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Last Man Standing Winner is Sammy C
- Thread starter YinnarTiger
- Start date
- Status
Re: Last Man Standing Round 9 closes 8.10pm tonight
| PREnder | Cannot pick Round 9 | Round 9 | ||
| 14tempany | Coll, WCE, GWS, Port | |||
| DanMinogue | Geel, WCE, Syd, Port | |||
| evo | Coll, WCE, GWS, Port | Geelong | ||
| gold1 | WCE, Adel, Coll, Ess | Port Adelaide | ||
| Ian4 | Coll, WCE, GWS, Port | North Melbourne | ||
| larabee | Coll, WCE, GWS, Port | Geelong | ||
| LeeToRainesToRoach | Coll, WCE, GWS, Port | Geelong | ||
| Letsroar | Geel, Coll, Syd, GC | GWS | ||
| mainlandy | Coll, GWS | Essendon | ||
| mrposhman | Coll, WCE, GWS, Port | |||
| Sammy C | Coll, WCE, GWS, Port | Geelong | ||
| scottyturnerscurse | Coll, GWS | West Coast | ||
| SkillzThatKillz | Coll, WCE, GWS, Port | Adelaide | ||
| The Big Richo | Coll, Bris, GWS, North | Port Adelaide | ||
| tigerdave | Coll, WCE, GWS, Port | Richmond | ||
| tigerman | Coll, WCE, GWS, Port | |||
| tommystigers | Coll, WCE, GWS, Port | |||
| YinnarTiger | Geel, WCE, Syd, Port | Collingwood |
Re: Last Man Standing Round 9 closes 8.10pm Friday May 17
Logic doesn’t make sense to me at all but if they are the rules I’m out. All good and no I’ll will at all. . Suggest change the rules next time though.
If I have less to chose from I have forgone a potential choice so no benefit to not putting tips in before first game.
YinnarTiger said:
Logic doesn’t make sense to me at all but if they are the rules I’m out. All good and no I’ll will at all. . Suggest change the rules next time though.
If I have less to chose from I have forgone a potential choice so no benefit to not putting tips in before first game.
Re: Last Man Standing Round 9 closes 8.10pm Friday May 17
Competitors in this game are not just rewarded for picking winners. Rather the objective is to avoid picking a loser.
To go back to the example of Round 8, by entering your tip on Saturday you have foregone the choice of Essendon or Sydney for your tip that round.
If each team has an equal chance of being eliminated (not true obviously, but assume for the purpose of the argument), you had 14 chances of being eliminated, while everyone who tipped on time had 16 chances. So everyone else had a greater chance of being eliminated.
Continue that comparison for missing the first game of the round to missing the first eight games of the round with only one game left to choose the winner. At which game do you stop?
The numbers will be different in other rounds, and while it's obviously impossible to subjectively calculate the probability of a loss for each team, we can subjectively state that in general the probability of elimination is lessened by reducing the number of teams to choose from.
Suppose somebody had tipped Essendon in the Friday game, would it be fair to then accept tips in other games later that round? No-one tipped Essendon but the reason for the cut-off time is to prevent the possibility of all the "What if..."s occurring.
RoarEmotion said:
Competitors in this game are not just rewarded for picking winners. Rather the objective is to avoid picking a loser.
To go back to the example of Round 8, by entering your tip on Saturday you have foregone the choice of Essendon or Sydney for your tip that round.
If each team has an equal chance of being eliminated (not true obviously, but assume for the purpose of the argument), you had 14 chances of being eliminated, while everyone who tipped on time had 16 chances. So everyone else had a greater chance of being eliminated.
Continue that comparison for missing the first game of the round to missing the first eight games of the round with only one game left to choose the winner. At which game do you stop?
The numbers will be different in other rounds, and while it's obviously impossible to subjectively calculate the probability of a loss for each team, we can subjectively state that in general the probability of elimination is lessened by reducing the number of teams to choose from.
Suppose somebody had tipped Essendon in the Friday game, would it be fair to then accept tips in other games later that round? No-one tipped Essendon but the reason for the cut-off time is to prevent the possibility of all the "What if..."s occurring.
