This all comes back to the curious anomaly in the current system.
The most likely progression is that 1st will beat 4th in a Qualifying Final. It doesn't much matter who wins the other QF, but assuming the most normal progression continues and the two QF losers win their Semi Finals, the Preliminary Finals simply become contested by the same four teams that contested the QFs.
There is a decree in the system that disallows two teams meeting each other twice in the finals series (unless it has to happen in the Grand Final).
So, the most common outcome is that 1st end up playing a better team in their PF than whoever won the other QF.
And if it happens that 3rd beat 2nd in their QF, It's even worse for the minor premiers.
2017 is the best example. Richmond (3rd) beat Geelong (2nd) in a QF. This is never unlikely because they only finished one spot apart.
The two QF losers (Geelong and GWS) won their semis and so it means that Adelaide had to play 2nd in their PF and Richmond had to play 4th.
I think this is why 1st has an unexpectedly poor record with the current system.
A solution that I have long advocated is to allow 1st to pick who they want to play in the QF out of 3rd and 4th (I would do the same for 5th with 7th and 8th).
Adelaide might have taken the punt and chosen to play Richmond in Adelaide and bank on getting a lesser team in their PF.
The most likely progression is that 1st will beat 4th in a Qualifying Final. It doesn't much matter who wins the other QF, but assuming the most normal progression continues and the two QF losers win their Semi Finals, the Preliminary Finals simply become contested by the same four teams that contested the QFs.
There is a decree in the system that disallows two teams meeting each other twice in the finals series (unless it has to happen in the Grand Final).
So, the most common outcome is that 1st end up playing a better team in their PF than whoever won the other QF.
And if it happens that 3rd beat 2nd in their QF, It's even worse for the minor premiers.
2017 is the best example. Richmond (3rd) beat Geelong (2nd) in a QF. This is never unlikely because they only finished one spot apart.
The two QF losers (Geelong and GWS) won their semis and so it means that Adelaide had to play 2nd in their PF and Richmond had to play 4th.
I think this is why 1st has an unexpectedly poor record with the current system.
A solution that I have long advocated is to allow 1st to pick who they want to play in the QF out of 3rd and 4th (I would do the same for 5th with 7th and 8th).
Adelaide might have taken the punt and chosen to play Richmond in Adelaide and bank on getting a lesser team in their PF.
