How many Wins needed to make the 8?

[GoodOne]

If the top 3 teams keep their win loss records up, then you have a chance with 10 games. I dont think the top 8 is closed...Brisbane still arent the real deal and you cant write Port off, even though they are still so far behind.

Last time this happened was in 1995. Highly unlikely that 10 games will make the 8 as it shouldn't. What a false pretense to be in the 8 when you've lost 12 games for the season. 1996 and 1997 10 and a half wins made it. Since then 12 wins or more have been more the norm.

 

[evo]

when did we bottom out. if it happened its news to me.

Yeah, exactly.It's news to me too.

Bottoming out is when you unload underacheivours-we still recruit them from other clubs each year!

 

[GoodOne]

when did we bottom out. if it happened its news to me.

when did stkilda bottom out.oh thats right 1999 thru 2002 the bulk of their 04 05 preliminary finals team was built then.they havent been able to maintain it because of very poor recruiting since 2003.

how long do i want to bottom out for. thats easy as long as it takes for us to get the necessary quality to play regular finals over a 4 or 5 yr period.

Oh yes the Tigers haven't bottomed out but West Coast have. You're a laugh a minute there Clawsey. Look up the definition of 'bottom'. Means below, behind the pack, last to pass the post in a two-horse race. The Tigers have bottomed out alright, over 25 years, and it's done jack for us. Forget bottoming out. The formula is simple, recruit well, get a winning never die attitude, work for your team mates, bust your gut at every opportunity and you'll win matches. Get depth, a champion team, not a team of champions. Saints are a team of champions, there is a cultural problem, that is why they haven't made it to the pinnacle. The Tigers made preliminary finals as well, means jack, the aim is to win a premiership, not nearly get there. My guess is you've never played or coached a sport at any sort of peak level have you Claws? Because if you had you wouldn't have this crap attitude. Any coach of a team sport will tell you what is required to be the best, and I can tell you tanking to get top picks isn't on the agenda. The best football sides in history never needed to consider the 'tank'. If they failed they worked harder. And consider this question, the Tigers have been poor for a long time. If I am a porspective draftee or wanting to move clubs, would the Tigers be my first choice? Most likely not. Why not? Because most players will tell you their ultimate goal is to win a premiership. Why would you want to go to a club who's first philosophy is the 'tank' - money maybe as in the case of Mr Judd - but very few other reasons. We need to change our culture into a winning one, then players want to play for you, and this circle self-fulfills.

Tactically the tank is at the bottom of the heap in my book.

 

[GoodOne]

Yeah, exactly.It's news to me too.

Bottoming out is when you unload underacheivours-we still recruit them from other clubs each year!

Huh? You should be unloading underachievers all the time. That's how successful teams manage to stay at the pinnacle for long periods of time.

 

[the claw]

You want a quick fix. It occurs to me that the most important thing is getting the process right and sustaining it in the long term. If we do get a lot more high draft picks quickly we may be fooled into thinking that we only need to top up in the future like the Saints and Carlton and we won't sustain it.

Therefore IMHO we need to focus on the process, get it set in stone so it will survive changes in personnel, focus on developing the young players as they move into our system, and develop a winning culture.

do you think we have the processes right atm. believe it or not actually bottoming out properly and actually useing and trading into more draft picks may show those fools in charge how to go about things the right way.

i wonder where do people really think the list is at. not far advanced on 2004 imo. the reason we have not advanced because we have not gone thru the right processes.in 2004 i thought we had 35 to turn over. in 2008 we still have around 25 to turn over how are we going to go past top teams if we continually miss out on the best players available in each draft.

people are talking about upheaval if we dont improve our ladder position this yr.
well imo its better to finish low this yr than next yr.watch the *smile* hit the fan then. imo we are looking like a bottom 6 club for the next 2 or 3 yrs. why is that? because we dont have the quality to take us forward and we dont have the right list structure.we are not going to get a look at high quality finishing just outside the 8this yr, and we wont get another look for awhile because of the new teams coming in.

 

[the claw]

So finishing last 4 years in a row is the only way to win? Strange logic there Claw, I think you should be looking at the successful clubs and analysing all the facets which contribute to team success. List management is important but without a winning culture you are battling against the odds.

Let me put it to you this way, say we finished last and ended up with Naitanui and Rich, Wallace would be sacked as a result, the club would be in turmoil and we would probably end up with Sheedy or a rookie coach. The new coach would then be under enourmous pressure to deliver results and would be forced into making short term quick fixes. You would probably be looking at some sort of player exodus and as a result, disenchantment would spread through the ranks like a cancer.

Is 25 years of this merry-go-round insufficient evidence for you?

Club stability is perhaps the most important ingredient from here and whilst I see your point about list management, I don't subscribe to the theory that you have to finish bottom in order to get there. What do Nathan Foley, Will Thursfield and Matt White all have in common? They are players who weren't picked in the National draft yet are eclipsing many of their child prodigy counterparts.

