Global Warming | PUNT ROAD END | Richmond Tigers Forum
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Global Warming

LeeToRainesToRoach

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Jun 4, 2006
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The same researchers who've poo-pooed the state of the Great Barrier Reef have furiously backpedalled to avoid a China-led bid to have the Reef officially declared "in danger". What is the truth, *smile* artists?

Great Barrier Reef avoids ‘in danger’ status at UNESCO meeting (paywalled)

A push to have the Great Barrier Reef’s health status downgraded to “in danger” has failed, an outcome viewed as a diplomatic victory by the federal government and a missed opportunity by environmental groups.

In a virtual meeting on Friday evening, the 21 member countries of the China-led UNESCO World Heritage Committee agreed to repeal a draft listing that would have changed the reef’s status without an on-the-ground assessment. An amendment by Bahrain that blocked the draft status listing was supported by Bosnia and Herzegovina, Ethiopia, Hungary, Mali, Nigeria, Oman, the Russian Federation, Saudi Arabia, Spain, Saint Kitts and Nevis and Uganda.

The amendment extends until next year the timeline for an updated report on the reef. UNESCO delegates will travel to Australia to examine the reef. The issue will then be considered by the World Heritage Committee at its 46th session in 2023.

The Morrison government said it was blindsided last month by the UNESCO heritage committee’s move to change the reef’s classification.

The proposal was based on concerns about the water quality and the impact of climate change. Environmental groups in the US and Australia had pushed for the reef to be placed on the “in danger” list, arguing not enough has been done to combat climate change.

Environment Minister Sussan Ley said the committee’s decision would allow reef managers, marine scientists and land managers a chance to demonstrate the “success of the outstanding work” across the reef.

“This has never been about Australia hiding from the challenges facing the reef or the pressures of climate change, it has been about ensuring a fair and transparent process for the reef and the people who work tirelessly to protect it,” Ms Ley said on Friday night.

“Crucially, tonight’s decision will allow the World Heritage Committee to develop a framework that ensures all properties, including the 83 identified through the World Heritage process as being at risk from climate change, to be treated in the same way.”

Labor environment spokeswoman Terri Butler labelled the decision an “indictment” on the Morrison government. “The deferral is a temporary reprieve,” she said.

The Australian Marine Conservation Society agreed that the outcome ramped up pressure on the federal government to act on climate change and the reef’s water quality. “It puts the Morrison government, as custodians of our reef, on probation,” said the society’s world heritage consultant, Imogen Zethoven.

“The responsibility lies with them to reduce emissions in line with limiting global warming to 1.5C – a level recognised by scientists as a crucial threshold for coral reefs.”

Last month, UNESCO said it had recommended the reef be downgraded to an “in danger” listing because bleaching in 2016, 2017 and last year had compounded pollution and water-quality issues.

The UN body said the “in danger” listing would be a call to action and an opportunity to spearhead global action on lowering carbon emissions to protect the world’s biggest reef.

Last month, 11 countries – including Spain, Hungary and France – backed Australia in denouncing UNESCO’s lack of consultation in proposing the draft listing.

The Australian revealed this week that an assessment by the Australian Institute of Marine Science found the reef was showing signs of recovery, with some of the best coral coverage recorded in years.But the institute’s chief executive, Paul Hardisty, warned the reef continued to face a significant threat from climate change.
 

DavidSSS

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Political pressure had way more to do with that than concerns for the reef.

China-led brief? I reckon they have far more important things they're worried about, nice line in conspiracy though.

DS
 

LeeToRainesToRoach

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Jun 4, 2006
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Political pressure had way more to do with that than concerns for the reef.

China-led brief? I reckon they have far more important things they're worried about, nice line in conspiracy though.
Hypocritical China uses the Great Barrier Reef as a pawn in its trade war against Australia by trying to have it declared 'in danger' and wipe out tourism - while it destroys huge reefs on its own coast to build military bases

China is complaining Australia's Great Barrier Reef is under threat from climate change while it tears up the South China Sea to build military bases.

Beijing is furiously building outposts in the powder-keg region, destroying huge bodies of lush reefs in its quest for military dominance.

The authoritarian regime's hypocrisy is not lost on on scientists who condemned its rampant destruction while using the Great Barrier Reef as a pawn in its economic coercion campaign against Australia.

Marine biology professor John McManus of the University of Miami said large patches of coral are 'gone forever' as a result of China's building.

'If you built something, if you've put dirt, rubble, and pavement… There's no way to recover that,' he told Radio Free Asia.

Beijing's construction of a number of concrete fishing and military outposts throughout the sea has received widespread international condemnation both because of its political and environmental consequences

Australia will contest a recommendation to list the Great Barrier Reef as a world heritage site 'in danger' after a United Nations body called for more government action on climate change

UNESCO have become heavily influenced by China and Australian officials allege the recommendation about the Great Barrier Reef is the Communist nation's latest way of applying political pressure

A draft recommendation from the UNESCO World Heritage Committee listed the reef's world heritage status as 'in danger' due to Australia's failure to address the effects of climate change on the 2,300km stretch of coral.

