March to the finals 2023

[Tigerfan]

Carlton. DRAW. MCG. Not good

Adelaide WIN 1. AO. Helps

Collinwod LOSS. MCG. Bad

Bulldogs. LOSS. MCG. Bad

Sydney LOSS. AO. Meh

Melbourne LOSS. MCG. Bad

Gold Coast LOSS. Marvel. Meh

West Coast. WIN 2. MCG. Good

Geelong. WIN. 3 MCG. Good

Essendon. LOST. MCG. Bad

Port LOST. MCG. Bad

Giants. WIN 4 Sydney. Helpful

Fremantle. Perth

St kilda. Mcg

Brisbane. Gabba

Sydney. MCG

WCE Perth

Hawks MCG

Melb MCG

Bulldogs Marvel

Saints Marvel

North. MCG

port AO

 

[Tigerfan]

The magic number is 13
And we need 11
That’s all 8 mcg games to be won
And away trips v wce freo giants and port

Obviously we lose all the marvel games

It will be interesting to see if the club can get it done

 

[Ian4]

The magic number is 13
And we need 11
That’s all 8 mcg games to be won
And away trips v wce freo giants and port

Obviously we lose all the marvel games

It will be interesting to see if the club can get it done

Seeing that there is 1 extra game this year, i reckon we will need 13.5 wins.

R9: Geelong (h) - Too good for us. Loss.
R10: Essendon (a) - They are better this year, but they haven’t beaten us in 10 years. Likely win.
R11: Port (h) - We should be beating interstate teams at the G. Likely win.
R12: GWS (a) - 50/50. Will put down as a loss.
R13: Freo (a) - 50/50. Will put down as a win.
R14: St Kilda (h) - Bubble is starting to burst. Likely win.
R15: Bye
R16: Brisbane (a) - They hate us and always go harder against us. Loss.
R17: Sydney (h) - We should be beating interstate teams at the G, but Sydney play well there. Likely loss.
R18: Eagles (a) - Win.
R19: Hawthorn (h) - Win.
R20: Melbourne (a) - There is something about Melbourne that makes them beatable. 50/50. Will put down as a loss.
R21: Dogs (a) - Can’t win at Marvel. Loss.
R22: St Kilda (a) - St Kilda will be shot by then. 50/50 coz it’s at Marvel. Will put down as a win.
R23: Norf (h) – Win.
R24: Port (a) – by this point we’ll have about 10.5 wins and out of contention. Likely loss.

For us to win 13.5 games, we’d have to beat GWS, Freo away and Port at home and away. Them we’ll have to snag one of Geelong, Sydney, Brisbane, Dogs or Melbourne. Not impossible, but not likely.

 

[Bullarto Tiger]

You're probably right, bin man
But that's a downer nevertheless

 

[Tigerfan]

Good win tigers !!

 

[DragaTheCro]

Seeing that there is 1 extra game this year, i reckon we will need 13.5 wins.

R9: Geelong (h) - Too good for us. Loss.
R10: Essendon (a) - They are better this year, but they haven’t beaten us in 10 years. Likely win.
R11: Port (h) - We should be beating interstate teams at the G. Likely win.
R12: GWS (a) - 50/50. Will put down as a loss.
R13: Freo (a) - 50/50. Will put down as a win.
R14: St Kilda (h) - Bubble is starting to burst. Likely win.
R15: Bye
R16: Brisbane (a) - They hate us and always go harder against us. Loss.
R17: Sydney (h) - We should be beating interstate teams at the G, but Sydney play well there. Likely loss.
R18: Eagles (a) - Win.
R19: Hawthorn (h) - Win.
R20: Melbourne (a) - There is something about Melbourne that makes them beatable. 50/50. Will put down as a loss.
R21: Dogs (a) - Can’t win at Marvel. Loss.
R22: St Kilda (a) - St Kilda will be shot by then. 50/50 coz it’s at Marvel. Will put down as a win.
R23: Norf (h) – Win.
R24: Port (a) – by this point we’ll have about 10.5 wins and out of contention. Likely loss.

For us to win 13.5 games, we’d have to beat GWS, Freo away and Port at home and away. Them we’ll have to snag one of Geelong, Sydney, Brisbane, Dogs or Melbourne. Not impossible, but not likely.

The R9 prediction is not ageing well Ian

 

[RoarEmotion]

Tough draw. On live ladder 2 3 5 7 14 18 twice.

It really comes down to who out of hawthorn north and wce you get twice. I guess 1 of 3 Is average.

Hopefully by the time we get the saints their younger kids are starting to feel the pinch of a long season.

 

[year of the tiger]

Crickey, if games for the rest of this round and next follows some form of normality - the higher team wins AND the tigers beat the bumbers (we are at least a 50:50 chance to do this), then we jump above the blouse and the bumbers and are 9th with only 1/2 a game outside the 8.

OR, now this is the best bit - the cats beat the flockers over in Perth next week , then we WILL be in the 8th if all other results going to plan.

