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Have we bottomed out or not?
- Thread starter checkside
- Start date
Course we have, 16th is bottom so we can't get any lower unless someone digs us a ditch. ;Dcheckside said:
Got a feeling that we are gunna bounce our raggedy arses rather badly this year.
Hopefully by the end of this year some of the kids get a few games in and a couple show us a package of highlights for the future.
The scary thing about our list is that many supporters think that it will all be turned around and we will be chasing flags by 08/09. Reality would suggest that we will be in a position to start contesting finals by about 09, hopefully if they have done a decent recruiting and developing job we'll be around those finals for four or five years onwards.
Another general question.
Currently, when examining the spread of our list, you will see that the bulk of our players are either in the 18-21 group, or the 27+ group. To me, this means that the boys are performing up to their current capability.
However, what will happen when that upper echelon of Gaspar, Kellaway, Richo, Stafford, Chaffey & Brown all retire, and Johnson, Bowden, Simmonds, Tivendale, Hall & Knobel all move into that twilight phase of their careers when regular injuries occur.
The juniors, the bulk of which are currently 19-20yo, will be 21-22yo, They'll just be entering their developmental stage, ie from 22-24, where players make the bulk of their improvement. Therefore, if in a couple of years the team will be relying on these players, then many inconsistant performances are going to occur.
My point is, if you see this current bottoming out as the nadir to which we will lift up from in the short term, then bad luck. Our really poor recruiting took place from 1999 up till 2003. It's usually a 6 year lag from the time you improve your recruiting to the time you see the results for it. We are now, currently, paying for our poor recruiting during that black spot.
The Tiges started to improve their recruiting from 2004. 2009/10 is when the results of our new recruiting will take hold and consistant improvement will occur.
So, have we reached the very bottom? Not sure as yet, but we will have to endure a couple more years of pain before we see any real improvement.
That's why I'm not too fazed about what's going on. We are, where we are, and its just a matter of making sure we stay on the correct pathway to the end of the tunnel.
I'd probably place us at around 1991/92 in the club's historical cycle. More recruiting of the types that we need will get us closer to 1994/95. Then the real challenge is to leap higher than that barrier.
But this is just my opinion.
Currently, when examining the spread of our list, you will see that the bulk of our players are either in the 18-21 group, or the 27+ group. To me, this means that the boys are performing up to their current capability.
However, what will happen when that upper echelon of Gaspar, Kellaway, Richo, Stafford, Chaffey & Brown all retire, and Johnson, Bowden, Simmonds, Tivendale, Hall & Knobel all move into that twilight phase of their careers when regular injuries occur.
The juniors, the bulk of which are currently 19-20yo, will be 21-22yo, They'll just be entering their developmental stage, ie from 22-24, where players make the bulk of their improvement. Therefore, if in a couple of years the team will be relying on these players, then many inconsistant performances are going to occur.
My point is, if you see this current bottoming out as the nadir to which we will lift up from in the short term, then bad luck. Our really poor recruiting took place from 1999 up till 2003. It's usually a 6 year lag from the time you improve your recruiting to the time you see the results for it. We are now, currently, paying for our poor recruiting during that black spot.
The Tiges started to improve their recruiting from 2004. 2009/10 is when the results of our new recruiting will take hold and consistant improvement will occur.
So, have we reached the very bottom? Not sure as yet, but we will have to endure a couple more years of pain before we see any real improvement.
That's why I'm not too fazed about what's going on. We are, where we are, and its just a matter of making sure we stay on the correct pathway to the end of the tunnel.
I'd probably place us at around 1991/92 in the club's historical cycle. More recruiting of the types that we need will get us closer to 1994/95. Then the real challenge is to leap higher than that barrier.
But this is just my opinion.
A fairly accurate response I'd say phanto.
I think this will be the "absolute bottoming out" year as far as talent on the list goes - provided those who are in control can make some firm decisions. After that we may not win as many games, but the talent will or should be there, it will be just a case of waiting for the wine to mature, rather than putting vinegar out there which has been the case for the past 4-5 years (talent wise).
I think this will be the "absolute bottoming out" year as far as talent on the list goes - provided those who are in control can make some firm decisions. After that we may not win as many games, but the talent will or should be there, it will be just a case of waiting for the wine to mature, rather than putting vinegar out there which has been the case for the past 4-5 years (talent wise).
well the honeymoon period wallace and his players is well and truly over. This we know.
can we bring down 5 teams above us, in the remaining 19 games?
If we can't then we get 1, 17, 18, in the draft. 5, 10 and 15 would look alright in that mix too ;D .
We can draft some future 'favourite sons'.
might cost us one or two out of the curent crop though
If we can get a 1-30 draft pick for any (not Tuck) of our blokes older than 22...do it.
can we bring down 5 teams above us, in the remaining 19 games?
If we can't then we get 1, 17, 18, in the draft. 5, 10 and 15 would look alright in that mix too ;D .
We can draft some future 'favourite sons'.
might cost us one or two out of the curent crop though
If we can get a 1-30 draft pick for any (not Tuck) of our blokes older than 22...do it.
No we bottomed out in 2004.
It was a wakeup and shakeup, from the reallity that the current team was never going to play finals let alone threaten for the premiership.
We are still enduring pain but we are putting the foundations in place even if they are only small at this stage.
It was a wakeup and shakeup, from the reallity that the current team was never going to play finals let alone threaten for the premiership.
We are still enduring pain but we are putting the foundations in place even if they are only small at this stage.
I only shudder to think what collingwood would have done to us yesterday. Thank god we dont play them till round 13 at the G!!!
The Doggies at the moment are displaying how big a lag there is between recruiting and performing.Phantom said:
They had a bunch of good youngish developed players when plough started coaching them, ie. West, Grant, Darcy, Johnno etc. He added skilled young kids,runners like Guido, Murphy, Eagle, Gilbee etc. These players that he added have now after four to six years become the core of the side, backed up by the first group of old stagers who have been there forever makes a pretty solid list.
Spread a little bit of fresh cream in Coondog and Griffen which they picked up after the hiccup that occured when plough left and finals are calling if injuries don't bury them.
The doggies have three bunches of fairly bloody good quality reasonably well balanced barring injuries and each group takes around five years to properly develop as a consistent playing core.
As we've been missing in that mid group for ages it's left us open to slumps and patchy performances for what seems like forever.
We've got a heap of drafting to do over the next four years on top of our current under twenty four year olds to give us any chance of being a genuine side.
On pure results (wins/losses) this could be a bottom out year.
We could win less than 5 games (which we've done before).
It probably seems more disappointing right now b/c we've got some kids who we all know will be good, but not for a few more years. When we were filled with rejects from other clubs we all knew in the back of our mind that it was a flawed policy.
The real 'bottom out' was over 5 years ago when we decided we didn't need to draft any good kids. It's just taken us til now to see that show up on the scoreboard!
We could win less than 5 games (which we've done before).
It probably seems more disappointing right now b/c we've got some kids who we all know will be good, but not for a few more years. When we were filled with rejects from other clubs we all knew in the back of our mind that it was a flawed policy.
The real 'bottom out' was over 5 years ago when we decided we didn't need to draft any good kids. It's just taken us til now to see that show up on the scoreboard!