UNESCO is heavily influenced by Chinese officials, and its Australian members claim this is the latest move to apply political pressure to Australia.

The move is particularly hypocritical given their destruction to the South China Sea, home to 300,000sqm of coral reef.
 
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LeeToRainesToRoach

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No scientific consensus yet on whether warming Arctic may lead to more extreme weather

In the past month alone, Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands have suffered horrific flooding, Siberia caught fire, and the Arctic Sea suffered near-record melting.

Meanwhile, in North America, after record-high temperatures, formerly rare fire thunderstorms have become near-daily events.

There is one big theory connecting climate change to the weather patterns behind events as disparate as fire and floods, heatwaves and melting ice, across three different continents.

It is elegant, reasonably easy to understand and has profound implications — but because it is at the frontier of climate science, not all researchers are yet convinced.

In one respect, the influence of climate change on heatwaves is relatively straightforward, according to Andrew King from the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes at The University of Melbourne.

"We've warmed the planet by about 1.2 degrees Celsius and the land has warmed faster than the ocean," Dr King said.

"So, this allows heatwaves to be that bit hotter than they would be otherwise."

Dr King said a warmer atmosphere could also hold about 7 per cent more moisture for every degree Celsius of warming.

"That means storms that occur on very short timescales can rain out more than they would be able to in a world without global warming,: he said.

Instances of extreme weather can be driven by distinct weather patterns that allow rain or heat to build up over time because weather systems stall in one place instead of moving on.

If climate change is causing weather systems to stall for longer, they may build to more intense levels.

Late last month in Canada, a horseshoe-shaped high-pressure system called an Omega Block saw heat build up for days, leading to off-the-chart temperatures.

In Europe last week, a cut-off low pressure system stalled over Germany, dumping a month's worth of rain in a day.

The impact of climate change on how such individual weather patterns move is at the very limit of science.

"It's kind of like having a jigsaw but most of the pieces are missing," Dr King said.

"We have really incomplete observations in many parts of the world and they don't go back long enough in time to really track the climate for long enough."

That missing data — often from remote places like the Arctic — is needed to build computer models of unprecedented detail that can better predict weather patterns.

"We really need high-resolution simulations," Dr King said.

"We have a few studies with regional, high-resolution simulations that point to a climate change-caused intensification of short-duration extreme rainfall, including in Europe.

"That's quite a powerful line of evidence to suggest that climate change is [enhancing] — or has likely enhanced — the recent extreme rainfall we saw in Germany, the Netherlands and elsewhere.

"But we just don't have enough data to make really conclusive statements."

The missing data is crucial to answering one of the biggest questions in climate science: Are weather systems sticking around for longer in the Northern Hemisphere because of climate change?

The answer — which would connect heat, floods and fire — has everything to do with the jet stream.

Dr King says there is a belt of high-altitude winds that encircle the Northern Hemisphere, called the jet stream, and weather systems often follow that track.

Those winds are related to temperature differences between the cold polar regions and the warm tropics.

"In a warming world, we're seeing a bit more warming over higher latitudes in the polar regions than we see over the equator," Dr King said.

"And that reduces the temperature difference between the equator and the poles.

"The idea is that, if you reduce that temperature difference between the equator and the poles, both near the surface and higher up in the atmosphere, you might reduce the strength of the jet stream. And you might make it wavier or slower," he said.

A slower, wavier jet stream may allow storms to stick around longer, leading to more extreme weather.

But there is no conclusive evidence that the jet stream is slowing due to climate change.

"There are a variety of studies looking into this, some of which find evidence to suggest this is happening, particularly from the model-based studies, [and[ others, which suggest this isn't really happening," Dr King said.

One recent study used detailed computer modelling to show a warmer world would lead not only to more intense rain in Europe but also to slower storm movement.

However, its lead author — Abdullah Kahraman from Newcastle University in the United Kingdom — was at pains to qualify the limits of the study, saying it related to one very detailed computer simulation.

"This study does not really tell you that this will definitely be happening like that, because this is one scenario," Dr Kahraman said.

"Howver, when it comes to the jet stream issue, this is not the only simulation that is projecting some kind of decreasing wind speed in the higher atmosphere."

Other scientists have recently shown there may only be a modest decrease in high altitude winds due to a warming Arctic.

"It's basically an area of very active research, there are quite a few people around the world looking into this. And there is a diversity of views among scientists," Dr King said.

"At the very least, I think we can say that we don't have a great deal of confidence that this is a clear effect of climate change."

"But there is some indication that there might be more persistence of weather systems, as the jet stream may be allowing them to remain in place for longer.

