Last Man Standing Winner is Sammy C | PUNT ROAD END | Richmond Tigers Forum
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Last Man Standing Winner is Sammy C

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YinnarTiger

Tiger Legend
May 2, 2007
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Re: Last Man Standing Round 9 closes 8.10pm Friday May 17

RoarEmotion said:
<snip>

e.g for arguments sake, if there were only two games

1 Rich v Carl (Rich massive favorite) on Friday
Put my tip in on Saturday
2 Ess v SK (50:50 game) on Sunday

The obvious pick I want to make is Richmond. If I miss it I'm forced into a 50:50 so I lose by not being on time.

<snip>

Your event space for the round consists of two outcomes: eg Essendon win or St Kilda win and you are correct that their probabilities are independent of the Friday result.

For the purpose of a knockout competition, I would define the event space for the whole round as follows:

Event A: You win the competition outright by selecting a winner and all other competitors fail to select a winner.

Event B: You remain in the competition and progress to the next round. EITHER your selection wins and at least one other competitor selects a winner OR nobody selects a winner.

Event C: You are eliminated from the competition by failing to select a winner while at least one other competitor selects a winner.

These events would all have a non-zero probability on Friday afternoon.

Assuming some competitor picked Richmond, if you know that Richmond has won the probability of A would decrease (to zero). If Carlton won, and you were still allowed to make a tip, the probability of events A , B and C would still be non-zero but maybe different to what they were before Friday's game.

Thus A is dependent on the Friday result if late tips are allowed.

RoarEmotion said:
<snip>
I think the logic you should run, is that YOU are running the comp, and for ease of administration, only tips before a certain time will be accepted. I respect that. Cheers.

:) Thanks, I think I will go with this.
 

YinnarTiger

Tiger Legend
May 2, 2007
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727
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Re: Last Man Standing Round 10 closes tonight 7.50pm

PREnderRound 10ResultCannot pick Round 11
14tempanyWestern BulldogsBull, Geel, Ric, WCE
DanMinogueRichmondRic, GWS, Carl, Ess
evoRichmondRic, Geel, Carl, WCE
gold1FremantleFreo, Port, Haw, GWS
larabeeRichmondRic, Geel, Carl, WCE
LeeToRainesToRoachFremantleFreo, Geel, Haw, WCE
LetsroarAdelaideAdel, GWS, Bull, Ess
mainlandyRichmondRic, Ess, Carl, Coll
Sammy CRichmondRic, Geel, Carl, WCE
scottyturnerscurseGeelongGeel, WCE, GWS, Adel
The Big RichoAdelaideAdel, Port, Bull, GWS
tigerdaveBrisbaneBris, Ric, Coll
tommystigersGeelongGeel, Ric, GWS, Bris
YinnarTigerRichmondRic, Coll, Carl, Port
 

YinnarTiger

Tiger Legend
May 2, 2007
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727
75
Gippsland
Re: Last Man Standing Round 11

ROUND 11
Friday, May 31
North Melbourne vs. Richmond (Docklands) (N)

Saturday, June 1
Collingwood vs. Fremantle (MCG)
GWS vs. Gold Coast (Sydney Showground)
Geelong vs. Sydney (Kardinia Park) (T)
Brisbane vs. Hawthorn (G) (N)
Melbourne vs. Adelaide (Darwin) (N)

Sunday, June 2
St Kilda vs. Port Adelaide (Shanghai)
Essendon vs. Carlton (MCG)
West Coast vs. Western Bulldogs (Perth) (T)

PREnderRound 10ResultCannot pick Round 11
14tempanyWestern Bulldogs:thumbdown
DanMinogueRichmond:fing32Ric, GWS, Carl, Ess
evoRichmond:fing32Ric, Geel, Carl, WCE
gold1Fremantle:fing32Freo, Port, Haw, GWS
larabeeRichmond:fing32Ric, Geel, Carl, WCE
LeeToRainesToRoachFremantle:fing32Freo, Geel, Haw, WCE
LetsroarAdelaide:thumbdown
mainlandyRichmond:fing32Ric, Ess, Carl, Coll
Sammy CRichmond:fing32Ric, Geel, Carl, WCE
scottyturnerscurseGeelong:fing32Geel, WCE, GWS, Adel
The Big RichoAdelaide:thumbdown
tigerdaveBrisbane:thumbdown
tommystigersGeelong:fing32Geel, Ric, GWS, Bris
YinnarTigerRichmond:fing32Ric, Coll, Carl, Port
 

tommystigers

Don't Boo! It is hurtful to the inept and corrupt.
Oct 6, 2004
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Re: Last Man Standing Round 11

Collingwood

Hopefully 'tis the kiss of death.
 

YinnarTiger

Tiger Legend
May 2, 2007
7,521
727
75
Gippsland
Re: Last Man Standing Round 11 closes 7.50pm tonight

PREnderCannot pick Round 11Round 11
DanMinogueRic, GWS, Carl, EssWest Coast
evoRic, Geel, Carl, WCEGWS
gold1Freo, Port, Haw, GWSWest Coast
larabeeRic, Geel, Carl, WCEGWS
LeeToRainesToRoachFreo, Geel, Haw, WCEGWS
mainlandyRic, Ess, Carl, CollWest Coast
Sammy CRic, Geel, Carl, WCEGWS
scottyturnerscurseGeel, WCE, GWS, AdelEssendon
tommystigersGeel, Ric, GWS, BrisCollingwood
YinnarTigerRic, Coll, Carl, PortGWS
 
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