Taking a kid with skills and turning him into a professional athlete and footballer is more than just calling out a number on draft day, it requires an environment which demands excellence. Going out and deliberately losing football games is not the way to bring the best out in a young footballer, in fact it breeds mediocrity and instills the belief that losing is an acceptable practice.

winning culture its all bulldust. winning culture is directly linked to having the cattle capable of winning nothing more nothing less. you dont need a team of champions to win a flag but you do need enough high quality players spread thru your side to help the good solid contributors. you think this is wrong go ask wce what happens when you lose your quality players.the only way you will get your hands on a judd or cousins is very early in the nd or thru f/s selections. both naitanui and rich are future champions. imo considering where we are at the club would be derelict in its duty to not do all in its power to get these kids. considering where the list is at tanking is a legit means of achiving what we need.

 

[Tigers of Old]

winning culture its all bulldust. winning culture is directly linked to having the cattle capable of winning nothing more nothing less. you dont need a team of champions to win a flag but you do need enough high quality players spread thru your side to help the good solid contributors. you think this is wrong go ask wce what happens when you lose your quality players.

Interesting you've now accepted that West Coast are a completely crap side without two of their revered engine room. ;
Or are they tanking? Now I'm confused.

I have agreed with you on keeping our low picks and that does make an enormous amount of sense.
I think we need to continue doing that and scouting for the best talent in the land whether that is pick one, seven or sixteen.
Hopefully the club strengthening the recruiting department pays off.

What I will not agree on is that a winning culture is bulldust and that a losing one is a sure fire means to success.
Will four years of number one draft selections win you a premiership? There is simply no evidence to support this.

I also think that bullus's point of being successful gives your players more value is a very valid one.
That has been a big problem of ours in gathering more draft pics for our players at trade time because we are tainted with a losing culture.
Many of even our best players would be underrated at the trade table.

 

[Tiger74]

To get Nat and Rich, how do you plan on doing this?

The reality is this year Melbourne, Essendon, and even Freo are more crap than us, and the odds of us losing to these guys and actually finishing below 4.5 wins were remote unless we gave players instructions to throw the game.

 

[Col.E.Kurtz]

That has been a big problem of ours in gathering more draft pics for our players at trade time because we are tainted with a losing culture.
Many of even our best players would be underrated at the trade table.

I can guess at least one player whose performance on Saturday night on a winnning team might be trotted out to pump up value come trade week.

 

[richards42]

I'll see how we go after we play Sydney and the Crows. They really are the make or break games for us. If we get over those two and beat the teams we should beat ( especially carlton) i have a good feeling about finals this year. Lose to those 2 and we are no chance.

 

[the claw]

Well said Oldie, it is one of the greatest myths of all time that getting the number 1 pick guarantees success, every year the best player comes from elsewhere in the draft.

Look at Carlton, overloaded with high draft picks yet still without a blue collar defence capable of winning a premiership.

Naitanui would be nice but so would a host of other players around the pick 5-7 mark, I'm still not sure if the big Fijian will be the superstar everyone is raving on about, still carries a little risk in my opinion.

A winning culture is by far more important, Sydney is a prime example, a host of no-names but a damn impressive football team if you ask me. This is the model we should be striving towards and not some team laden with underperforming high picks.

Lucky 7 in this years draft could land a Ryder, Selwood or Palmer, players not to be scoffed at in my opinion.

Two bottom finishes is enough, I'm stoked we got Cotchin last year but I'm not prepared to accept mediocrity anymore.

Success breeds success, even at draft time, once you start winning your players automatically go up in value, this can be extremely beneficial if we have to trade up in order to meet our needs.

I don't believe we will challenge this year but I've been convinced we have a bright future, tanking would be travesty and counterproductive. I can't believe people are talking about it when we are still a legitimate chance for the finals. Very sad indeed.

so carlton are overloaded with high draft picks. since 2001 they have used 6 first round picks no more than collingwood 2 less than ess and 2 less than us. we have used just 3 picks in 6 yrs in the top 5. carlton have had 5 top 5 picks. ithink it a bit of a myth that carlton have more first round picks than anyone else i would say most clubs are on a par.
as for lets say top 5 picks in each draft it certainly is the case thaat its more than likely you are going to pick up a very good player with one of these picks and at worst a good player.

you saidit yourself ryder selwood palmer at 7 tanking will get you a crack at two inside the 7.

you say no more mediocrity so what do you call this yr we are so far of the pace we cant afford to look a gift horse in the mouth.
you mention sydney being no names. they are in a unique situation. wiyh extra salary cap room and nine rookies they can afford to trade. but they still have 17 odd first or second round picks on their list.

you dont really believe us a finals contender do you i believe we have one of the worst 3 lists in the comp hence my call for the tank.

