So I decided to tally up all my picks from the past 10 years or so, just wanted to see some strike rates & whether or not I'm hitting the right notes at various stages in the draft. This is in part to highlight the value of late picks & also to get some snapshot on the most successful playing types.
1. Jacob Wetering
1. Luke Davies Uniake
I'm happy with these picks, Weitering over Schache was clearly the right call, also happy to have picked a Petracca style mid over the aerobically challenged Rayner.
3. Ben Ainsworth
A bit of a let down but I'm also mindful of the fact Gold Coast have a poor record of development. In hindsight there's a few that have flown past, I think I've also potentially fallen into the flanker trap, never mind as it wasn't a particularly blockbuster draft but it's still below my expectations for a pick 3.
6. Rhys Palmer (Alex Rance)
I didn't actually rate Palmer this high so I had to go back and check as to why he was my pick, looks like I was away from my desk & Scoop did the honours on my behalf. Not a bad selection but Rance was my pick here & I was entertaining ways for Richmond to climb into the top 10 to get him.
7. Bailey Smith
Nailed this pick & I think Smith is a top 5 talent, I think Richmond did the right thing looking to trade up, you can't knock the club for trying in the real deal.
8. Wayne Milera
Curnow was off the board so this pick is actually not too bad, a few injury concerns but I still rate Milera a player. Probably needs to be in the rebounder role.
9. Ben Hobbs
Solid pick, did well in his first season & I'm totally fine with his progress thus far. A little bit vanilla but I paid for blue chip certainty & I think he'll be a 100 gamer at a bare minimum.
11. Harry McKay
This was a classic bookends draft & everything turned out well in the end. Here's another Coleman medalist drifting into the 6-15 range, that's quite a few gun forwards that have drifted out of the top 5, you can also add Fogarty, Naughton, Lynch, Riewoldt & Marshall (although pick 16).
11. Josh Rachele
I traded three second rounders for Josh & I'm happy, I think it was an aggressive play but I see Rachele as an elite talent.
12. Lewis Taylor
Started well but has struggled to stay in the system. The issue with Taylor is not his height or his ball winning ability but his kicking, his composure hasn't lived up to expectations & checking back on my notes I made a few assumptions about his potential as a forward threat. I wouldn't say outright bust but he won't get to 200 games unfortunately.
12. Nakia Cockatoo
Poor Cocky can't stay fit, at least he's still on a list but probably a poor choice. To be fair it wasn't the greatest draft in history but I was expecting a far greater return.
17. Sam Powell-Pepper
I still don't know if this has been a successful pick & I know there's a love hate relationship with Port supporters. Still has 100+ games to his name & is only 24, I suppose if he clocks 200 games you would have to give this a tick.
17. Noah Balta
Very happy with this selection, the sky's the limit & would be made better by some stints in the forward line. I do recall Balta was a forward as a junior so fingers crossed.
17. Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera
Decent first season, I'm liking what I see, can see him taking kick-outs at some stage.
19. Mitch Hibberd
Well at least I got a reality TV star! Bust!
23. Addam Maric
Prolific as a junior & got his chance at the Tiges but ultimately a bust.
23. Josh Rotham
He's a bit of a head scratcher, in & out of a poor West Coast side, I think he lacks physicality & reckon he will have his work cut out to remain on an AFL list, probably a bust but whilst there's life, there's hope.
25. Brennan Cox
I like Cox, 82 games into his career he's lived up to my expectations, a great spare parts player who can be thrown around the park when needed. I think this one will turn out well when the dust settles.
31. Luke Ryan
This was a terrific pick, Ryan is probably Fremantle's most reliable defender & can play multiple roles. This is a maximum value selection in this range.
33. Peter Bampton
This guy broke his collar bone a week after the PRE draft so I'm not going to beat myself up over this pick, in short he wouldn't have been selected by me with that knowledge but he was probably a bit too much of a stodgy one paced mid in any case (see Hately, Constable, Roberts).
38. Jacob Kennerley
Didn't play a game so unequivocally a bust, good tank but not AFL standard.
39. Buku Khamis
Finally got his chance this year & looked good from my perspective, I reckon with his kicking skills you might entertain a Dan Rioli type move to defence.
40. Hugh Dixon
Got a few chances but has been delisted, clear bust & just goes to show the difficulty in grabbing a forward in this range.
40. Jacob Allison
Athletic freak who couldn't piece together all the parts needed for an AFL career. Another bust.
43. Jordan Houlahan
0 games, bust............
44. Jake Patmore
Delisted after 3 years at Port, not really a standout in the SANFL. Bust.
46. Riley Knight
Monster tank, pretty good bet but maybe lacking the explosiveness for a permanent wing role. Only 55 games so you have to say bust.
52. Caleb Daniel
This is the perfect type of junk pick, only one thing was dragging Daniel down the charts and that was height. Best midget in the business.