Re: Last Man Standing Round 9 closed
| PREnder | Cannot pick Round 9 | Round 9 | Result | ||
| 14tempany | Coll, WCE, GWS, Port | Geelong | :fing32 | ||
| DanMinogue | Geel, WCE, Syd, Port | GWS | |||
| evo | Coll, WCE, GWS, Port | Geelong | :fing32 | ||
| gold1 | WCE, Adel, Coll, Ess | Port Adelaide | |||
| Coll, WCE, GWS, Port | North Melbourne | :thumbdown | |||
| larabee | Coll, WCE, GWS, Port | Geelong | :fing32 | ||
| LeeToRainesToRoach | Coll, WCE, GWS, Port | Geelong | :fing32 | ||
| Letsroar | Geel, Coll, Syd, GC | GWS | |||
| mainlandy | Coll, GWS | Essendon | :fing32 | ||
| Coll, WCE, GWS, Port | DNP | :thumbdown | |||
| Sammy C | Coll, WCE, GWS, Port | Geelong | :fing32 | ||
| scottyturnerscurse | Coll, GWS | West Coast | :fing32 | ||
| Coll, WCE, GWS, Port | Adelaide | :thumbdown | |||
| The Big Richo | Coll, Bris, GWS, North | Port Adelaide | |||
| tigerdave | Coll, WCE, GWS, Port | Richmond | |||
| Coll, WCE, GWS, Port | North Melbourne | :thumbdown | |||
| tommystigers | Coll, WCE, GWS, Port | Richmond | |||
| YinnarTiger | Geel, WCE, Syd, Port | Collingwood | :fing32 |
Re: Last Man Standing Round 9 closes 8.10pm Friday May 17
This is in by no means personal and just a maths argument. I appreciate your efforts for running a comp so by no means take this as disrespect. I just think your logic is completely flawed.
Put simply, given the chances of each team winning AREN'T equal - the more games I have to pick from, the better chance I have of not picking a loser as I have a full suite of games to chose from. The later I wait, the smaller the pool I have to choose from. You can't make a logical argument that all the games have equal probability because they don't.
You are also falling for the gamber's / mote carlo fallacy, and assuming somehow that other person's pick or a prior decision influences the probability in a completely independent event in the future. They aren't linked.
e.g for arguments sake, if there were only two games
1 Rich v Carl (Rich massive favorite) on Friday
Put my tip in on Saturday
2 Ess v SK (50:50 game) on Sunday
The obvious pick I want to make is Richmond. If I miss it I'm forced into a 50:50 so I lose by not being on time.
Flip them around the other way. The obvious pick is still Richmond, if I miss the first one then I still get to make my favoured pick and if the other person picked the 50:50 game it was up to them and not in any way influence by my pick.
You are also assuming in your logic that people can't change their tips, which if you are allowed to put in a tip before a game is played then you would also be allowed to change.
The are two other minor arguments for your case. 1 - is that after the first game I can get more information on the other games (team changes, training injury etc.) but to 'buy' that information I give up my chance to pick on the first game. 2 - which I find more interesting is from a game theory perspective - since to win I have to beat everyone else - in a 10 people remaining comp, if I know everyone else's tips - and say all 9 of them pick a favorite - I can gamble the underdog gets up, and in doing so win the whole competition vs remaining a 1:10 chance in future rounds. (The only way to overcome this is to make all tips blind and revealed after the round)
There is a reason that most tipping comps let you change your tip / bet right up until the final siren and don't let you see anyone elses tips...
I think the logic you should run, is that YOU are running the comp, and for ease of administration, only tips before a certain time will be accepted. I respect that. Cheers.
YinnarTiger said:
This is in by no means personal and just a maths argument. I appreciate your efforts for running a comp so by no means take this as disrespect. I just think your logic is completely flawed.
Put simply, given the chances of each team winning AREN'T equal - the more games I have to pick from, the better chance I have of not picking a loser as I have a full suite of games to chose from. The later I wait, the smaller the pool I have to choose from. You can't make a logical argument that all the games have equal probability because they don't.