"This could be contributing to some extreme weather events."
 

IanG

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Sep 27, 2004
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It was pure political lobbying that led to this result, nothing more. Certainly nothing to do with science. Plus if you look at the countries we lobbied to get to reject the decision, well none of those countries are exactly good world citizens which makes you wonder what exactly did we promise to them.
 
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AngryAnt

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ScoMo can't let Australia look bad, regardless of the real situation. Of course this kind of politicking and spin makes us look worse, not better.
 

AngryAnt

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What is the science if it can be turned on its head by the same bodies? There are doomsayers constantly claiming the reef is threatened, but just as many critics of the doomsayers saying it's *smile*.

"some people disagree therefore science is wrong". It's the same pathetic bleating we hear time and time again on climate change.

Here's some actual science for ya

1627110526808.png
 
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DavidSSS

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Just delaying the inevitable on the Great Barrier Reef being listed as under threat. Since it is under threat, it will be declared under threat sooner or later.

China can politic all it likes, make no difference to the reef unless we all do something to stop warming the planet.

DS
 
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LeeToRainesToRoach

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Jun 4, 2006
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Climate Scientist Warns ‘Next 20-30 Years Will Be Cold’

Climate scientist Dr. Willie Soon has urged his fellow academics to pay closer attention to the sun’s activity, which suggests several decades of global cooling rather than warming.

Speaking this week with Alex Newman of the New American, Soon, a Malaysian astrophysicist and aerospace engineer, said that “what we predict is that the next 20-30 years will be cold. It will be cold, so it will be a very interesting thing for the IPCC to confront.”

The sun is in a “weakened state” and far less active than during the 1980s and 1990s, Soon noted, which should last until “around 2050.”

“The whole climate system is powered 99.1 percent by the sun’s energy,” he stated.

Soon, a researcher at the Solar and Stellar Physics Division of the Harvard–Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, said that global cooling is a far greater source of concern than global warming.

“We will have a lot more problems were the planet to cool rather than warm,” Soon insisted.

Humanity can solve a lot of problems including overheating, but the problem of a “little ice age” like that of the 1700s, “those problems are much harder to solve,” he said.

“If you want to face a serious problem, worry about an ice age; never worry about global warming,” he declared.

Soon’s warnings dovetail with a report Wednesday of billions of dollars of Chinese investment into elite American universities to promote climate alarmism as “one of the Chinese Communist Party’s chief weapons against the United States of America.”

The U.S. State Department uncovered $6.5 billion in undeclared university funding, most of which came from China, in an attempt to “project ‘soft power,’ steal sensitive and proprietary research and development data and other intellectual property, and spread propaganda benefitting foreign governments.”

“It makes perfect sense that the Chinese Communists are manipulating fears of a climate catastrophe to its advantage,” the report noted. “The CCP wants the U.S. and other nations to pass laws making energy and manufacturing more expensive while they expand their economy, take our industries and our jobs and do so with little regard for the environment or human rights.”

“It is a strategic geopolitical tool used by China and other nations that want to weaken America, and the freedoms we enjoy,” it said.
 
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DavidSSS

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We'll see:

2167


DS
 
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LeeToRainesToRoach

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Science magazine article blows the whistle on model failure (paywalled)

Leading climate scientists conceded that models used to estimate how much the world will warm with rising levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere are running too hot.

“It’s become clear over the last year or so that we can’t avoid this,” Gavin Schmidt, director of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies, told Science magazine.

The admission is seen as a significant development by scientists who argue that not enough attention has been paid to natural cycles in the earth’s climate.

It puts another question mark over the use of the most extreme scenarios generated by models, RCP8.5, to estimate what could be expected in a warming world.

The concession has been made on the eve of this month’s release of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s report on the science of climate change.

That report, delayed a year because of Covid-19, is due to be released on August 9 and will outline what can be expected with different levels of warming.

It will play a major role in preparations for the upcoming climate change summit in Glasgow, Scotland, in November.

A Science article published this week said climate scientists faced the alarming reality that “climate models that help them project the future have grown a little too alarmist”.

“Many of the world’s leading models are now projecting warming rates that most scientists, including the model makers themselves, believe are implausibly fast”, the article said.

“In advance of the UN report, scientists have scrambled to understand what went wrong and how to turn the models, which in other respects are more powerful and trustworthy than their predecessors, into useful guidance for policymakers.”

In the past, most models projected a “climate sensitivity” – the warming expected when atmospheric carbon dioxide is doubled over pre-industrial times – of between 2C and 4.5C.

Last year, a landmark paper that used documented factors including ongoing warming trends calculated a likely climate sensitivity of between 2.6C and 3.9C but many of the new models from leading centres showed warming of more than 5C – uncomfortably outside these bounds.

The models were also out of step with records of past climate.

