Re: Last Man Standing Round 9 closes 8.10pm Friday May 17
RoarEmotion said:
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e.g for arguments sake, if there were only two games
1 Rich v Carl (Rich massive favorite) on Friday
Put my tip in on Saturday
2 Ess v SK (50:50 game) on Sunday
The obvious pick I want to make is Richmond. If I miss it I'm forced into a 50:50 so I lose by not being on time.
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Your event space for the round consists of two outcomes: eg Essendon win or St Kilda win and you are correct that their probabilities are independent of the Friday result.
For the purpose of a knockout competition, I would define the event space for the whole round as follows:
Event A: You win the competition outright by selecting a winner and all other competitors fail to select a winner.
Event B: You remain in the competition and progress to the next round. EITHER your selection wins and at least one other competitor selects a winner OR nobody selects a winner.
Event C: You are eliminated from the competition by failing to select a winner while at least one other competitor selects a winner.
These events would all have a non-zero probability on Friday afternoon.
Assuming some competitor picked Richmond, if you know that Richmond has won the probability of A would decrease (to zero). If Carlton won, and you were still allowed to make a tip, the probability of events A , B and C would still be non-zero but maybe different to what they were before Friday's game.
Thus A is dependent on the Friday result if late tips are allowed.
RoarEmotion said:
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I think the logic you should run, is that YOU are running the comp, and for ease of administration, only tips before a certain time will be accepted. I respect that. Cheers.
Thanks, I think I will go with this.