Can you believe it or am I getting too far ahead of myself. I need to sit down and have a nice cuppa tea.

 

[DuD_Delist]

Has us down at 12th come years end 1 1/2 games out of the 8.Too much ground to make up with those around us.
More crappier sides than in the past.WestC/North & Haw who don't even look like beating themselves.
Only consolation is Carl finish 9th & Cats 10th.

 

[RoarEmotion]

Yep it’s still a stretch but we’ve given ourselves a chance now. Essendon don’t look that good. If we can take care of business next week we get a crack at port on the g to squaring the ledger.

Need to hang in there until lynch back.

 

[tigertime2]

If we are good enough we can do it. simple as that. we are a chance to win every single match. no one in the comp. frightens me. none.

 

[RoarEmotion]

If we are good enough we can do it. simple as that. we are a chance to win every single match. no one in the comp. frightens me. none.

It’s more than that - We will need the ball to bounce our way a few times though. Poor kicking by other team / good by us (Eg vs cats). Break even with umps etc. the comp is that tight and we don’t have a four goal gap on most teams like we did in 18 in particular.

 

[gold1]

Reckon we can manage a seven week win streak and be in the 8 at the bye.Should that happen meeting Brisbane in Brisbane straight after would attract a record crowd and allow Lynch(if playing) to atone for past efforts.

 

[eZyT]

I've got us needing to beat Port in Adelaide in round 24 to finish 7th.

that's winning the ones we should,

and grafting one win out of dees, lions, saints, saints, dogs.

its a big ask, and we probably left our resurgence a fortnight too late.

 

[tigertime2]

I am bullish. Belief is like magic oil. Winning begets winning...success begets success.
Dare to Dream!!
Fly McCrae's motto this year is take the Stairs not the escalator. Success only comes by doing the 1% that others will not do.
Our goal should be just to win the match in front of us. do that enough we make the finals.
We can still finish top 4.

 

[DuD_Delist]

I am bullish. Belief is like magic oil. Winning begets winning...success begets success.
Dare to Dream!!
Fly McCrae's motto this year is take the Stairs not the escalator. Success only comes by doing the 1% that others will not do.
Our goal should be just to win the match in front of us. do that enough we make the finals.
We can still finish top 4.

No chance of Top 4.
We're already 3 games behind 4th.

 

[Ian4]

The R9 prediction is not ageing well Ian

This is why i don't to footy tipping anymore.

Yep it’s still a stretch but we’ve given ourselves a chance now. Essendon don’t look that good. If we can take care of business next week we get a crack at port on the g to squaring the ledger.

Need to hang in there until lynch back.

After Friday night, I’m not so sure we need to “hang on” til Lynch returns.

Don’t get me wrong, I am not getting carried away with 1 win. But we are allowed to get a little carried away with the way we played. Everything seemed to have clicked on Friday. 100 points in consecutive weeks is a big improvement.

I remember in 2019 it took us a good month to adjust after losing Rance. It has taken a similar time to adjust with playing without Lynch.

And it felt like 2017 on Friday. Lowering our eyes and dirty balls going forward. We don’t have the small forwards we had in 2017, but we do have enough midfield depth to allow our midfielders to rotate through the forward line.

I have said multiple times this season that teams have worked us out and we to make adjustments to the way we play. In 2017 and 2019 it was forced upon us by circumstances. Maybe Friday night was the day we found our new way forward.

But as you said, we should be focusing on squaring the ledger before we worry about finals.

Maybe, just maybe, that extra game could benefit us.

 

[Brodders17]

After Friday night, I’m not so sure we need to “hang on” til Lynch returns.

Obviously we will be a better team with the best KPF in the game playing, but it hasnt been Lynch we have been missing, it has been Lynch, Nankervis (or Soldo) and Broad. and Tarrant and Gibcus.
Over the last couple of weeks Ryan has become a true AFL standard ruck, but before that we were lacking strength at clearances (and still might against a top quality ruck) and strength and height up each end. Now we are only lacking up forward, so it is not as pronounced.

 

[RoarEmotion]

We had a very good game with goal kicking and not wasting it relative to previous 12 months. I’d like to see a pattern of this for 3 out of 4 weeks. If that happens we are definitely on.

Melbourne and Carlton 6 points and maybe even WB and Syd if this was working better earlier.

The other very noticeable thing the last 2 weeks and last quarter against suns is we have stopped letting teams waltz it down to the wing or even 70 out with zero pressure down the boundary line. Helps on this kicking straighter too - those things were compounding each other.

 

[tigertim]

History says 7 of the 8 sides currently in the 8 by this time of the season stay there, 1 will drop out. One of either Saints, Crows, Cats, Bulldogs ( I reckon the saints).

so we’d be fighting with Carlton, Essendon, Suns, Freo and maybe Sydney and the Giants. 7 teams fighting for 1 spot. It’s gunna be a tough ask.