52. Darcy Byrne-Jones
All Australian defender who was a star at the combine. This was one of those picks that I saw as a project and he didn't let me down.
52. Brayden Ainsworth
Didn't quite make the grade, probably a bit too one dimensional for a midfielder, not a great athlete either.
53. Joshua Browne
Was added the Eagles playing squad this year, I still like him and his WAFL numbers were outstanding for a first year player. Definitely remains on the watch list.
55. Chris Kangars
Didn't get drafted so clear bust.
57. Tom McKenzie
Didn't succeed at the Hawks and has been delisted, decent looking rebounder at junior level, this range fair weight but no Salada on this occasion.
58. Sam Menegola
State league players in the fourth round can be gold, this is probably the best example of getting value at the deep end.
59. Tom Doedee
Another successful pick, he did go much earlier in the real deal but happy with a club captain & athletic beast.
59. Sam Walker
Didn't get drafted so it was a bust from the outset, I really liked him as a junior, that was one I could never quite work out.
60. Tony Olango
Poor Tony was done for assault, that won't get you an AFL career. Fair weight for a project ruck, you win some, you lose some.
64. Kym Lebois
Didn't succeed at Carlton, not sure why to be honest, I thought he was in the Stengle class but I was out of whack with that call. Bust.
68. Kyron Hayden
Still on a list, only 17 games however, hopefully a new coach will propel him into best 22 contention. Pretty good athlete from memory.
70. Hugh Beasley
Had a brief stint at Brisbane but not quite AFL quality. Maybe a bit of a tweener or a failed third tall if you want to be blunt.
71. Jack Steven
Probably my best junk pick in 15 years, happy with that call.
71. Mitch Grigg
Wins the award for best player never to make the grade at AFL level. I know his body type looked more like a bush footballer but the lad could play and his tank was elite believe it or not.
72. Blake Schlensog
Worth a try, didn't get drafted but he's still young enough & I'm happy to hit the state leagues at this point.
75. Mitch Crowden
42 games, not a terrible pick but I wouldn't say a hit, probably need to register 100 games for that recognition.
76. Declan Watson
34 games at the Kangas, clear bust even in this range.
81. Tom Joyce
Still hanging in there, was a West Coast top up player so he's there abouts. Still pushing for a debut.
81. Lloyd Meek
Project ruck worth a second rounder now, definite win.
88. Josh McGuiness
No games at senior level. Bust.
94. Blaine Boekhorst
Famous for tweeting nasties about Mick Malthouse & then gets drafted by Carlton. Not so much a bust in this range but well overs in the real deal.
So that's 49 picks in total, that's also deducting F&S picks & Academy selections, the numbers would look much better with Heeney, Daicos, West etc. but that's not my angle here as those selections have been the product of AFL intervention & dubious equalisation policies.
Picks 1-5
66% strike rate, two genuine A listers & one core best 22. Not terrible & I won't beat myself up over Ainsworth, I still think the kid can play.
Pick 6-15
A mixed bag, missed some rippers but I won't be alone. Strike rate 66%, 4 out of 7 but Taylor is still a 100 gamer, Milera might come good & Cocky needs a clean run with injury. For the moment those guys are busts but there's still some hope of a second wind.
16-30
Maybe a bit too early to call but I'm calling Powell-Pepper a win because I think he gets to 200 games, Balta looks a win, Cox a win, Rotham probably a bust, Addam Maric definitely a bust. Strike rate hinges on Wanganeen-Milera, if he succeeds then it's 50%.
31-50
Yikes, one good call out of 9, that number could lift to 3 out of 9 but it's still a very poor return, I might need to make some adjustment to my metrics here.
51-rookie
This has been a pretty good return, 5 guns in Steven, Menegola, Daniel, Doedee, Byrne-Jones & one best 22 ruck in Meek. Out of 23 selections that's a solid return. The numbers could improve if Hayden or Joyce make it. For the moment it's 6 out of 22, so I reckon we're travelling at roughly 24%.
If I tally every pick from 30 onwards it's 7 out of 31 or 23% strike rate, I suspect that's probably close enough to the AFL average.
Importantly, did I get an AFL team out of my 49 selections?
Backs - Darcy Byrne-Jones Jacob Weitering Tom Doedee
Half Backs - Luke Ryan Brennan Cox Caleb Daniel
Centre - Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera Ben Hobbs Sam Powell-Pepper
Half Forwards - Ben Ainsworth Noah Balta Wayne Milera
Forwards - Sam Menegola Harry McKay Josh Rachele
Followers - Lloyd Meek Luke Davies-Uniake Bailey Smith
Bench - Nakia Cockatoo, Kyron Hayden, Buku Khamis, Josh Rotham
Sub - Lewis Taylor
That's an ok looking team, interestingly I didn't have much left in the kitty, but I reckon it's a reasonably well balanced side.
