAA, who you cite above also have a graph of temperature changes, it looks like this:

Fig.-2-Global-trends.jpg


Bracketing the UAH data with NOAA and NASA (see above) makes no sense as they don't correlate. Unsurprisingly it is the UAH data which is out.

Satellite data has more statistical uncertainty than data from temperature gauges on the surface.

In the 1990s Christy and Spencer were claiming that the climate was cooling - and you criticise climate models which are far more accurate - see https://www.universetoday.com/14232...y-accurate-within-1-20th-of-a-degree-celsius/

Of course it is not easy to measure temperature using a satellite because they measure temperature indirectly, they do it using microwave sounding and then they have to convert the data to temperature, using an algorithm which the following flowchart shows the most important aspects of:

jgrd16826-fig-0002.png


This is in stark contrast to reading temperature off a thermometer, ie: a direct measure of temperature.

Do you seriously doubt climate change is happening and is having a dramatic impact on the world?

DS
 
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LeeToRainesToRoach

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Jun 4, 2006
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Recently changed their baseline to warmer years, and a shorter period. Yeah that works, if you want to present your data in a distorted way.
Some background for you.
Statistics calculated over standard periods (commonly a 30 year interval) are often called climate normals, and are generally used as reference values for comparative purposes. The period is long enough to include the majority of typical year to year variations in the climate, but no so long that it is significantly influenced by longer-term changes in climate. In Australia, the current reference climate normal is generated over the 30-year period 1 January 1961 to 31 December 1990.

 

RoarEmotion

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Aug 20, 2005
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Why change to more recent, hotter, years for the baseline?

DS
If you are looking at a slope it’s irrelevant what zero is.

but it would seem a chart since co2 levels started increasing with industrial revolution and wide spread use of fossil fuels and also ones over much longer time frames are likely to be more meaningful.
 

RoarEmotion

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Aug 20, 2005
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Terrestrial datasets are less accurate than satellite measurements. They were meant to be phased out by the satellites. That was before they were tortured to confess that the past was actually colder than we knew.
I’m out of my depth so I’ll back out as I haven’t put the effort in to understand the detail/accuracy of the historical temperature records.

I’m going on the assumption they are good so if that isn’t true then clearly a long term trend of bad data is not good!
 

LeeToRainesToRoach

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Jun 4, 2006
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I’m going on the assumption they are good so if that isn’t true then clearly a long term trend of bad data is not good!
Well they're far better than nothing but the older they are, the less representative they are. The systematic lowering of historical temps has been covered to death so I won't go into it again. There's also the heat island effect which is evident from the lower temps we've seen in Melbourne since the instrumentation was moved from the CBD out to Olympic Park.
 

DavidSSS

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Dec 11, 2017
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Melbourne
Well they're far better than nothing but the older they are, the less representative they are. The systematic lowering of historical temps has been covered to death so I won't go into it again. There's also the heat island effect which is evident from the lower temps we've seen in Melbourne since the instrumentation was moved from the CBD out to Olympic Park.

But surely if your conspiracy was true they wouldn't have moved the BOM instruments away from the city.

But I suppose you make a fair point, it must be all the scientists being paid megabucks to conspire together to falsify data worldwide and the poor fossil fuel industry just can't afford to buy them off as Institutes of Science are so much more cashed up than billion dollar corporations.

The reality is that the statistical uncertainty of satellite derived temp data is higher.

DS