Priority picks and 8th spot - last 11 years

[Tigerfan]

browsing the ladders from recent years since 1995 when they introduced 16 teams and a final 8.

http://stats.rleague.com/afl/seas/season_idx.html

I was thinking about the new priority pick rules and what a team needs to get into the finals

1995 - Fitzroy 2 ------ Bris 10
1996 - Fitzroy 2 ----- Haw 11.5
1997 - Melb'n 4 ----- Bris 10.5%*
1998 - Brisb 5.5 ----- Ess 12%
1999 - Coll 4 --------- Syd 11
2000 - St.k 2.5 ------- Hawl 12
2001 - Freo 2 /St.k 4 - Adel 12
2002 - Carl 3 -----------WCE 11%
2003 - Carl 4 /WBD 3.5 - ESS 13
2004 - Haw 4/ Rich 4 - Ess 12
2005 - Carl 4.5 ----------Port 11.5

*the % sign indicates that percentage seperated 8th and 9th positions

Had the priority pick rule in it's curent form been introduced in 1995, the first round priority pick would have occured only 3 times Fitzroy 96(RIP) St.k 01 and Carlton 03.

3 times instead of the 20 something? times it has been used.

As for 8th spot...the mode score (most frequent) position is 12 wins.
the mean (average) and also the medium (middle score) is 11.5.

Ergo, if a team wins twelve games and holds a decent percentage then they will usually qualify for the finals.

 

[Skills]

DDT, the data you have presented is interesting, but I dont think you have driven your point strongly enough re priority picks;
Are you saying, the change of priority pick system (if introduced in 95) would have enabled more talent spread across the other teams?
If so, then it would make interesting reading to see how the fortunes of some clubs may have changed, if they were entitled to a player selected as a priority.

As for the comparison made of 8th spot, are you able to clarify the 11.5 figure shown against Port Adelaide in 2005 and 12 figure for Collingwood in 2000?

 

[Tigerfan]

Are you saying, the change of priority pick system (if introduced in 95) would have enabled more talent spread across the other teams?

These numbers include Carlton's penalty of 1 priority pick and 2 first round picks for salary cap breaches. 
If carlton hadn't been penalised there would have been 17 additional picks.   
From 97 - 05, 16 extra top 6 picks were handed out to 9 clubs: st.k 3; melb, coll, freo, haw 2; wce, WBD, Rich carl  1.   
if the new system had been used from 97 to 05: only 1 extra top 6 pick (no 5 in 2001- X. Clarke, St.k) would have ever been given.
Back date that to 95 when the top 8 and ladder of 16 was first introduced then Fitzroy could have picks 1 and 2 in 95 and 96 under the old and the new rules.
If the new rules had been installed in 97 the draft assistance would have equalled 1 priority (top 6) pick plus 10 early 2nd round picks instead of 15 early first round top 6 picks.   
 

If so, then it would make interesting reading to see how the fortunes of some clubs may have changed, if they were entitled to a player selected as a priority.

         OLD RULES                                          NEW RULES

97 - Melb: 1,2                                        I    Melb: 1,17   
98 - ----------------------                           I    -----------------
99 - Coll: 1,3/ Freo 2,4                          I    Coll: 1,17
00 - St.K: 1,2                                         I    St.K: 1,17
01 - Freo: 1,4/ St.K: 2,5/ WCE: 3,6        I    Freo: 2,18/ St.K: 1, 3
02 - Carl: 1*, 2*                                    I     Carl: 1, 17
03 - Dogs: 1,4/ Carl: 2, 5*/ Melb: 3,6    I     Carl: 1,3 Dogs: 2, 17
04 - Rich: 1,4/ Haw: 2,5/ WBD: 3,6        I     Rich: 1,17/ Haw: 2,18
05 - Carl: 1,4/ Coll: 2,5/ Haw: 3,6          I     Carl 1, 17

*Picks removed as a penalty for salary cap breaches.

As for the comparison made of 8th spot, are you able to clarify the 11.5 figure shown against Port Adelaide in 2005 and 12 figure for Collingwood in 2000?

My mistake...sorry, Collingwood 2000 was actually hawthorn
2000 Hawthorn - 12 wins - 48 points
2005 Port -  11 wins - 1 draw - 46 points

 

[Skills]

Then if this is all true DDT, under the new rules, Tambling, Franklin, Josh Kennedy, Didak, & Koschitzke would all be at different clubs - This opens the arguement/ debate for the new rules.

At the time when Richmond was awarded priority picks, we needed them badly, along with Hawthorn, Collingwood & St Kilda.

The flaw in the system was exsposed last year, when Collingwood (with a half decent list) were able to benefit with priority picks. Yet, they did have a poor season and yes, deserved them under the current rule system.

With many Brisbane Lion players nearing the end of their careers, this club will struggle to find the prize draft selections unless they bottom out. Even if they do, they will find it difficult to select the cream - It will take several years. Brisbane will not have the luxury of priority picks that enabled them to select players like Voss, Leppitsh & Buckley over a decade ago.

In a twist to my discussion, the strategic positioning of 2 or even 3 clubs with priority picks, will make selecting the best players even more difficult. In the case of 2004, Richmond, Hawthorn & Footscray focused alot of energy on the first 6 selections - It was cat & mouse stuff, with only Footscray knowing too well, the selection of Griffen was enough.

With this year's draft progressing consecutively from 1 to 16, the task to select the best kids is made even more difficult, thus introducing the likelyhood of error. Therefore, if 3 teams have priority picks, then selections 17 - 22, could well be the breathing space for some.

Now before we dwell into previous drafts and look at how many AFL stars were selected b/t 17 and 22, it would be unfair to make this comparison, due to the variables being described here.

The uncertaintly of the Nat. Draft is the biggest risk faced by all clubs when recruiting - The change of draft rules increases this uncertainty and forces clubs to speculate even further.

 

[Ready]

We won twelve games in 1998. Stick on a percentage symbol.

Either Hawthorn or the Bulldogs finished eighth in 2000. Think it was Hawthorn. Collingwood did not make the finals that year.

 

[Tigermad2005]

Then if this is all true DDT, under the new rules, Tambling, Franklin, Josh Kennedy, Didak, & Koschitzke would all be at different clubs - This opens the arguement/ debate for the new rules.

At the time when Richmond was awarded priority picks, we needed them badly.

And we still do.

 

[Tigerfan]

We won twelve games in 1998. Stick on a percentage symbol.

Either Hawthorn or the Bulldogs finished eighth in 2000. Think it was Hawthorn. Collingwood did not make the finals that year.

you're correct on both points ready...skills already got me on point 2 but i'd forgotten to change it.
Thanks