1. Jacob Wetering
1. Luke Davies Uniake
I'm happy with these picks, Weitering over Schache was clearly the right call, also happy to have picked a Petracca style mid over the aerobically challenged Rayner.
3. Ben Ainsworth
A bit of a let down but I'm also mindful of the fact Gold Coast have a poor record of development. In hindsight there's a few that have flown past, I think I've also potentially fallen into the flanker trap, never mind as it wasn't a particularly blockbuster draft but it's still below my expectations for a pick 3.
6. Rhys Palmer (Alex Rance)
I didn't actually rate Palmer this high so I had to go back and check as to why he was my pick, looks like I was away from my desk & Scoop did the honours on my behalf. Not a bad selection but Rance was my pick here & I was entertaining ways for Richmond to climb into the top 10 to get him.
7. Bailey Smith
Nailed this pick & I think Smith is a top 5 talent, I think Richmond did the right thing looking to trade up, you can't knock the club for trying in the real deal.
8. Wayne Milera
Curnow was off the board so this pick is actually not too bad, a few injury concerns but I still rate Milera a player. Probably needs to be in the rebounder role.
9. Ben Hobbs
Solid pick, did well in his first season & I'm totally fine with his progress thus far. A little bit vanilla but I paid for blue chip certainty & I think he'll be a 100 gamer at a bare minimum.
11. Harry McKay
This was a classic bookends draft & everything turned out well in the end. Here's another Coleman medalist drifting into the 6-15 range, that's quite a few gun forwards that have drifted out of the top 5, you can also add Fogarty, Naughton, Lynch, Riewoldt & Marshall (although pick 16).
11. Josh Rachele
I traded three second rounders for Josh & I'm happy, I think it was an aggressive play but I see Rachele as an elite talent.
12. Lewis Taylor
Started well but has struggled to stay in the system. The issue with Taylor is not his height or his ball winning ability but his kicking, his composure hasn't lived up to expectations & checking back on my notes I made a few assumptions about his potential as a forward threat. I wouldn't say outright bust but he won't get to 200 games unfortunately.
12. Nakia Cockatoo
Poor Cocky can't stay fit, at least he's still on a list but probably a poor choice. To be fair it wasn't the greatest draft in history but I was expecting a far greater return.
17. Sam Powell-Pepper
I still don't know if this has been a successful pick & I know there's a love hate relationship with Port supporters. Still has 100+ games to his name & is only 24, I suppose if he clocks 200 games you would have to give this a tick.
17. Noah Balta
Very happy with this selection, the sky's the limit & would be made better by some stints in the forward line. I do recall Balta was a forward as a junior so fingers crossed.
17. Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera
Decent first season, I'm liking what I see, can see him taking kick-outs at some stage.
19. Mitch Hibberd
Well at least I got a reality TV star! Bust!
23. Addam Maric
Prolific as a junior & got his chance at the Tiges but ultimately a bust.
23. Josh Rotham
He's a bit of a head scratcher, in & out of a poor West Coast side, I think he lacks physicality & reckon he will have his work cut out to remain on an AFL list, probably a bust but whilst there's life, there's hope.
25. Brennan Cox
I like Cox, 82 games into his career he's lived up to my expectations, a great spare parts player who can be thrown around the park when needed. I think this one will turn out well when the dust settles.
31. Luke Ryan
This was a terrific pick, Ryan is probably Fremantle's most reliable defender & can play multiple roles. This is a maximum value selection in this range.
33. Peter Bampton
This guy broke his collar bone a week after the PRE draft so I'm not going to beat myself up over this pick, in short he wouldn't have been selected by me with that knowledge but he was probably a bit too much of a stodgy one paced mid in any case (see Hately, Constable, Roberts).
38. Jacob Kennerley
Didn't play a game so unequivocally a bust, good tank but not AFL standard.
39. Buku Khamis
Finally got his chance this year & looked good from my perspective, I reckon with his kicking skills you might entertain a Dan Rioli type move to defence.
40. Hugh Dixon
Got a few chances but has been delisted, clear bust & just goes to show the difficulty in grabbing a forward in this range.
40. Jacob Allison
Athletic freak who couldn't piece together all the parts needed for an AFL career. Another bust.
43. Jordan Houlahan
0 games, bust............
44. Jake Patmore
Delisted after 3 years at Port, not really a standout in the SANFL. Bust.
46. Riley Knight
Monster tank, pretty good bet but maybe lacking the explosiveness for a permanent wing role. Only 55 games so you have to say bust.
52. Caleb Daniel
This is the perfect type of junk pick, only one thing was dragging Daniel down the charts and that was height. Best midget in the business.