 

[gold1]

so carlton are overloaded with high draft picks. since 2001 they have used 6 first round picks no more than collingwood 2 less than ess and 2 less than us. we have used just 3 picks in 6 yrs in the top 5. carlton have had 5 top 5 picks. ithink it a bit of a myth that carlton have more first round picks than anyone else i would say most clubs are on a par.
as for lets say top 5 picks in each draft it certainly is the case thaat its more than likely you are going to pick up a very good player with one of these picks and at worst a good player.

you saidit yourself ryder selwood palmer at 7 tanking will get you a crack at two inside the 7.

you say no more mediocrity so what do you call this yr we are so far of the pace we cant afford to look a gift horse in the mouth.
you mention sydney being no names. they are in a unique situation. wiyh extra salary cap room and nine rookies they can afford to trade. but they still have 17 odd first or second round picks on their list.

you dont really believe us a finals contender do you i believe we have one of the worst 3 lists in the comp hence my call for the tank.

:Panzer,British,or a group of trying tigers in this tank? :

 

[bullus_hit]

Come on Claw, according to you the only two players worth getting are Naitanui and Rich, my point about Ryder, Selwood and Palmer is that the difference between 1 and 7 is negligible at best. It's been pointed out on numerous occasions that the top 20 is largely speculative and one can strike gold anywhere. You seem to have adopted the Carlton philosophy with regards to losing and that is yet to bear fruit.

Try doing a few retrospective drafts and I guarantee the order will be vastly different to the order of names called on draft day.

 

[Scoop]

I don't have any problem picking from whatever spot we end up with but I do have massive problems when every year we go and get a B grader at a A grade price. If we keep doing that with out bottoming out or making a commitment to use every pick we have (and try and get more picks) then we will be conitually stuck in footballing limbo.

Then the RFC simply put that overpriced pick up in a spot that most of the peons will consider to be a success. The now famous Wallace LMID role. Give it to the new boy every now and agin and it makes the pick up look like a stroke of genius.

 

[Ruthless Tigers ?]

claw many times I agree with what you say, but not this time. I truly cannot accept tanking as an option. I think its almost cheating, cheating yourself, cheating the club and cheating the spirit of the game. Yes others may have done it, we cannot prove it but we can all assume it. No self respecting side would consider tanking no self respecting side would throw away hard earned respect on the off chance that a kid may turn out to be a champion. Finishing last does not guarantee that the #1 is going to be a gun player. Look at Hird and Carey along with other later draft picks. Some of these have the necessary desire to work hard, to succeed. I maintain that a winning culture is what we need and this will go a long way to setting us up for a long future.

But I agree...there are many deficiences that need to be addressed before we become truly successful

 

[timYCW#7]

No way are we going to make the 8. so many times before it has happened : started off on fire and then trailed off towards the end of the season, yet this year we havn't even started off well. As competitively as we have played lately, we still only have 3 and a half wins, and i can't see us winning adelade or sydney in the next 2 weeks.

I think Port Adelade will still finish 5-6 and brisbane top 4.

 

[IanG]

do you think we have the processes right atm. believe it or not actually bottoming out properly and actually useing and trading into more draft picks may show those fools in charge how to go about things the right way.

Like I said it didn't work for St Kilda and it looks like Carlton may go the same way. I don't trust us enough that we wouldn't go the same way. The Hawks are another matter but they are one out of the box IMHO. I believe we are moving in the right direction with resources being invested in the right areas, do you deny this? Plus there is the issue of the stability of the club at the moment, as Bullus Hit said, which would not remain if we had another extended stay at the bottom, and under your ideas we would be spending at least 3-4 years near the bottom.

i wonder where do people really think the list is at. not far advanced on 2004 imo. the reason we have not advanced because we have not gone thru the right processes.in 2004 i thought we had 35 to turn over. in 2008 we still have around 25 to turn over how are we going to go past top teams if we continually miss out on the best players available in each draft.

No mate turning over 25 is just your opinion, no-one elses, don't make out like its an absolute.

 

[GoodOne]

claw many times I agree with what you say, but not this time. I truly cannot accept tanking as an option. I think its almost cheating, cheating yourself, cheating the club and cheating the spirit of the game. Yes others may have done it, we cannot prove it but we can all assume it. No self respecting side would consider tanking no self respecting side would throw away hard earned respect on the off chance that a kid may turn out to be a champion. Finishing last does not guarantee that the #1 is going to be a gun player. Look at Hird and Carey along with other later draft picks. Some of these have the necessary desire to work hard, to succeed. I maintain that a winning culture is what we need and this will go a long way to setting us up for a long future.

But I agree...there are many deficiences that need to be addressed before we become truly successful

Great post DHN. The key is to plan for longegivity by being very diligent with your recruiting, something we know the Tigers have not been good at. Trying to finish bottom to negate your deficient abilities to recruit well seems like a weird way to grow successful.