According to Science, the IPCC team will probably use reality – the actual warming of the world over the past few decades – to constrain model projections.

The IPCC report is also likely to present the impacts of different amounts of warming – 2C, 3C, 4C – rather than saying how quickly those impacts will be felt.

Steve Sherwood from the UNSW Climate Change Research Centre said “while it is true some new climate models have surprising climate sensitivities and predict very high future warming, what doesn’t always come through is that most new models have sensitivity values within the range estimated from observations”.

“Those models still predict substantial future weather and climate changes due to carbon dioxide, similar to predictions made by the science community for many years,” Professor Sherwood said.

US climate scientist Judith Curry said the IPCC report would certainly discuss the problem with climate models: “The elephant in the room for the IPCC is they are heavily relying on RCP8.5 emissions scenarios, which are now widely regarded as implausible.”

Michael Asten, an expert reviewer of the IPCC’s AR6 report, said the admission that climate models were running hot was a significant concession.
 

DavidSSS

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What we are seeing here is that the scientists have come up with new models for forecasting, and, before using them, compared the model projections to the past and found them wanting. So, they are flagging this before the IPCC report comes out and no doubt the issues they have found will be in the IPCC report.

As the article in Science points out, the IPCC will likely use reality to constrain the models.

What this shows is that science is working as it should, questioning its own results and casting a critical eye over everything.

What the scientists still find is that climate change is happening, is human caused and is having a large impact.

If you want to see the actual Science article it is here: https://www.sciencemag.org/news/202...onts-implausibly-hot-forecasts-future-warming I wouldn't trust the Murdochian to report anything honestly, climate change even more so.

DS
 

AngryAnt

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Nov 25, 2004
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yeah, the whole "science got it slightly wrong and is recalibrating and therefore science is bad" argument is.. not good. Almost as dumb as the CC is a Chinese Communist conspiracy!!!! theory. And you can bundle in the Covid anti-vax idiocy as well.

All coming from the same propaganda farms.
 
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LeeToRainesToRoach

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I wouldn't trust the Murdochian to report anything honestly, climate change even more so.
Just as I’d expect your preferred sources to ignore it totally because it doesn’t fit their biased narrative.

You’ve been a shameless shill for climate models and made all sorts of personal attacks in their name. How about some decency on your part and walking back your blind allegiance now that even the IPCC has conceded their flaws?
 

DavidSSS

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Just as I’d expect your preferred sources to ignore it totally because it doesn’t fit their biased narrative.

You’ve been a shameless shill for climate models and made all sorts of personal attacks in their name. How about some decency on your part and walking back your blind allegiance now that even the IPCC has conceded their flaws?

You just show how full of it you are.

Science is doing what science always does, uses the best data it has, makes predictions, then subjects those predictions to relentless scrutiny.

The Murdoch press and RWNJ News just start with their position and go for it whether the evidence supports it or not. To claim their narrative is somehow unbiased, especially after being repeatedly debunked, is just stupidity.

The models have been very good over the years, precisely because scientists, unlike the ideologues Murdoch employs, constantly analyse their hypotheses and their findings. This is why the scientists have flagged issues with the latest models, before the IPCC report comes out. Murdoch, RWNJ News and the rest of the deniers don't admit fault even when their crackpot rubbish is exposed for the baseless crap it is.

We all know climate change is happening, we can all see the impacts, why do you keep trying to deny reality and clutch on to the crap the deniersphere trots out?

DS
 

LeeToRainesToRoach

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Jun 4, 2006
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You just show how full of it you are.
Show some decency and humility you goddamn arrogant sonofabitch and make a concession for once in your accursed history on this site.

The models overcooked the forecasts. They were wrong. You were wrong. It wasn't an invitation for you to go on the attack!

For *smile*'s sake.
 

DavidSSS

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They keep trying to make the models better, even though, as NASA pointed out a couple of years ago, their long term climate predictions were within 1/20th of a degree of being spot on. They made new models, looked at the results, found they were not as accurate as they liked, and flagged that there were issues. This is how science works.

It is the complete opposite to how denialism works, they just double down, as you constantly do.

We all know climate change is happening, we can all see the impacts, why do you keep trying to deny reality and clutch on to the crap the deniersphere trots out?

DS
 

AngryAnt

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Nov 25, 2004
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Show some decency and humility you goddamn arrogant sonofabitch and make a concession for once in your accursed history on this site.

The models overcooked the forecasts. They were wrong. You were wrong. It wasn't an invitation for you to go on the attack!

For *smile*'s sake.

Lee, the models were out by about 1 degree in a 5 degree warming scenario where the atmospheric CO2 has doubled. Either way, we are still cooking. Like science always does, they will recalibrate and amend the models. That's how science works.

If you don't understand how science works and choose to blindly follow the Murdoch line, that's your problem and shame on you for your gullibility.
 
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