52. Darcy Byrne-Jones
All Australian defender who was a star at the combine. This was one of those picks that I saw as a project and he didn't let me down.
52. Brayden Ainsworth
Didn't quite make the grade, probably a bit too one dimensional for a midfielder, not a great athlete either.
53. Joshua Browne
Was added the Eagles playing squad this year, I still like him and his WAFL numbers were outstanding for a first year player. Definitely remains on the watch list.
55. Chris Kangars
Didn't get drafted so clear bust.
57. Tom McKenzie
Didn't succeed at the Hawks and has been delisted, decent looking rebounder at junior level, this range fair weight but no Salada on this occasion.
58. Sam Menegola
State league players in the fourth round can be gold, this is probably the best example of getting value at the deep end.
59. Tom Doedee
Another successful pick, he did go much earlier in the real deal but happy with a club captain & athletic beast.
59. Sam Walker
Didn't get drafted so it was a bust from the outset, I really liked him as a junior, that was one I could never quite work out.
60. Tony Olango
Poor Tony was done for assault, that won't get you an AFL career. Fair weight for a project ruck, you win some, you lose some.
64. Kym Lebois
Didn't succeed at Carlton, not sure why to be honest, I thought he was in the Stengle class but I was out of whack with that call. Bust.
68. Kyron Hayden
Still on a list, only 17 games however, hopefully a new coach will propel him into best 22 contention. Pretty good athlete from memory.
70. Hugh Beasley
Had a brief stint at Brisbane but not quite AFL quality. Maybe a bit of a tweener or a failed third tall if you want to be blunt.
71. Jack Steven
Probably my best junk pick in 15 years, happy with that call.
71. Mitch Grigg
Wins the award for best player never to make the grade at AFL level. I know his body type looked more like a bush footballer but the lad could play and his tank was elite believe it or not.
72. Blake Schlensog
Worth a try, didn't get drafted but he's still young enough & I'm happy to hit the state leagues at this point.
75. Mitch Crowden
42 games, not a terrible pick but I wouldn't say a hit, probably need to register 100 games for that recognition.
76. Declan Watson
34 games at the Kangas, clear bust even in this range.
81. Tom Joyce
Still hanging in there, was a West Coast top up player so he's there abouts. Still pushing for a debut.
81. Lloyd Meek
Project ruck worth a second rounder now, definite win.
88. Josh McGuiness
No games at senior level. Bust.
94. Blaine Boekhorst
Famous for tweeting nasties about Mick Malthouse & then gets drafted by Carlton. Not so much a bust in this range but well overs in the real deal.
So that's 49 picks in total, that's also deducting F&S picks & Academy selections, the numbers would look much better with Heeney, Daicos, West etc. but that's not my angle here as those selections have been the product of AFL intervention & dubious equalisation policies.
Picks 1-5
66% strike rate, two genuine A listers & one core best 22. Not terrible & I won't beat myself up over Ainsworth, I still think the kid can play.
Pick 6-15
A mixed bag, missed some rippers but I won't be alone. Strike rate 66%, 4 out of 7 but Taylor is still a 100 gamer, Milera might come good & Cocky needs a clean run with injury. For the moment those guys are busts but there's still some hope of a second wind.
16-30
Maybe a bit too early to call but I'm calling Powell-Pepper a win because I think he gets to 200 games, Balta looks a win, Cox a win, Rotham probably a bust, Addam Maric definitely a bust. Strike rate hinges on Wanganeen-Milera, if he succeeds then it's 50%.
31-50
Yikes, one good call out of 9, that number could lift to 3 out of 9 but it's still a very poor return, I might need to make some adjustment to my metrics here.
51-rookie
This has been a pretty good return, 5 guns in Steven, Menegola, Daniel, Doedee, Byrne-Jones & one best 22 ruck in Meek. Out of 23 selections that's a solid return. The numbers could improve if Hayden or Joyce make it. For the moment it's 6 out of 22, so I reckon we're travelling at roughly 24%.
If I tally every pick from 30 onwards it's 7 out of 31 or 23% strike rate, I suspect that's probably close enough to the AFL average.
Importantly, did I get an AFL team out of my 49 selections?
Backs - Darcy Byrne-Jones Jacob Weitering Tom Doedee
Half Backs - Luke Ryan Brennan Cox Caleb Daniel
Centre - Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera Ben Hobbs Sam Powell-Pepper
Half Forwards - Ben Ainsworth Noah Balta Wayne Milera
Forwards - Sam Menegola Harry McKay Josh Rachele
Followers - Lloyd Meek Luke Davies-Uniake Bailey Smith
Bench - Nakia Cockatoo, Kyron Hayden, Buku Khamis, Josh Rotham
Sub - Lewis Taylor
That's an ok looking team, interestingly I didn't have much left in the kitty, but I reckon it's a reasonably well balanced side.
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