You are also falling for the gamber's / mote carlo fallacy, and assuming somehow that other person's pick or a prior decision influences the probability in a completely independent event in the future. They aren't linked.
e.g for arguments sake, if there were only two games
1 Rich v Carl (Rich massive favorite) on Friday
Put my tip in on Saturday
2 Ess v SK (50:50 game) on Sunday
The obvious pick I want to make is Richmond. If I miss it I'm forced into a 50:50 so I lose by not being on time.
Flip them around the other way. The obvious pick is still Richmond, if I miss the first one then I still get to make my favoured pick and if the other person picked the 50:50 game it was up to them and not in any way influence by my pick.
You are also assuming in your logic that people can't change their tips, which if you are allowed to put in a tip before a game is played then you would also be allowed to change.
The are two other minor arguments for your case. 1 - is that after the first game I can get more information on the other games (team changes, training injury etc.) but to 'buy' that information I give up my chance to pick on the first game. 2 - which I find more interesting is from a game theory perspective - since to win I have to beat everyone else - in a 10 people remaining comp, if I know everyone else's tips - and say all 9 of them pick a favorite - I can gamble the underdog gets up, and in doing so win the whole competition vs remaining a 1:10 chance in future rounds. (The only way to overcome this is to make all tips blind and revealed after the round)
There is a reason that most tipping comps let you change your tip / bet right up until the final siren and don't let you see anyone elses tips...
I think the logic you should run, is that YOU are running the comp, and for ease of administration, only tips before a certain time will be accepted. I respect that. Cheers.
Re: Last Man Standing Round 10
ROUND 10
Friday, May 24
Sydney vs. Collingwood (SCG) (N)
Saturday, May 25
Hawthorn vs. Port Adelaide (Launceston)
Western Bulldogs vs. North Melbourne (Docklands)
Adelaide vs. West Coast (AO) (T)
Gold Coast vs. Geelong (Carrara) (N)
Richmond vs. Essendon (MCG) (N)
Sunday, May 26
Melbourne vs. GWS (MCG)
St Kilda vs. Carlton (Docklands)
Fremantle vs. Brisbane (Perth) (T)
Friday, May 24
Sydney vs. Collingwood (SCG) (N)
Saturday, May 25
Hawthorn vs. Port Adelaide (Launceston)
Western Bulldogs vs. North Melbourne (Docklands)
Adelaide vs. West Coast (AO) (T)
Gold Coast vs. Geelong (Carrara) (N)
Richmond vs. Essendon (MCG) (N)
Sunday, May 26
Melbourne vs. GWS (MCG)
St Kilda vs. Carlton (Docklands)
Fremantle vs. Brisbane (Perth) (T)
| PREnder | Round 9 | Result | Cannot pick Round 10 |
| 14tempany | Geelong | :fing32 | Geel, Coll, North, St K |
| DanMinogue | GWS | :fing32 | GWS, Geel, St K, Bull |
| evo | Geelong | :fing32 | Geel, Coll, North, St K |
| gold1 | Port Adelaide | :fing32 | Port, WCE, Geel, Carl |
| North Melbourne | :thumbdown | ||
| larabee | Geelong | :fing32 | Geel, Coll, North, St K |
| LeeToRainesToRoach | Geelong | :fing32 | Geel, Coll, North, St K |
| Letsroar | GWS | :fing32 | GWS, Geel, St K, Bull |
| mainlandy | Essendon | :fing32 | Ess, Coll, Bris, St K |
| DNP | :thumbdown | ||
| Sammy C | Geelong | :fing32 | Geel, Coll, North, St K |
| scottyturnerscurse | West Coast | :fing32 | WCE, Coll, GWS, St K |
| Adelaide | :thumbdown | ||
| The Big Richo | Port Adelaide | :fing32 | Port, Coll, Geel, St K |
| tigerdave | Richmond | :fing32 | Ric, Coll, Port, St K |
| North Melbourne | :thumbdown | ||
| tommystigers | Richmond | :fing32 | Ric, Coll, Port, St K |
| YinnarTiger | Collingwood | :fing32 | Coll, Geel, Carl, Bull |
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